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A Tale of Two Surveys: Employment Trends in the Establishment and Household Surveys
The establishment and household measures of employment have painted different pictures of the labor market's resilience in recent months. According to the payroll survey, U.S. employment continues to grow at a robust pace year-over-year. Meanwhile, annual employment growth as measured by the household survey has nearly stalled, with the 0.4% rise through March the smallest increase outside the pandemic since October 2013. In this report, we discuss key differences in the objectives and methodologies of the surveys, potential explanations for the current divergence in trends and what it means for expected strength in ... (full story)