Double-dip recession could be wiped from history as officials rethink growth figures from early 2012
Britain's double-dip recession might never have happened because Government number-crunchers now reckon the building industry did better than previously thought in the first quarter of 2012.
The second recession at the end of 2011 and first half of 2012 could be erased from the records when revisions to earlier data are released this morning alongside a third and final growth reading for early 2013.
Until now, Britain is thought to have fallen into recession for a nine-month period to the middle of 2012 following on from the deep recession of 2008 to 2009. A recession is technically classed as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Redoing the sums: Did hard-working builders save us from a double-dip recession in the winter of 2012?
But a stronger-than-reported performance from the UK's construction sector during the first three months of 2012 - the middle quarter of the assumed recession - has raised doubts about the UK's double dip.
Gross domestic product dropped by a marginal 0.1 per cent in the last quarter of 2011, followed by the same figure for the start of 2012, although in the second quarter there was a fall of 0.4 per cent as output was hit by an extra holiday for the Queen's Diamond Jubilee. [Check out the figures here on our economic data page.]
And the latest numbers from the Office for National Statistics published in May showed that the construction sector did not fare quite as badly in the first quarter of 2012 as originally believed .
Instead of output declining by 5.4 per cent, it fell by 5 per cent, according to the figures.
Recovery: Chancellor George Osborne says the British economy is 'healing'
This correction could be enough to revise overall GDP to 0 per cent in the first quarter of 2012 - interrupting the run of three consecutive declines and thus revising away the double dip.
IHS Global Insight chief UK and European economist Howard Archer said: 'In reality, it makes little difference whether the economy grew marginally, contracted marginally or was flat over a quarter or a couple of quarters.
'It is the overall picture that is important.'
The ONS figures today are also expected to confirm that the UK economy grew by 0.3 per cent in the first three months of this year, which brought Britain back from the brink of a further recession following a contraction of 0.3 per cent at the end of 2012.
An initial reading for the April-June 2013 period will not be produced until next month, but economists currently estimate that the economy expanded by around 0.5 per cent amid evidence of growing economic optimism.
Chancellor George Osborne last week said the British economy was 'healing' at his annual Mansion House speech in the City of London.
He said: 'We are moving from rescue to recovery. But while Britain has left intensive care, we still need to secure the recovery.'
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Q2 2011 | 0.1% |
Q3 2011 | 0.6% |
Q4 2011 | -0.1% |
2011 | 1% |
Q1 2012 | -0.1% |
Q2 2012 | -0.4% |
Q3 2012 | 0.9% |
Q4 2012 | -0.3% |
2012 | 0.3% |
Q1 2013 | 0.3% |
Most watched Money videos
- 'Now even better': Nissan Qashqai gets a facelift for 2024 version
- Introducing Britain's new sports car: The electric buggy Callum Skye
- Mini celebrates the release of brand new all-electric car Mini Aceman
- 2025 Aston Martin DBX707: More luxury but comes with a higher price
- Land Rover unveil newest all-electric Range Rover SUV
- Leapmotor T03 is set to become Britain's cheapest EV from 2025
- Mercedes has finally unveiled its new electric G-Class
- Blue Whale fund manager on the best of the Magnificent 7
- A look inside the new Ineos Quartermaster off-road pickup truck
- Kia's 372-mile compact electric SUV - and it could costs under £30k
- Incredibly rare MG Metro 6R4 rally car sells for a record £425,500
- Mini Cooper SE: The British icon gets an all-electric makeover
- Boost for GSK as US court rejects woman's claims...
- Royal Mail delays results as it heads towards £3.5bn...
- MARKET REPORT: Water shares suffer election call washout
- Nvidia stock hits record high as the US chip maker cashes...
- BUSINESS LIVE: Co-op Bank takeover agreed; Abrdn boss to...
- What will the election mean for your pension: Is the...
- Energy bills WILL fall in July: Here's how your costs...
- Abrdn boss Stephen Bird quits asset manager
- Coventry's £750m takeover of Co-op Bank confirmed
- Twelve ways YOU can make money from the Wall Street boom:...
- Hargreaves Lansdown founder considers 'all options' after...
- I want to take out a loan for my bakery but I have bad...
- Petrol retailers fleecing drivers with 'same old' rocket...
- Qinetiq sales soar 21% as boss warns global threats are...
- Top Tesla investor Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust...
- Don't sell Britain short: UK economy has done more than...
- AJ Bell shares slip as founder Andy Bell flogs £28.1m stake
- John Wood Group rejects third takeover bid from...