(Bloomberg) -- Traders pared expectations for interest-rate cuts at major central banks this year after fresh data suggesting greater resilience among global economies.

Money markets priced in 139 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, versus 145 basis points Wednesday, after a private job report showed US companies ramped up hiring in December. The odds of a rate cut in March, the earliest time traders expect the easing cycle to start, slid to about 64%, compared with 70% a day earlier. 

US Treasuries fell across the curve, with 10-year yields rising 8 basis points to about 4%. In Europe, the German 10-year yield rose 11 basis points to 2.14%, putting it on track for the biggest increase since July.  

Investors have been reducing their bets on aggressive monetary easing by the world’s major central banks since the start of the year. Those moves got a boost on Thursday after data showed the labor market remains relatively robust and European business surveys were revised up. 

US private payrolls increased 164,000 last month, the most since August, according to figures published Thursday by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. 

The figures come ahead of the government’s jobs report on Friday. The release is projected to show private US employers added some 130,000 positions last month.

With a set of updates that reinforce the labor market’s strength, nothing in the data “would suggest any urgency from policymakers to begin normalizing rates lower during the first quarter,” Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note.

The bond market started the day with gains but swung to losses after the PMI revisions in Europe. While those figures still point to a contraction, they suggest the UK and core euro-area economies were stronger than initially thought. Money markets priced in 152 basis points of easing from the ECB this year, about 15 basis points less than on Wednesday. 

The global debt market has had a shaky start to the year, with investors weighing whether the sharp rally in late 2023 went too far. ECB officials including Christine Lagarde have repeatedly stressed that it’s too early to be contemplating rate cuts. 

In the minutes of the December Fed meeting released Wednesday, US policymakers agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance “for some time,” while acknowledging they were probably at the peak rate and would begin cutting in 2024.

Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services, said further volatility is likely given that many investors are readying for a sharp easing of rates — a scenario only likely during an economic recession.

“That skew in positioning, and a myriad of economic uncertainties look to be a seedbed for volatility, given that central banks remain quite literal in terms of their adherence to 2% inflation targets,” he said. 

(Updates with latest moves throughout, adds additional comment.)

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