(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari celebrated the recent pullback in inflation, though he noted the central bank has not yet reached its goal. 

“We’re not all the way there yet, but we’ve made a lot of progress on inflation,” Kashkari said Tuesday at an event in Mankato, Minnesota. “If we just think we’re going to continue what we’ve been experiencing, we’re on track to get back to our 2% target,” he said, pointing to three- and six-month inflation measures as “basically” at 2%.

Against a backdrop of a strong labor market, Kashkari said it “looks pretty promising” that the US will avoid a recession this year. That said, he flagged the risk of geopolitical turmoil on the global and domestic economy. 

In an essay published Monday, Kashkari said policymakers have time to assess incoming data before they start lowering interest rates, citing changes in the post-pandemic economy.

“We are pressing our feet on the brakes, but there has been a surge of supply into our economy,” he said, noting that most of the progress made on inflation has stemmed from supply side dynamics. 

Fed officials have left interest rates unchanged since July and have signaled the central bank’s next move is likely a cut. Several officials — including Chair Jerome Powell — have indicated they’re not in a rush to do so, helping shift market expectations for the timing of the first interest-rate cut toward May or June.

Kashkari described himself presently as on the “more hawkish” side among his colleagues.

Powell has said twice in the past week that he does not believe policymakers will reach the necessary level of confidence regarding inflation’s path to lower rates at its March gathering.

(Adds additional comments from Kashkari beginning in fifth paragraph.)

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