Forex News
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One evening in March — at 8:41 p.m. Chicago time to be exact — internal warnings flashed within Walmart Inc. about a curious thing happening at hundreds of its stores across the US. Shoppers scanning certain items at self-checkout stands were seeing the wrong prices. Some prices were lower than listed. Others were higher. Unbeknownst to those buying food, ...
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A global malware network responsible for the theft of $5.9 billion in Covid relief funds and tied to other crimes like child exploitation and bomb threats has been shut down, Department of Justice officials announced Wednesday. The DOJ arrested 35-year-old YunHe Wang, a Chinese national who was charged with creating the “botnet,” a kind of malware that ...
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Inflation and wages are kind of a chicken or egg issue. Do higher prices cause higher wages or do higher wages cause higher prices? I suppose it’s probably a little of both. There is an obvious relationship when you look at the data. Here’s a look at year-over-year wage growth versus trailing twelve-month inflation going back to 1965: chart Wages grow ...
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National economic activity continued to expand from early April to mid-May; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts. Most Districts reported slight or modest growth, while two noted no change in activity. Retail spending was flat to up slightly, reflecting lower discretionary spending and heightened price sensitivity among consumers. Auto sales were roughly flat, with a few Districts noting that manufacturers were offering incentives to spur sales. Travel and tourism strengthened across much of the country, boosted by increased leisure and business travel, but hospitality contacts were mixed in their outlooks for the summer season. Demand for nonfinancial services rose, and activity in transportation services was mixed, as port and rail activity increased whereas reports of trucking and freight demand varied. Nonprofits and community organizations cited continued solid demand for their services, and manufacturing activity was widely characterized as flat to up, though two Districts cited declines. Tight credit standards and high interest rates continued to constrain lending growth. Housing demand rose modestly, and single-family construction increased, though there were reports of rising rates impacting sales activity. Conditions in the commercial real estate sector softened amid supply concerns, tight credit conditions, and elevated borrowing costs. Energy activity was largely stable, whereas agricultural reports were mixed, as drought conditions eased in some Districts, but farm finances/incomes remained a concern. Overall outlooks grew somewhat more pessimistic amid reports of rising uncertainty and greater downside risks post: FED BEIGE BOOK: PRICES INCREASED AT A MODEST PACE OVER THE REPORTING PERIOD. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: OVERALL OUTLOOKS GREW SOMEWHAT MORE PESSIMISTIC AMID REPORTS OF RISING UNCERTAINTY AND GREATER DOWNSIDE RISKS. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: NATIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO EXPAND FROM EARLY APRIL TO MID-MAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS VARIED ACROSS INDUSTRIES AND DISTRICTS. post: FED'S BEIGE BOOK: EMPLOYMENT ROSE AT A SLIGHT PACE OVERALL. EIGHT DISTRICTS REPORTED NEGLIGIBLE TO MODEST JOB GAINS,AND THE REMAINING FOUR DISTRICTS REPORTED NO CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT.
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The USD saw decent strength in Wednesdays session, with The US Dollar Index (DXY) rising from an open of 104.67, pushing through the resistance at 105 to hit a high of 105.14 on the back of firmer US Treasury yields. Despite this rally DXY is heading into the end of the month looking to have its first monthly decline since December 2023. Ahead today we have ...
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Weak demand for US 7-year treasuries sent Wall Street indices lower on Wednesday, on concerns that funding the US deficit will drive up yields alongside ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates. And that manifested with a higher US yields curve and a stronger USD, which enjoyed at strongest daily performance in over a month. This week I have warned of a potential ...
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Extending the dismal pace of US economy growth (if not outright contraction) observed in last month's Beige Book, which was validated by the sharp drop in Q1 GDP growth which ...
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European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said it would “soon” be time to ease monetary policy in the region, but cautioned that the process would need to be done ...
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China's economy is set to grow 5% this year, after a "strong" first quarter, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, upgrading its earlier forecast of 4.6% expansion ...
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National economic activity continued to expand from early April to mid-May; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts. Most Districts reported slight or modest growth, while two noted no change in activity. Retail spending was flat to up slightly, reflecting lower discretionary spending and heightened price sensitivity among consumers. Auto sales were roughly flat, with a few Districts noting that manufacturers were offering incentives to spur sales. Travel and tourism strengthened across much of the country, boosted by increased leisure and business travel, but hospitality contacts were mixed in their outlooks for the summer season. Demand for nonfinancial services rose, and activity in transportation services was mixed, as port and rail activity increased whereas reports of trucking and freight demand varied. Nonprofits and community organizations cited continued solid demand for their services, and manufacturing activity was widely characterized as flat to up, though two Districts cited declines. Tight credit standards and high interest rates continued to constrain lending growth. Housing demand rose modestly, and single-family construction increased, though there were reports of rising rates impacting sales activity. Conditions in the commercial real estate sector softened amid supply concerns, tight credit conditions, and elevated borrowing costs. Energy activity was largely stable, whereas agricultural reports were mixed, as drought conditions eased in some Districts, but farm finances/incomes remained a concern. Overall outlooks grew somewhat more pessimistic amid reports of rising uncertainty and greater downside risks post: FED BEIGE BOOK: PRICES INCREASED AT A MODEST PACE OVER THE REPORTING PERIOD. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: OVERALL OUTLOOKS GREW SOMEWHAT MORE PESSIMISTIC AMID REPORTS OF RISING UNCERTAINTY AND GREATER DOWNSIDE RISKS. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: NATIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO EXPAND FROM EARLY APRIL TO MID-MAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS VARIED ACROSS INDUSTRIES AND DISTRICTS. post: FED'S BEIGE BOOK: EMPLOYMENT ROSE AT A SLIGHT PACE OVERALL. EIGHT DISTRICTS REPORTED NEGLIGIBLE TO MODEST JOB GAINS,AND THE REMAINING FOUR DISTRICTS REPORTED NO CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT.
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post: RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA HEAD ECONOMIST HUNTER: WE AGREE WITH THE TREASURY FORECAST ON INFLATION
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post: SWISS NATIONAL BANK'S JORDAN: REASONS TO BELIEVE THE NATURAL RATE OF INTEREST HAS INCREASED OR MIGHT RISEJordan: The natural rate of interest (r*) as a reference point for monetary policy - a practitioner's view Ladies and gentlemen I am delighted to be here today in Seoul to address such a distinguished audience. I would like to thank Governor Rhee for inviting me to give this keynote speech. The topic of this year’s Bank of Korea International Conference – ‘The Evolution of the Natural Interest Rate and Its Implications for the Global Economy’ – could not have come at a better time. Monetary tightening over the past two years has lifted policy rates and longerterm interest rates from their historical lows. There are reasons to believe that some of the structural drivers of real interest rates have also changed direction in recent years. A lively debate has emerged on whether real interest rates will return to their pre-pandemic levels, or whether they will remain higher because the natural rate of interest, r*, has increased.1 Over the past years, r* has become an important reference point for monetary policy. The difference between the real interest rate and r* gives a measure of a central bank’s monetary policy stance. Therefore, r* estimates help in evaluating different monetary policy options. However, the measurement of r* is subject to high uncertainty. Today I would like to focus mainly on how policymakers can nevertheless make use of r* estimates in practice. In the first part of my remarks, I will briefly review the developments in real interest rates over the past decades. I will then turn to the concept of r* itself. In the second part, I will discuss how policymakers can use r* in practice to assess the monetary policy stance, and in particular, how they can deal with the inherent uncertainty in r* estimates. Here I will draw especially on the Swiss National Bank’s experience.
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The USD saw decent strength in Wednesdays session, with The US Dollar Index (DXY) rising from an open of 104.67, pushing through the resistance at 105 to hit a high of 105.14 on the back of firmer US Treasury yields. Despite this rally DXY is heading into the end of the month looking to have its first monthly decline since December 2023. Ahead today we have ...
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Weak demand for US 7-year treasuries sent Wall Street indices lower on Wednesday, on concerns that funding the US deficit will drive up yields alongside ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates. And that manifested with a higher US yields curve and a stronger USD, which enjoyed at strongest daily performance in over a month. This week I have warned of a potential ...
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Although South Korea is one of the more developed financial markets, the operating hours for its foreign exchange (FX) market have been quite limited. Until now, the Korean won trading has only been active for 6.5 hours, but it will soon be significantly prolonged. This change will be groundbreaking, extending the official session to 17 hours. According to ...