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Jefferson: Is This Time Different? Recent Monetary Policy Cycles in Retrospect
Thank you, Adam, and thank you to Peterson for the opportunity to speak to you today. Before I begin, let me remind you that the views I will express today are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues in the Federal Reserve System. I will take this opportunity to share with you my outlook on the U.S. economy and some upside and downside risks to which I am paying special attention. Also, I will review past monetary policy cycles and discuss what lessons we may learn from them. With that, let me turn to my outlook for the U.S. economy. Aggregate Economic Activity Growth in real gross domestic product in ... (full story)
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Fed’s Jefferson: Likely to Be Appropriate to Begin Cutting Policy Rate Later This Year
— DB News TradFi (@DBNewswire) February 22, 2024
Fed’s Jefferson: January CPI Data ‘Disappointing,' Shows Path Down Likely to Be Bumpy
Fed’s Jefferson Says as Labor Mkt Cools, He Expects Core Services Inflation Will Continue to Moderate
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FED'S JEFFERSON: THE FED NEEDS TO REMAIN VIGILANT AND NIMBLE, SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AN UNEXPECTED SHOCK OCCURS.
— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) February 22, 2024
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The Fed's vice chair said the January CPI report shows disinflation could be "bumpy" but overall tells a story of progress on inflation, highlighting how 3- and 6-month annualized rates of core inflation are still running below 12-month rates https://t.co/6WB5p4uQYm https://t.co/8DOe5y3qiD
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 22, 2024
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Jefferson devotes the bulk of his speech to looking at Fed easing cycles since 1989. Two takeaways:
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 22, 2024
-Current PCE inflation is not particularly elevated when compared to these cycles
-Cuts without growth scares are very rare (but he cites 1995 as an example)