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An Update on the Health of the U.S. Consumer
The strength of consumer spending so far this year has surprised most private forecasters. In this post, we examine the factors behind this strength and the implications for consumption in the coming quarters. First, we revisit the measurement of “excess savings” that households have accumulated since 2020, finding that the estimates of remaining excess savings are very sensitive to assumptions about measurement, estimation period, and trend type, which renders them less useful. We thus broaden the discussion to other aspects of the household balance sheet. Using data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit ... (full story)
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Overall Economic Activity: Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. Tourism activity continued to improve, although some Districts reported slight slowing in consumer travel, and a few Districts noted an uptick in business travel. Banking contacts reported slight to modest declines in loan demand. Consumer credit quality was generally described as stable or healthy, with delinquency rates still historically low but slightly increasing. Real estate conditions were little changed and the inventory of homes for sale remained low. Manufacturing activity was mixed, although contacts across multiple Districts noted an improving outlook for the sector. The near-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable or having slightly weaker growth. Expectations of firms for which the holiday shopping season is an important driver of sales were mixed. post: FED BEIGE BOOK: MOST DISTRICTS INDICATED LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SINCE THE SEPTEMBER REPORT. post: Fed’s Beige Book: Economy Saw Little To No Change Since September - Consumer Spending Mixed, Especially In Auto, General Retail - Prices Continued To Increase At A Modest Pace Overall - Labour Market Tightness Continued To Ease Across The Nation
After last week's catastrophic 3/10/30 year auction and following today's latest blow out in yields that pushed the 10Y to 4.92%, it's safe to say that not many were looking with ...
Thank you, Tom. It is a pleasure to join you to take part in today's conversations.1 When we started Fed Listens back in 2019, the initiative was part of a broad, comprehensive review of the decisionmaking framework we use to pursue our monetary policy goals of maximum employment and price stability. We met with people across the country from a wide range of backgrounds and perspectives, and we learned a lot about how our monetary policy actions affect them, their businesses, and their communities. In light of the valuable insights we gained in those original listening sessions, we decided to expand the scope of Fed Listens to become an ongoing process of consultation with the public. I look forward to learning from the perspectives of today's participants, our panelists, as well as those of you in the audience. Through Fed Listens and other Board and System convenings, we are able to gain important insights about economic conditions by engaging directly with those experiencing the economy. Your views and experiences supplement the economic data that we monitor, providing important color and context. These discussions help us gain a deeper understanding of the ongoing burden from high inflation—from the considerations for families in making spending decisions to the f post: BOWMAN SAYS INFLATION HAS COME DOWN, BUT IT IS STILL TOO HIGH post: FED'S BOWMAN: THE STRENGTH IN GOODS SPENDING HAS BEEN SURPRISING.
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podcast Mortgage rates have surged over the last couple of years. But surprisingly to some, actual home prices in the US have been resilient. This has created a historic shock ...
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Philadelphia Fed. Thank you, Susie Kendis, for that introduction and to you and your colleagues at Deloitte for yesterday’s ...
GBP/USD gives back the advance from the start of the week even as the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly holds steady at 6.7% in September, and the exchange rate may ...
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- Posted: Oct 18, 2023 2:16pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,298