Over the past three months, incoming U.S. economic data continue to show robust growth in the labor market, household consumption, and business investment, even as inflation remains well below its peak. Although headline GDP growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter, underlying demand from households and businesses remained remarkably strong. Moreover, the pace of job growth picked up in early 2024, prime-age labor supply improved, and the unemployment rate continued to remain low. It is likely that the health of the labor market is buttressing private demand and, with it, economic growth in 2024. ... (full story)