The Federal Reserve is set to release the deliberations of June’s interest rate decision by central bank committee members.
Here are some central bank watchers’ comments on what to expect:
HSBC - At the 14 June FOMC meeting, the Committee voted unanimously to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.00-5.25%. In the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that “nearly all” FOMC participants expect it will be appropriate to raise policy rates somewhat further this year. Indeed, the median policymaker projection showed a federal funds target range of 5.50-5.75% for the end of 2023. However, Powell said that it was judged “prudent” to hold interest rates steady at the June meeting “considering how far and how fast we’ve moved.”
The minutes of the June FOMC meeting should show a range of views with respect to whether additional rate hikes are likely to be warranted at upcoming meetings as the policymakers balance the risks of elevated inflation against potential downside risks related to banking sector stresses, tighter credit conditions, and commercial real estate.
TD Securities - Despite a still strong macro backdrop ahead of the June FOMC meeting Fed officials paused rate hikes for the first time in this cycle, though the strong data did lead to positive revisions in the SEP and new projections of additional rate increases. We expect this Wednesday's FOMC minutes to expand on the reasoning and likely split discussions behind this policy shift, with the bulk of the Committee still leaning hawkish amid lingering uncertainties about the economic outlook.
BofA Global Research – The FOMC Minutes are expected to show that members agreed to slow the pace of hikes, while still thinking more hikes were appropriate. They will likely also show that many
participants desired to maintain maximum optionality around the future path of monetary policy, which can help explain the hawkish guidance despite not hiking in June.
Barclays Research – We will be looking for nuance in the decision to maintain the Fed Funds target range at 5.00-5.25% in June, but we expect evidence of broad support for a rate hike in July.
Daiwa Capital Markets - If we were to share one reservation about recent actions by Fed officials, it would be regarding the decision to hold rates steady in June. We are sympathetic the view that policy acts with lags, and that Fed officials want time to assess the cumulative effects of policy tightening thus far, but perhaps hiking in June and July ahead of a pause in the fall would have circumvented any confusion from a very brief interlude before the resumption of hikes. Given the hawkish shift in the dot plot and subsequent comments by Chair Powell, it appears that a hike in June would have both aligned with the views of many policymakers and found easy justification given readings on the labour market and inflation.
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case 'CheckChannelStatus': check_channel_status(msg.data); break;
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case 'CloseSocket': close_socket(); break;
case 'RequestMessageSearch': request_message_search(msg.data); break;
case 'RequestMoreMessages': request_more_messages(msg.data); break;
case 'PlayerDisconnectedAnnoucementTimeoutStart': player_disconnected_annoucement_timeout_start(); break;
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function player_log_response(data) {
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data_array.respond_to_socket = data.respond_to_socket;
data_array.player_socket_id = data.player_socket_id;
data_array.logs = data.logs;
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function request_message_search(data) {
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function check_channel_status(data) {
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function check_channel_status_response(data) {
postMessage({ action: 'CheckChannelStatusReponse', stream_status: data.stream_status.status, onair: data.stream_status.onair, connected: data.stream_status.connected });
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function join_publisher_channel(data) {
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data_array.single_sign_on = data.single_sign_on;
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data_array.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
data_array.current_page = data.current_page;
data_array.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
data_array.from_react = data.from_react;
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postMessage({action: 'PublisherChannelJoined' });
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function session_static_info(msg) {
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function connect_to_distributor(msg) {
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socket.onopen = function(event) { request_server_assignment(); };
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connect_to_assigned_server();
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socket.onopen = function(event) {
postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Connected to server "+assigned_server });
console.log("Connected to server "+assigned_server);
postMessage({ action: 'ConnectedToAssigned' });
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postMessage({ action: 'RejoinPlayerChannel' });
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case 'reconnect': postMessage({ action: 'VisibleConsole',console_string: "Reconnected" }); break;
case 'reload': postMessage({ action: 'Reload' }); break;
case 'start_log_response': start_log_response(data); break;
case 'application_refresh_start': application_refresh_start(data); break;
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case 'player_log_request':
case 'check_channel_status_response': check_channel_status_response(data); break;
case 'PlayerLogRequest':
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case 'new_latest_news':
case 'delete_report':
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case 'add_ref_doc':
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case 'calendar_insert':
case 'calendar_delete':
case 'new_note':
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case 'BroadcasterStarted':
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case 'added_cme_report':
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case 'added_cme_commentary':
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postMessage({ action: 'LSSocketConnectionError' });
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reconnection_delay = reconnection_delay*reconnectionDelayGrowFactor;
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socket.onmessage = function(event) {};
socket.onerror = function(event) {};
socket.close(1000);
console.log('Socket Closed');
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function pass_straight_to_post_message(data) {
data.action = data.type;
postMessage(data);
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function join_player_channel(data) {
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data_array.username = data.username;
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session_info_interval();
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function application_refresh_stop(data) {
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function set_static_session_info(data) {
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session_info.browser_name = data.browser_name;
session_info.user_agent = data.user_agent;
session_info.browser_version = data.browser_version;
session_info.cookies_enabled = data.cookies_enabled;
session_info.platform = data.platform;
session_info.player_version = data.player_version;
session_info.stream = data.stream;
session_info.connection_protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.delay_target = data.delay_target;
session_info.session_email = data.session_email;
session_info.remote_ip = data.remote_ip;
session_info.php_session_id = data.php_session_id;
session_info.application_name = data.application_name;
session_info.http_referrer = data.http_referrer;
}
function start_log() {
var session_start_date = new Date();
session_start_time = session_start_date.getTime();
var months = ['Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'];
var session_start_date_string = session_start_date.getDate() + " " + months[session_start_date.getMonth()] + " " + session_start_date.getFullYear();
var data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_start_log';
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data_array.username = session_info.session_email;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = '';
data_array.session_start_time = (session_start_time/1000).toFixed(0);
data_array.stream_name = session_info.stream;
data_array.session_start_date = session_start_date_string;
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function update_session_info(data) {
var data_array = {};
var msg_string = '';
var current_date = new Date();
var current_time = current_date.getTime();
session_info.protocol = data.protocol;
session_info.curr_delay = (data.effective_latency / 1000).toFixed(2);
session_info.session_length = current_time - session_start_time;
session_info.ping_time = data.ping_time;
session_info.jitter = data.jitter;
session_info.packet_loss = data.packet_loss;
session_info.effective_latency = data.effective_latency;
session_info.mean_opinion_score = data.mean_opinion_score;
session_info.restarts = data.restarts;
if (socket_emits == 0) {
data_array = {};
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data_array.user_email = session_info.session_email;
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data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
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data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
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data_array = {};
data_array.type = 'webrtc_log_data';
data_array.session_id = session_info.session_id;
data_array.php_session_id = session_info.php_session_id;
data_array.connection_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.restarts = session_info.restarts;
data_array.threshold = 0;
data_array.curr_delay = session_info.curr_delay;
data_array.session_length = session_info.session_length;
data_array.date = current_time;
data_array.webrtc_protocol = session_info.protocol;
data_array.ping_time = session_info.ping_time;
data_array.jitter = session_info.jitter;
data_array.packet_loss = session_info.packet_loss;
data_array.effective_latency = session_info.effective_latency;
data_array.mean_opinion_score = session_info.mean_opinion_score;
data_array.stream = session_info.stream;
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socket_emits++;
if (socket_emits == 100) { socket_emits = 0; }
}
The Federal Reserve is set to release the deliberations of June’s interest rate decision by central bank committee members.
Here are some central bank watchers’ comments on what to expect:
HSBC - At the 14 June FOMC meeting, the Committee voted unanimously to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.00-5.25%. In the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that “nearly all” FOMC participants expect it will be appropriate to raise policy rates somewhat further this year. Indeed, the median policymaker projection showed a federal funds target range of 5.50-5.75% for the end of 2023. However, Powell said that it was judged “prudent” to hold interest rates steady at the June meeting “considering how far and how fast we’ve moved.”
The minutes of the June FOMC meeting should show a range of views with respect to whether additional rate hikes are likely to be warranted at upcoming meetings as the policymakers balance the risks of elevated inflation against potential downside risks related to banking sector stresses, tighter credit conditions, and commercial real estate.
TD Securities - Despite a still strong macro backdrop ahead of the June FOMC meeting Fed officials paused rate hikes for the first time in this cycle, though the strong data did lead to positive revisions in the SEP and new projections of additional rate increases. We expect this Wednesday's FOMC minutes to expand on the reasoning and likely split discussions behind this policy shift, with the bulk of the Committee still leaning hawkish amid lingering uncertainties about the economic outlook.
BofA Global Research – The FOMC Minutes are expected to show that members agreed to slow the pace of hikes, while still thinking more hikes were appropriate. They will likely also show that many
participants desired to maintain maximum optionality around the future path of monetary policy, which can help explain the hawkish guidance despite not hiking in June.
Barclays Research – We will be looking for nuance in the decision to maintain the Fed Funds target range at 5.00-5.25% in June, but we expect evidence of broad support for a rate hike in July.
Daiwa Capital Markets - If we were to share one reservation about recent actions by Fed officials, it would be regarding the decision to hold rates steady in June. We are sympathetic the view that policy acts with lags, and that Fed officials want time to assess the cumulative effects of policy tightening thus far, but perhaps hiking in June and July ahead of a pause in the fall would have circumvented any confusion from a very brief interlude before the resumption of hikes. Given the hawkish shift in the dot plot and subsequent comments by Chair Powell, it appears that a hike in June would have both aligned with the views of many policymakers and found easy justification given readings on the labour market and inflation.