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China: Stabilisation, but at lower levels
China’s GDP increased by 1.3% q/q and 4.9% y/y in the third quarter of 2023. Based on these numbers, it seems that China’s growth rates have stabilised since the poor development in the spring (GDP increased by only 0.5% q/q in Q2 2023), and growth continues to be in line with our 5% forecast for the whole year. However, it is good to keep in mind that many China analysts’ own estimates indicate that growth momentum is actually relatively weaker in China and the official numbers may overestimate it at the moment. Regarding the sectoral development, consumption and service sector continued to be the ones leading ... (full story)
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Before our discussion, I will take a few minutes to discuss recent economic data and the outlook for monetary policy. Recent Economic Data Incoming data over recent months show ongoing progress toward both of our dual mandate goals—maximum employment and stable prices. Inflation By the time the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates in March 2022, it was clear that restoring price stability would require both the unwinding of pandemic-related distortions to supply and demand, and also restrictive monetary policy to cool strong demand and give supply time to catch up. These forces are now working together to bring inflation down. After peaking at 7.1 percent in June 2022, 12-month headline PCE (personal consumption expenditure) inflation is estimated at 3.5 percent through September.1 Core PCE inflation, which omits the volatile food and energy components, provides a better indicator of where inflation is heading. Twelve-month core PCE inflation peaked at 5.6 percent in February 2022 and is estimated at 3.7 percent through September. Inflation readings turned lower over the summer, a very favorable development. The September inflation data continued the downward trend but were somewhat less encouraging. Shorter-term measures of core inflation over the most recent three and six months are now running below 3 percent. But these shorter-term measures are often volatile. In any case, inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal. We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters. While the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time, my colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflati post: <=USD>:*POWELL: FOMC `PROCEEDING CAREFULLY' GIVEN RISKS, HIKES SO FAR ?*POWELL:`ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE' OF STRONG ECONOMY MAY MERIT HIKING post: POWELL: GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS `HIGHLY ELEVATED,' POSE KEY RISKS post: POWELL: THERE MAY STILL BE MEANINGFUL TIGHTENING IN THE PIPELINE post: Fed's Powell: The Fed's role is to monitor highly elevated geopolitical tensions that pose important risks to global economic activity -The extent of additional policy firming and how long to keep policy restrictive will depend on data, outlook, balance of risks
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, ...
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- Posted: Oct 19, 2023 11:35am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,603
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