forex traders do not predict price
price predicts forex traders
price predicts forex traders
- #61
- Oct 26, 2015 2:22pm Oct 26, 2015 2:22pm
- Joined Mar 2011 | Status: I should be on your ignore list | 5,597 Posts
Create your own technical indicator - like Larry Williams or John Bollinger did.
Try forget everything you ever learnt regarding technical analysis, increase your knowledge of fundamental analysis.
Don't use an indicator that already exists, and don't use any system you read on Forex Factory.
-Liquidity Providers pay people like me to read these forums so they can adjust their algos accordingly.
Try forget everything you ever learnt regarding technical analysis, increase your knowledge of fundamental analysis.
Don't use an indicator that already exists, and don't use any system you read on Forex Factory.
-Liquidity Providers pay people like me to read these forums so they can adjust their algos accordingly.
Create your own technical indicator - like Larry Williams or John Bollinger did. Try forget everything you ever learnt regarding technical analysis, increase your knowledge of fundamental analysis. Don't use an indicator that already exists, and don't use any system you read on Forex Factory. -Liquidity Providers pay people like me to read these forums so they can adjust their algos accordingly.
-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
Here's a starting point. Pull up a chart, take the scroll bar all the way to the left and then start moving it slowly to the right. Analyse, Analyse, Analyse. Looks for repetitive patterns, repetitive setups, points where trade could potentially occur. Continue this until you start to get a few things that stand out. Now work on 1 of those things. Write down a set of rules in bullet or flow chart form, invest in getting a program that you can backtest on ( I have used Forex Tester in the past) and work on it. If after a few thousand bars you start...
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
- #66
- Nov 20, 2015 12:23pm Nov 20, 2015 12:23pm
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Senior Trader | 1,475 Posts
you can use many things, but usually when you think it will go one way, it go the other way
things that tradesrs use are
support and resistance levels,
momentum,
the slope of moving averages,
ma crosses
fibonacci levels
divergence
floor trader pivots
overbought/oversold oscillators such as RSI Stochastics, CCI etc
MACD crosses plus MACD centerline crosses
market structure such as higher highs and higher lows.
I am sure I forgot something, but as you can see there are a lot,
however, using just one of these is not going to cut it,
you might win some but then you lose it all back because none of these are consistent,
you should treat all of these just as a trigger tool to enter the market,
none of these are a complete trading system or methods
these are only addons to an existing trading method,
however, if used in conjunction with eachother they can show better results.
my advise is to learn technical analysis and then use the prooper indicator
in the right market condition.
things that tradesrs use are
support and resistance levels,
momentum,
the slope of moving averages,
ma crosses
fibonacci levels
divergence
floor trader pivots
overbought/oversold oscillators such as RSI Stochastics, CCI etc
MACD crosses plus MACD centerline crosses
market structure such as higher highs and higher lows.
I am sure I forgot something, but as you can see there are a lot,
however, using just one of these is not going to cut it,
you might win some but then you lose it all back because none of these are consistent,
you should treat all of these just as a trigger tool to enter the market,
none of these are a complete trading system or methods
these are only addons to an existing trading method,
however, if used in conjunction with eachother they can show better results.
my advise is to learn technical analysis and then use the prooper indicator
in the right market condition.
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
- #67
- Nov 21, 2015 3:53am Nov 21, 2015 3:53am
- Joined Mar 2011 | Status: I should be on your ignore list | 5,597 Posts
How do forex traders predict price?
Statistically and probabilistically, over a large number of trades - not individually, over specific trades.
Like so many of the subjects widely discussed (often with some disagreement and plenty of confusion) in trading forums, the conversations often conceal the fact that different people are using words with slightly different meanings, understandings and assumptions.
In this case, the word causing the disagreements and confusion is "predicting". The confusion in this thread, and in many others like it, is between individual and collective predicting.
I can't tell whether any individual trade I make will be profitable, but I know with a very high degree of mathematical confidence that the next 200 trades I make will collectively be profitable.
On each individual occasion that one trades, one can't predict the future.
But, given the familiarity and expertise with statistics and probability that every successful trader needs and has, one can confidently predict it collectively, in the long run, over the times ones chooses to trade (and of course that's precisely why one chooses those times to trade). And that's what one needs to be able to do.
i'm starting to find it all very easy
I mean this helpfully and supportively, not impolitely, but your chances of ever deriving steady, monthly income from it will improve hugely, once you really learn to appreciate how difficult it is and what a detailed, experienced and well-developed skill-set it requires.
- #79
- Dec 15, 2015 1:31am Dec 15, 2015 1:31am
How to know when to enter long or short? I don't know how to predict price and always betting. Thank you
Its is impossible to know whether price will go up or down you just need to find some pattern which will shift odds to your favor. Somebody finds them in Fibonacci's, Elliots and other magic waves, somebody works with straddles, others try to trade news, etc..Read FF and Find yours
- #80
- Dec 15, 2015 7:58am Dec 15, 2015 7:58am
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
You can't predict price, You must follow price. Trader must deal with statistics n probabilities. You need to have Risk/Reward in your favor. Best way to make them in your favor is make entries from smaller time frames and exit from larger. I saw how people suggest beginners to use bigger time frames. (for example 4h, daily). I think there is no difference between 4h, daily, 5min. On every chart you see swings and if you use 1 time frame It really decrease your chance to win spread. Between time frames there is only 1 difference - scale. If i would...
(In my humble opinion)
I don't use Risk:Reward and TP.
My system gives sell signal when price is extended to the upside and gives buy signal when price is extended to the downside.
Therefore the Risk:Reward is always good.
I always follow every time frame (TF) and note which TF has what kind of signal (buy or sell).
Every TF has different 'power':
- Monthly is the strongest, it contains average 4 weekly, ~20 daily, ....candle.
- Weekly is the second, it contains 5 daily, 30 H4,.....candle
- Daily is the third, it contains 6 H4, 24 H1, ......candle
...and so on until M1.
Therefore I can measure the overall situation. For example:
- Monthly - buy
- Weekly - buy
- Daily - sell
- H4 - sell
...
than I know it's overall buy, but until Daily buy signal it's not worth buying. When Daily buy signals arrives, than I'm waiting for H4 buy signal...when I get that one too, than I switch into M1/M5/M15/M30/H1 and wait until buy arrives. Than the lower I can buy, the better will be because overextended move fades quickly.
Because the system gives sell signal when price is extended to the upside and vice versa...the method helps to enter into a move even before getting to a break out point...
Till breakout point you can trail the move with stop and even if the breakout is rejected (or opponent signal comes), you will end in positive.
I quit from trades in two way:
- Trailing stop
- If price action let my stops untouched, than I quit from trades, when opposite signal comes.
When opposite signal comes can also mean it is time to trade in the other direction, but it's depending on overall signals/situation.
Therefore the TP is irrelevant.
How signals arrives ideally:
But sometimes they comes together, because different time frame candles can close at one time:
- Every fifth M1 candle close together with M5...every 15th M1 and 3rd M5 close with M15....and so on.
f(z)=z2+c