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Tankan Outline (September 2023)

October 2, 2023
Bank of Japan
Research and Statistics Department

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total (Response
rate)
All Enterprises 3,755 5,356 9,111 ( 99.4%)
All Enterprises of which Large Enterprises 958 852 1,810 ( 99.2%)
Medium-sized Enterprises 999 1,542 2,541 ( 99.4%)
Small Enterprises 1,798 2,962 4,760 ( 99.4%)

[Responding Period: August 29 to September 29]

Memo: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses

Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/U.S. dollar
  June 2023 Survey Sept. 2023 Survey
FY 2022 131.19 -
FY 2022 1H 129.60 -
2H 132.79 -
FY 2023 132.43 135.75
FY 2023 1H 132.60 135.62
2H 132.27 135.88
Table: Average of predicted exchange rates of all enterprises for overall businesses yen/euro
  June 2023 Survey Sept. 2023 Survey
FY 2022 138.21 -
FY 2022 1H 136.53 -
2H 139.89 -
FY 2023 140.11 144.62
FY 2023 1H 140.28 144.58
2H 139.95 144.66

Business Conditions

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing   ( 9)      
5 9 +4 10 +1
Nonmanufacturing   ( 20)      
23 27 +4 21 -6

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing   ( 2)      
0 0 0 2 +2
Nonmanufacturing   ( 12)      
17 19 +2 14 -5

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Manufacturing   ( -1)      
-5 -5 0 -2 +3
Nonmanufacturing   ( 7)      
11 12 +1 8 -4

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises DI ("favorable" - "unfavorable"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
All industries   ( 7)      
8 10 +2 8 -2

(Notes)

  1. FY : Fiscal year (April - March of the following year)
    1H : First half (April - September)
    2H : Second half (October - March of the following year)
  2. Figures in parentheses are forecasts made in the previous survey.

Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (Manufacturing)

Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services

Table: Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products and Services DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -9 -9 0 -7 +2
Small Enterprises -18 -21 -3 -20 +1

Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products

Table: Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products DI ("excess demand" - "excess supply"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -6 -10 -4 -8 +2
Small Enterprises -13 -15 -2 -15 0

Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise

Table: Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 20 21 +1 - -
Small Enterprises 18 19 +1 - -

Wholesalers' Inventory Level

Table: Wholesalers' Inventory Level DI ("excessive or somewhat excessive" - "insufficient or somewhat insufficient"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 10 14 +4 - -
Small Enterprises 14 17 +3 - -

Change in Output Prices

Table: Change in Output Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 34 32 -2 26 -6
Small Enterprises 36 30 -6 30 0

Change in Input Prices

Table: Change in Input Prices DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 52 48 -4 42 -6
Small Enterprises 66 61 -5 57 -4

Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 11.3 - 2.1 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 10.1 - 1.6 -0.5

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 8.0 - 2.2 -1.0
Nonmanufacturing 7.2 - 3.3 +0.8

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 6.1 - 2.1 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 6.0 - 1.0 +0.7

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries 8.7 - 1.9 +0.1

(Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and previous survey.

Current Profits

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 11.7 - -5.0 +2.1
Nonmanufacturing 32.7 - -0.8 +4.9

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -3.4 - -3.4 +5.4
Nonmanufacturing 18.0 - -1.2 +4.0

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing -7.8 - -2.5 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing 8.4 - -1.5 +2.1

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries 16.2 - -2.7 +3.3

Ratio of Current Profit to Sales

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2022
Changes FY 2023
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 10.52 - 9.78 +0.19
Nonmanufacturing 7.61 - 7.43 +0.38

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2022
Changes FY 2023
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 5.55 - 5.25 +0.32
Nonmanufacturing 4.11 - 3.93 +0.12

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2022
Changes FY 2023
(Forecast)
Changes
Manufacturing 4.24 - 4.05 -0.01
Nonmanufacturing 3.79 - 3.69 +0.05

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises %, %points
  FY 2022
Changes FY 2023
(Forecast)
Changes
All industries 6.64 - 6.35 +0.20

Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses*

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 6.5 - 20.0 +0.5
Nonmanufacturing 14.8 - 10.1 0.0
All industries 11.7 - 13.6 +0.2

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 10.2 - 16.2 -2.7
Nonmanufacturing 2.3 - 15.8 +1.7
All industries 5.2 - 15.9 0.0

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 17.2 - -3.0 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing -3.0 - 14.8 +8.6
All industries 3.9 - 8.0 +5.5

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 9.0 - 15.0 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing 9.3 - 11.8 +1.7
All industries 9.2 - 13.0 +1.0

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies 8.8 - 13.3 +0.9
  • * Excludes software and R&D investment.

Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses

Large Enterprises

Table: Large Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 8.4 - 12.3 +1.1
Nonmanufacturing 8.7 - 14.1 +0.1
All industries 8.5 - 13.1 +0.7

Medium-sized Enterprises

Table: Medium-sized Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 8.2 - 16.6 -2.6
Nonmanufacturing 5.3 - 16.2 +0.6
All industries 6.5 - 16.3 -0.8

Small Enterprises

Table: Small Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 9.6 - 5.0 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing -2.9 - 15.8 +6.9
All industries 2.0 - 11.3 +3.9

All Enterprises

Table: All Enterprises year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
Manufacturing 8.5 - 12.0 +0.5
Nonmanufacturing 6.2 - 14.7 +1.2
All industries 7.4 - 13.3 +0.8

Reference

Table: Reference year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
Revision
rate
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Revision
rate
All industries including Financial institutions and Business consultants & pure holding companies 7.6 - 12.8 +0.6

Production Capacity (Manufacturing)

Table: Production Capacity (Manufacturing) DI ("excessive capacity" - "insufficient capacity"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 2 1 -1 -1 -2
Medium-sized Enterprises 3 3 0 1 -2
Small Enterprises 0 1 +1 -1 -2
All Enterprises 1 2 +1 -1 -3

Employment Conditions (All industries)

Table: Employment Conditions (All industries) DI ("excessive employment" - "insufficient employment"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises -23 -24 -1 -26 -2
Medium-sized Enterprises -31 -34 -3 -37 -3
Small Enterprises -35 -36 -1 -40 -4
All Enterprises -32 -33 -1 -37 -4

Financial Position (All industries)

Table: Financial Position (All industries) DI ("easy" - "tight"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 13 12 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 13 15 +2
Small Enterprises 8 8 0
All Enterprises 11 11 0

Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries)

Table: Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) DI ("accommodative" - "severe"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 15 14 -1
Medium-sized Enterprises 18 18 0
Small Enterprises 15 14 -1
All Enterprises 16 16 0

Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries)

Table: Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) DI ("rise" - "fall"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Dec. 2023
Survey
(Forecast)
Change
between
Sept. and
Dec.
Large Enterprises 13 19 +6 26 +7
Medium-sized Enterprises 10 14 +4 23 +9
Small Enterprises 9 12 +3 23 +11
All Enterprises 10 14 +4 24 +10

Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises)

Table: Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) (Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises) DI ("easy" - "severe"), % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Large Enterprises 15 12 -3

Inflation Outlook of Enterprises
(Reference) The Average of Enterprises' Inflation Outlook

Output Prices

Large Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 2.5 2.4 -0.1
3 years ahead 2.8 2.9 +0.1
5 years ahead 3.0 3.1 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 2.1 2.2 +0.1
3 years ahead 2.8 2.8 0.0
5 years ahead 3.2 3.4 +0.2
Small Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 3.7 3.3 -0.4
3 years ahead 4.5 4.4 -0.1
5 years ahead 5.1 5.1 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 3.2 3.1 -0.1
3 years ahead 4.1 4.2 +0.1
5 years ahead 4.8 5.0 +0.2
All Enterprises rate of changes relative to the current level, %, % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
All industries 1 year ahead 3.0 2.8 -0.2
3 years ahead 3.8 3.8 0.0
5 years ahead 4.4 4.4 0.0

General Prices

Large Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 2.2 2.1 -0.1
3 years ahead 1.7 1.8 +0.1
5 years ahead 1.6 1.7 +0.1
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 2.0 2.0 0.0
3 years ahead 1.6 1.6 0.0
5 years ahead 1.4 1.5 +0.1
Small Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
Manufacturing 1 year ahead 2.9 2.8 -0.1
3 years ahead 2.4 2.4 0.0
5 years ahead 2.3 2.3 0.0
Nonmanufacturing 1 year ahead 2.8 2.8 0.0
3 years ahead 2.4 2.5 +0.1
5 years ahead 2.3 2.3 0.0
All Enterprises annual percent rate change, %, % points
  June 2023
Survey
Sept. 2023
Survey
Change
between
June and
Sept.
All industries 1 year ahead 2.6 2.5 -0.1
3 years ahead 2.2 2.2 0.0
5 years ahead 2.1 2.1 0.0

Overseas Business Activities

Number of Sample Enterprises

Table: Number of Sample Enterprises
  Enterprises (Response rate)
Manufacturing 396 ( 97.5%)
Manufacturing Basic materials 143 ( 97.9%)
Processing 253 ( 97.2%)
Nonmanufacturing 186 ( 88.7%)
All industries 582 ( 94.7%)

[Responding Period: August 29 to September 29]

Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales

Table: Consolidated Sales / Overseas Sales / Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Sales Overseas Sales Share of Overseas Sales in Total Sales
FY 2022
FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2022
FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2022
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 15.7 2.2 18.3 1.0 59.95 59.25
Nonmanufacturing 15.7 1.4 25.8 -0.5 28.21 27.69
All industries 15.7 1.8 20.2 0.6 45.75 45.18

Consolidated Current Profits

Table: Consolidated Current Profits year-to-year % change
  FY 2022
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 0.4 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing 21.0 -7.4
All industries 8.4 -3.5

Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment

Table: Consolidated Fixed Investment / Overseas Fixed Investment / Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment year-to-year % change
  Consolidated Fixed Investment Overseas Fixed Investment Share of Overseas Fixed Investment in Total Fixed Investment
FY 2022
FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2022
FY 2023
(Forecast)
FY 2022
FY 2023
(Forecast)
Manufacturing 21.1 15.0 22.5 1.5 38.31 33.83
Nonmanufacturing 9.2 6.5 17.9 13.8 17.91 19.14
All industries 14.9 10.7 21.0 5.5 27.94 26.64