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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast— June 2023
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March 2023. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A. The New York Fed model forecasts use data released through 2023:Q1, augmented for 2023:Q2 with the median ... (full story)
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Foreign exchange rate forecasts by BNP Paribas for the Pound Sterling's future performance against the US Dollar and Euro have recently been updated. BNP Paribas G10 FX ...
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said the central bank might need to tighten monetary policy further to reduce inflation and slow a resilient US economy ...
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decisionmaking by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society. Employment, inflation, and long-term interest rates fluctuate over time in response to economic and financial disturbances. Monetary policy plays an important role in stabilizing the economy in response to these disturbances. The Committee’s primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy is through changes in the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee judges that the level of the federal funds rate consistent with maximum employment and price stability over the longer run has declined relative to its historical average. Therefore, the federal funds rate is likely to be constrained by its effective lower bound more frequently than in the past. Owing in part to the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound, the Committee judges that downward risks to employment and inflation have increased. The Committee is prepared to use its full range of tools to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. The maximum level of employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal that is not directly measurable and changes over time owing largely to nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market. Consequently, it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee’s policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, recognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision. The Committee considers a wide range of indicators in making these assessments. The inflation rate over the longer r post at 11:01am: FED: OUTLOOK FOR FUNDS RATE SUBJECT TO ‘CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY’. post at 11:01am: FED: SLOWING INFLATION MAY DEPEND IN PART ON FURTHER EASING OF TIGHT LABOR MARKET. post at 11:02am: FED: SEVERAL MAJOR FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUED TIGHTENING, BUT ALSO EMPHASIZED NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS GIVEN LAGS AND UNCERTAINTY. post at 11:04am: *Fed: Will Make Decisions About Further Hikes Meeting by Meeting *Fed: Period of Below-Trend Growth Likely Needed to Curb Inf. *Fed: Inflation Has Moderated but Remains Above 2% Target *Fed: Tighter Credit Conditions to Weigh on Economic Activity
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US short-term inflation expectations fell in early June to a more than two-year low, helping drive consumer sentiment higher. Americans expect prices will climb at an annual rate ...
post at 1:11pm: *ECB’s Lagarde: Very Likely That ECB to Continue to Hike Rates in July *ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation Projected to Remain Too High for Too Long post at 1:12pm: ECB’s Lagarde: We Will Continue to Follow a Data-Dependent Approach After July
EUR/USD rally stalled in the aftermath of the European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike, trimming some of its previous day’s gains amidst mixed market sentiment. Following the Federal ...
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- Posted: Jun 16, 2023 12:20pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 930