• Euro zone March economic sentiment falls to 107.3 from 107.9 in February, below median forecast of 107.5. Business climate deteriorates to 1.41 in March, down from revised 1.46 in Febraury. Slightly above median forecast of 1.40.
  • Greek FinMin: Could use privatisation proceeds to buy back debt
  • Swiss KOF leading growth indicator 2.24 in March, up from revised 2.19 in February (initial 2.18) Stronger than median forecast of 2.15 (EUR/CHF traded lower on data)
  • Irish EconMin: Expect stress tests to reveal need for new capital in banks
  • Portugal hints at deficit revision – WSJ
  • Bank of Spain sees GDP growth at 0.8% in 2011
  • UK service sector output +1.3% m/m in January vs -1.1% in December. Highest m/m rate since July 2002
  • UK CBI retail sales balance +15 in March, up from +6 in February and well above median forecast of flat
  • ONS estimates UK budget measures will add 0.29% to CPI. Biggest impact from tobacco duty
  • ECB’s Bini Smaghi; Coming years are likely to be just as challeging as recent years
  • EU Commission: Greece is implementing adjustment plan, so things are going well

Well I think it was kinda interesting. EUR/USD sits at 1.4080, hardly changed from around 1.4075 when I arrived. We did rally above 1.4100 for a little while. The move seemed to coincide with comment from Greek FinMin re Greece using privatisation proceeds for buying back debt.

What was interesting though, was that Middle Eastern selling was notable into the rally. In recent weeks/months Middle Eastern buying has been a main support for the pairing. Was this just a one off, maybe a little profit taking, or was it a sea change. Only time will tell.

Buy orders clustered 1.4040/50 and more 1.4000/20. Stops below there and through 1.3980. Sell orders remain clustered up at 1.4145/55, stops through 1.4160.

Cable has had a good morning, up at 1.6060 from early 1.5995. Early aggressive buying of the GBP/JPY cross by hedge funds lent support out of the gate. Some decent data (see above) helped underpin the move.

We got to 1.6082 before slipping back. Reports have China lined up on the offer above 1.6080. Interesting again. Something of a change, as recent reports have had them buying dips.

USD/JPY up at 83.10 from early 82.90. US investment bank notable buyer early. Hedge funds also seen buying GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY crosses.

Buy orders 82.50/60, light stops below. Buy stops seen through 83.30 and more through 83.70 (83.68 is the 200 dma)

AUD/USD little changed at 1.0310. Talk of 1.0350 barrier option interest, not said to be overly large.