Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURJPY likely to be testing key strong resistance at 158
USDJPY in uptrend, 143.40 resistance is key for further upside
AUDJPY in corrective downtrend. Could be caught range bound
GBPJPY rang bound between 179.50 and 184. Break out needed for direction
USDJPY is once again testing the 0.786 retracement ant resistance at around 143.40. USDJPY is in an uptrend and RSI is positive supporting the bullish view of a likely break of the resistance.
A close above 143.40 is likely to fuel a rally to the 1.382 projection at 148 with resistance at around 145. If USDJPY slides back below 141.50 is could be caught range bound between 143.40 and 138 for quite some time
To reverse the uptrend a close below 137.20
EURJPY is once again trying to test the 158 strong resistance.
RSI is still positive but below the 60 threshold just around its falling trendline. A close above 60 is likely to push EURJPYabove the 158 level.
If EURJPY is breaking above 158 a swift move to the 1.382 projection at 160.60 is likely, but higher levels to the 1.618 projection at around 162.15 would be in the cards
A close below 155.50 could push EURJPY back down to 152.50-152.00
AUDJPY seems to be continuing its corrective downtrend. The lower part of the Cloud is still giving some support but a close below could push AUDJPY down to around 90 support area.
A close above 95.85 is needed for AUDJPY to turn bullish with potential to take out the June peak at around 97.67.
The positive RSI is indicating AUDJPY could reverse its short-term corrective picture but RSI needs to close above 60 threshold to confirm that. First indication of that scenario to unfold would be if RSI is closing above its falling trendline and AUJPY is closing above its falling trendline
GBPJPY is caught range bound between 179.50 and 184. The swift selloff and bounce down to around 176.20 seems to be an outlier – a false break.
A break above 184 is likely to fuel a rally to resistance at around 188.80 which is also the 1.618 projection of the July peak to trough move.
If GBPJPY closes below 179.50 selling pressure down to around 176-174 could be seen.
Key indicator is RSI, can it close back above 60 threshold or not
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.