(Bloomberg) -- Britain’s underlying wage growth stagnated after the coronavirus pandemic, a study by the Resolution Foundation showed, casting doubt on concerns that the nation faces an inflationary spiral.

The researcher said its measure of average pay, adjusting for differences in the nature of individual workers, remained 2.7% last year, the same as in 2019 before the coronavirus hit.

Resolution said that higher headline wage growth in official figures is mainly due to the end of the government’s furlough program and out-sized gains in four industries struggling to attract workers. The findings undercut the idea that a surge in pay growth is starting to add to inflationary pressures across the economy.

“Pay growth is best seen as normal rather than exceptional, once the impact of the end of furlough is taken into account,” Nye Cominetti, senior economist at Resolution, said in a statement released on Saturday. 

Resolution expects nominal pay to rise 5% this year, which won’t be enough to make up for an 8% increase in inflation. Those forces together mean living standards are being squeezed by the most on record, threatening to push thousands more families into poverty.

The government reported nominal pay rose 4.1% in the year to January, double the 2% average in the decade prior. Resolution said a quarter of that increase was due to the end of furlough, with workers moving to receiving their full salary instead of 80% when the benefit was in force to protect those unable to work during the pandemic.

Four sectors -- professional services, health and social work, administration, and IT and communications -- accounted for 53% of the aggregate increase in pay even though they make up a third of the workforce, Resolution said.

“This welcome success is driving strong nominal wage growth, but worries it might be too strong are overdone,” Cominetti said.

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