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The US economy 'more resilient than the Fed anticipated': Nick Timiraos
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Governing Council began by discussing recent global economic developments. Overall, the global economy was stronger than had been expected at the beginning of the year. While growth had slowed, consumer and business spending was resilient, particularly in the United States. Headline inflation had fallen in most advanced economies largely because of lower oil prices and easing goods price inflation. Governing Council reflected on some common themes that were evident across advanced economies: Measures of core inflation had proven to be stubborn due to robust consumer demand, tight labour markets and elevated inflation expectations. Supply bottlenecks were largely resolved and manufacturing was slowing as the demand for goods weakened, but demand for services remained strong. Despite substantial tightening of monetary policy over the past year, underlying inflation pressures had proven to be more persistent, leading major central banks to si post: BoC Governing Council Debated Not Raising Rates on July 12 and Waiting for More Evidence to Solidify Case for Another Hike- Minutes BoC Minutes: Consensus Among Members Was That the Cost of Delaying Action Was Larger Than the Benefit of Waiting post: BOC MINUTES: THE GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBERS AGREED THEY WERE PREPARED TO RAISE RATES FURTHER IF NEEDED, BUT DID NOT WANT TO DO MORE THAN THEY HAD TO. post: BOC MINUTES: THE GOVERNING COUNCIL ENCOURAGED BY THE DROP IN CPI INFLATION, BUT CORE INFLATION MEASURES SUGGEST THE RETURN TO 2% WILL TAKE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. post: BOC MINUTES: THE GOVERNING COUNCIL WAS CONCERNED THE PROGRESS TOWARD PRICE STABILITY COULD STALL, AND INFLATION COULD EVEN RISE AGAIN IF UPSIDE SURPRISES MATERIALIZE.
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Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to post: Fed Hikes by 25bps to 5.50% Est. 5.50% post: FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE pic.twitter.com/ufm8N0cjOr post: FOMC: Voted 11-0 For Fed Funds Rate Action FOMC: Economic Activity Has Been Expanding At a Moderate Pace FOMC: Job Gains Have Been Robust in Recent Months, Unemployment Rate Has Remained Low FOMC Will Continue to Assess Additional Information, Implications for Monetary Policy… post: ?*FED WILL CONTINUE SAME PACE OF REDUCING TREASURY, MBS HOLDINGS *FED REPEATS WILL TAKE CUMULATIVE TIGHTENING, LAGS INTO ACCOUNT *FED: INFLATION ELEVATED, HIGHLY ATTENTIVE TO INFLATION RISKS *FED REPEATS TIGHTER CREDIT LIKELY TO WEIGH ON ACTIVITY
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, ...
post: FED'S POWELL: THE FOMC IS TO TAKE A DATA-DEPENDENT APPROACH ON FUTURE HIKES. post: FED'S POWELL: THE FULL EFFECTS OF TIGHTENING ARE YET TO BE FELT. post: POWELL: HOUSING SECTOR PICKED UP BUT WELL BELOW 2022 LEVELS post: FED'S POWELL: GROWTH IN CONSUMER SPENDING HAS SLOWED FROM EARLIER IN THE YEAR. post: FED'S POWELL: THERE IS CONTINUING SIGNS OF LABOR SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMING INTO BETTER BALANCE.
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- Posted: Jul 26, 2023 1:35pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 4,059
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