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Powell Urges Fed Economists to Be Flexible on Forecast Methods
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank must be willing to think beyond the complex mathematical simulations it traditionally uses to forecast the economy. “Intellectual rigor has to be combined with flexibility and agility,” Powell said in opening remarks at a conference celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Fed board’s Division of Research and Statistics. “Even with state-of-the-art models and even in relatively calm times, the economy frequently surprises us,” Powell said. “But our economy is flexible and dynamic, and subject at times to unpredictable shocks, such as a global ... (full story)