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Spending fuelled post-lockdown bounce

Colin Brinsden, AAP Economics and Business CorrespondentAAP
Economists' forecasts point to a 8.1 per cent increase in retail spending over the last quarter.
Camera IconEconomists' forecasts point to a 8.1 per cent increase in retail spending over the last quarter. Credit: AAP

Retail spending figures will give a clue to how the economy shaped up in the final three months of 2021, while other data may provide an idea of how quickly the unemployment rate will fall below four per cent.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will update its December retail trade report on Monday to include the quarterly spending result.

Household spending makes up a large proportion of the quarterly economic growth result and will give a guide to how the economy bounced back after contracting by 1.9 per cent in the September quarter due to the Delta lockdowns.

While sales dropped 4.4 per cent in the month of December, economists' forecasts point to a 8.1 per cent increase over the quarter.

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RBC Capital Markets chief economist Su-Lin Ong expects quarterly retail trade to rise by eight per cent, which will deliver a strong 1.4 percentage points to the December quarter economic growth result.

The December quarter national accounts are due on March 2.

In its latest forecasts, the Reserve Bank of Australia expects annual economic growth running at five per cent at the end of 2021 compared to 3.9 per cent as of the September quarter.

While the Omicron variant has disrupted activity, RBA governor Philip Lowe expects the economy will still expand in the March quarter.

Other data this week will provide a pointer to how spending is faring in the face of the Omicron variant.

The Commonwealth Bank house spending intentions report for January is due on Tuesday.

Weekly and monthly confidence surveys are also due this week, providing a pointer to how Australians and business are coping under the virus.

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index is due on Tuesday, coming alongside the National Australia Bank's business survey for January.

The broader monthly Westpac consumer sentiment survey is released on Wednesday.

A leading indicator to future employment will come on Monday with the release of the ANZ job advertisement series for January on Monday.

The ABS will release its payroll jobs report on Thursday, which will cover the fortnight to January 15 and is a precursor to the full labour force report for the month due on February 17.

In December the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a 13-year low of 4.2 per cent, fuelling speculation of a rise in the RBA's cash rate this year.

Both the RBA and the federal government expect the jobless rate to fall below four pre cent later this year - the first time in 50 years.

Strong employment figures in the US featured in Friday's Wall Street session, keeping alive expectations of higher interest rates before long.

The US Labor Department'said non-farm payrolls increased by 467,000 jobs in January, compared with expectation for a 150,000 rise. It also revised higher December figures to show the creation of 510,000 jobs, instead of the previously reported 199,000.

US shares managed to finish mixed on Friday, with robust results from Amazon helping to stem the slide.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 21.42 points, or 0.06 per cent, to 35,089.74, while the S&P 500 gained 23.09 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 4,500.53 and the Nasdaq Composite added 219.19 points, or 1.58 per cent, to 14,098.01.

Australia share futures point to weaker start locally on Monday as its own reporting season gets underway.

The futures market showed a 41-point decline, or 0.6 per cent, to 7072.

On Friday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index had closed up 42.1 points, or 0.59 per cent, at 7120.1 points.

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