UK Retail Sales Overview
The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0830 GMT, are expected to come in at 0.0% m/m in August, following a +0.2% figure seen in July. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 2.9% over the year in the reported month, down from 3.3% booked previously.
Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen flat (0.0%) m/m while rising 2.6% y/y.
Deviation impact on GBP/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.
How could it affect GBP/USD?
FXStreet’s Analyst Anil Panchal notes: “… an upward sloping trend-line since September 12 still holds the downside confined around 1.2455, a break of which could call sellers targeting 1.2310/05 confluence that comprises 200-bar exponential moving average (EMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of current month upside. However, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level close to 1.2390 and September 05 high near 1.2355 could offer intermediate halts during the south-run. Alternatively, pair’s rise above latest high around 1.2530 paves the way for a fresh rally towards mid-July peak nearing 1.2580.”
However, the main market driver for the pound is likely to be the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision due later today at 1100 GMT.
Key Notes
GBP/USD forecast: Bulls await a move beyond 100-DMA, UK data/BoE eyed for fresh impetus
GBP Futures: extra gains stay on the pipeline
Forex Today: Oct RBA rate cut calls hit Aussie; UK data BOE in spotlight
About the UK Retail Sales
The retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds below 1.0750 ahead of key US data
EUR/USD trades in a tight range below 1.0750 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar struggles to gather strength ahead of key PCE Price Index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, and helps the pair hold its ground.
GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2500, eyes on US PCE data
GBP/USD fluctuates at around 1.2500 in the European session on Friday following the three-day rebound. The PCE inflation data for March will be watched closely by market participants later in the day.
Gold clings to modest daily gains at around $2,350
Gold stays in positive territory at around $2,350 after closing in positive territory on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges lower ahead of US PCE Price Index data, allowing XAU/USD to stretch higher.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.