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ECB's Nagel: It is too early to talk about rate cuts
Nagel is a hawk, so there's that to consider when interpreting his comments. The talk of waiting until after the summer though is an intriguing one as that will see the timeline for a rate cut pushed to September. If so, that's a major U-turn that the market has to do in terms of pricing. • Markets are sometimes overly optimistic • We are data dependent • Inflation is still too high • Maybe can wait until summer break before contemplating rate cuts
Added at 7:35am
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Nagel is Nagel obvs, so no shock he's talking about Summer data. But, Lane has mentioned it too. The risk for CB rep/legacy and for med term economics is Burns redux. They need to be really sure before cutting and I don't think they have enough data to be sure by March/April.
— stewart hampton (@stewhampton) January 15, 2024