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Top Mexico Peso Forecaster Sees World-Beating Rally Losing Steam
The world’s best currency rally is set to peter out as Mexico’s central bank begins to cut interest rates, according to the currency’s most-accurate forecaster. Mexico’s peso is up almost 10% in the past 12 months, by far the best performance among 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. It recently touched the highest since 2015, and has defied bearish calls from Bank of America to Morgan Stanley. Funds and asset managers have boosted their bullish bets to the highest level in at least a year, according to derivatives data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. All that has left the peso ... (full story)
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Traders and economists expect the NFP report to show that the US created 212K net new jobs, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m (4.3% y/y) and the U3 unemployment rate ...
post: Fed’s Barkin: Smart for US Central Bank to ‘Take Our Time’ on Interest Rate Cuts Fed’s Barkin:Early 2024 Data ‘Less Encouraging,' Raises Issue of Whether Outlook is Shifting Fed’s Barkin:Fed Officials Are All Looking at the Same Data, but It’s Easy to Draw Different Conclusions post: BARKIN: HE IS OPTIMISTIC KEEPING RATES 'SOMEWHAT RESTRICTIVE' CAN RETURN INFLATION TO TARGETBarkin: How You Might Look at Recent Data Thank you for that kind introduction and for having me here today. I thought I would speak about the economy and where it may be headed, and then look forward to your questions and input. I caution you these are my thoughts alone and not necessarily those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee or in the Federal Reserve System. Contrary to most forecasts, including my own, the economy finished 2023 strong. Twelve-month PCE inflation came down all the way to 2.6 percent. At the same time, despite higher interest rates, global conflicts and banking turmoil, the economy remained healthy, with GDP at 3.4 percent and unemployment near historic lows at 3.7 percent. If you had told me a year or two ago that we would end 2023 with a robust economy and inflation in the 2s, I would have been pretty happy. But early 2024 data has been a little less encouraging. The first two months of PCE inflation have come in higher, at a 4.3 percent annual rate. And consumer spending, which is nearly 70 percent of GDP, has come in softer, at 1.3 percent annualized growth over the first two months. There are reasons to underweight some of the recent data, including seasonal adjustments and winter weather, but it does raise the question of whether we are seeing a real shift in the economic outlook, or merely a bump along the way. When trying to interpret uncertain data, I find there is one surefire place to find perspective — and that’s a Peanuts comic strip. As greeting card buyers know, there really is a Peanuts message for every occasion. I remember one in which Charlie Brown, Lucy and Linus are looking at the clouds — the same clouds — and seeing complete
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $68.9 billion in February, the largest disparity since last April, as import values exceeded exports by more than analysts were expecting. The ...
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The Euro posts solid gains against the US Dollar, though it faces stirring resistance at the 100-day moving average (DMA), which caps the pair's advance toward 1.0900. ...
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- Posted: Apr 4, 2024 1:04pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,230