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China’s Economy at a Glance – August 2023: Soft start to Q3 signals a growing chance that China could miss its annual growth target
Weakness in China’s economy that was evident in Q2 has continued into July, with indicators of domestic demand subdued, the real estate sector remaining a headwind and demand for China’s goods in export markets continuing to soften. The highly likely modest cut to the PBoC’s policy rate later this month (having cut its MTF rate in mid-August) is unlikely to provide much of a boost, given already lacklustre loan demand. While our forecasts for China’s growth are unchanged this month – 5.2% for 2023, 4.5% for 2024 and 4.8% for 2025 – risk in the near-term is becoming increasingly weighted to the downside, ... (full story)