Fed's Goolsbee
Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says:
- We've had very substantial progress over a long-term basis on inflation
- Even with January PCE data showing a month of rebound, should be careful to extrapolate
- There is element of truth that disinflation of 2023 was supply chain repair
- Should be careful with the argument that supply change is now fixed.
- Should not expect more benefit in 2024
- Impact on supply shock on inflation takes time.
- Suggests benefits of supply chain disinflation are still to come.
- Lags on supply shock from labor on inflation are probably long.
- As of labor supply shocks probably have a longer lasting effect on inflation then supply chain shocks
- If substantial productivity growth continues, that would have an impact on monetary policy.
- What I'm watching the most is why hasn't housing inflation improved more than it has
- There is a risk of betting against the Fed being commitment to doing what it says
- Rates are pretty restrictive.
- I still think the question is how long do we want to remain in this restrictive
Goolsbee is a voting member and is mostly considered a dove.
