- The AUD starts the new week on a low note, and bulls will be scraping for positions.
- With a light schedule on the macro calendar for the early week, the Aussie will remain exposed to overall market sentiment.
The Aussie tumbled against the Dollar last week as the Greenback staged a broad-market recovery, and the AUD/USD pair is kicking off the new week of trading near 0.7670.
Last week saw a dovish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as well as softer-than-expected employment figures, and the Australian economy continues to wallow in middling macro figures, which has left the RBA in a holding pattern on rates and monetary policies. Expectations of rate hikes from the RBA have been pushed into far into the future, and despite headwinds to global growth, Australian data continues to lag far behind growth trends and the widening interest rate differential is expected to continue pushing the AUD lower looking forward.
Monday is a quiet showing for the Aussie on the macro calendar, and eyes will be on the quarterly CPI figures early Tuesday, due at 01:30 GMT. The quarter-on-quarter CPI for 2018's first quarter is expected to read at 0.5 percent (prev. 0.6), while the RBA's Trimmed Mean CPI is also forecast at 0.5 percent, a tick upward from the previous reading of 0.4 percent.
AUD/USD analysis: break of 0.7640 exposes 0.7500 figure
AUD/USD Levels to watch
With last week's tumble from the key 0.7800 area near the 200-day SMA, the AUD/USD is pushing back into March lows near 0.7650. Further downside action is likely on the cards, and as FXStreet's Valeria Bednarik noted, "technical readings in the daily chart support such slide as the pair closed well below its 20 DMA, while technical indicators head sharply lower within negative territory. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair is biased lower, given that the Momentum indicator heads sharply lower near oversold territory, the RSI consolidates around 26, while the 20 SMA crossed below the 200 EMA almost vertically, and now stands a couple of pips above the mentioned 0.7740 level."
Support levels: 0.7640 0.7600 0.7565
Resistance levels: 0.7700 0.7740 0.7785
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