Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY rejected at the peak from 3rd October where market went crazy forming this tall candle marking a range that USDJPY needs to break for direction. 150.15 to the upside and 147.30 to the downside.
However, if USDJPY is breaking below its rising trendline since the forming of the candle it could be an indication of USDJPY testing the lower band of the range.
A close above 150.15 is likely to see USDJPY shooting up to 2022 peak at around 152.
RSI has been showing divergence (i.e., imbalance where the strength indicating is declining when instrument is making new higher highs) for the past couple of months indicating weakening of the bullish trend. A correction is needed.
If USDJPY is breaking below the rising trend line the lower band of the range at 147.30 is likely to be tested.
However, if USDJPY breaks higher closing above 150.15 that divergence is likely to be cancelled paving the road to 152
EURJPY was once again rejected at key resistance at around 159.75. Uptrend is intact however, EURJPY is above the Cloud (Shaded area) i.e., in bullish trend and sentiment indicating the cross could have another go at the resistance shortly.
A close above 159.75 could fuel a rally higher to 161.80 -163.90
The RSI has broken above its falling trendline and above 60 threshold i.e., now showing positive sentiment indicating EURJPY is likely to break higher
If EURJPY is sliding back below 156.75 support at around 155.52 is likely to come under pressure
GBPJPY is caught range bound between 179.80 and 183.90. Break out needed for direction.
A break above 184 is likely to fuel a rally to August peak around 186.75 possibly shooting higher to 188.82 level
CHFJPY broke above resistance at around 166.58 a few days ago. It could very well test the 166.58 level from the upper side before moving higher.
RSI is supporting higher CHFJPY levels. A bullish move to the 1.618 projection at 170.72 is in the cards.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.