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Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
- Joined Feb 2022 | Status: Member | 1,460 Posts
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
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COT Net Bias Analysis for EURCHF - Week Ending June 11, 2024
CHF:
Currency Pair:
Potential Market Implications:
The non-commercial COT data suggests a bearish bias for EUR/CHF. The increase in short positions on the Euro and the simultaneous decrease in long positions on the Swiss Franc point toward a potential decline in the EUR/CHF exchange rate.
The shrinking open interest across both currencies indicates a reduction in speculative activity, which might lead to lower volatility in the short term. The overall decreasing trend in open interest could signal a weakening of market conviction in the current direction. However, with the significant decrease in short positions on CHF and the corresponding increase in long positions, it is crucial to monitor this development in upcoming weeks to understand if it signals a shift in sentiment towards CHF appreciation.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Consider short positions on EUR/CHF with a target of 0.9500. However, be mindful of potential volatility spikes and monitor open interest trends closely.
B: Commercial
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:
EUR:
* Commercial Net Position: Net Short (-13.0% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Decreased from previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Increased by 25,583 contracts (6.3% Change)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Decreased by 858 contracts (0.2% Change)
CHF:
* Commercial Net Position: Net Long (53.0% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Increased from previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Increasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Increased by 1,587 contracts (2.0% Change)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Increased by 4,539 contracts (21.6% Change)
Net Bias for EUR/CHF:
Potential Market Implications:
The commercial COT data reinforces the bearish bias for the EUR/CHF pair. The increasing net long position on CHF suggests that hedgers are anticipating a further rise in the value of the Swiss Franc. This, combined with the decreasing net short position on the Euro, further supports a potential decline in EUR/CHF.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Consider short positions on EUR/CHF with a target of 0.9450. Pay attention to the increasing market depth and potential for increased volatility.
C: Final Bias Assessment for EUR/CHF
This section integrates the net bias data from Sections A (Non-Commercial) and B (Commercial) to determine the overall bias for the EUR/CHF pair.
Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:
Final Net Bias for EUR/CHF:
Overall Bias: Bearish.
Rationale:
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on COT data and does not consider other market factors. Use this information at your own discretion and with thorough risk management.
DislikedThanks for that really appreciate it. Also sorry the chart I posted was USDCHF. But I like the outlook for EURCHF better! Thanks againIgnored
COT Net Bias Analysis for USD/CHF - Week Ending June 11, 2024
CHF:
Currency Pair:
Potential Market Implications:
The non-commercial COT data suggests a bearish bias for USD/CHF. While the USD saw a decrease in short positions, the significant reduction in long positions on the Swiss Franc indicates a shift towards a potential weakening of the US dollar against the Swiss Franc.
The shrinking open interest across both currencies indicates a reduction in speculative activity, which might lead to lower volatility in the short term. The overall decreasing trend in open interest could signal a weakening of market conviction in the current direction. However, with the significant decrease in short positions on CHF and the corresponding increase in long positions, it is crucial to monitor this development in upcoming weeks to understand if it signals a shift in sentiment towards CHF appreciation.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Consider short positions on USD/CHF with a target of 0.8800. However, be mindful of potential volatility spikes and monitor open interest trends closely.
B: Commercial
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:
USD:
* Commercial Net Position: Net Short (-17.4% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Increased from previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Increased by 266 contracts (4.4% Change)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Increased by 744 contracts (6.0% Change)
CHF:
* Commercial Net Position: Net Long (53.0% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Increased from previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Increasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Increased by 1,587 contracts (2.0% Change)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Increased by 4,539 contracts (21.6% Change)
Net Bias for USD/CHF:
Potential Market Implications:
The commercial COT data reinforces the bearish bias for the USD/CHF pair. The increasing net long position on CHF suggests that hedgers are anticipating a further rise in the value of the Swiss Franc. This, combined with the increasing net short position on the USD, further supports a potential decline in USD/CHF.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Consider short positions on USD/CHF with a target of 0.8750. Pay attention to the increasing market depth and potential for increased volatility.
C: Final Bias Assessment for USD/CHF
This section integrates the net bias data from Sections A (Non-Commercial) and B (Commercial) to determine the overall bias for the USD/CHF pair.
Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:
Conflicting Signals: The disagreement between the two groups comes from the slightly weaker net short bias for non-commercial traders as compared to the stronger commercial traders. This discrepancy can be attributed to a couple of factors:
Final Net Bias for USD/CHF:
Overall Bias: Bearish.
Rationale:
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on COT data and does not consider other market factors. Use this information at your own discretion and with thorough risk management.
Disliked{quote} = COT Net Bias Analysis for USD/CHF - Week Ending June 11, 2024 A: Non-Commercial Key Individual Currency Sentiment: USD: Net Position: Net Short Bias Strength (% of OI): 13.1% Change in Net Position: Decreased by 816 contracts (13.9% Change) Open Interest Trend: Decreasing Change in Long Contracts: Decreased by 345 contracts (1.3% Change) Change in Short Contracts: Decreased by 471 contracts (2.2% Change) CHF: Net Position: Net Long Bias Strength (% of OI): 44.9% Change in Net Position: Decreased by 37,854 contracts (-21.5% Change) Open...Ignored
COT Net Bias Analysis for AUD/JPY - Week Ending June 11, 2024
JAPANESE YEN (JPY):
AUD/JPY Currency Pair:
Potential Market Implications:
The Non-Commercial segment for AUD/JPY presents a nuanced picture. While both AUD and JPY are net short, indicating a bearish stance, the magnitude of change in their positions reveals a shift in sentiment. The sharper decrease in the AUD net short position compared to JPY suggests a potential bullish undertone for AUD/JPY. The decreasing open interest further supports a potential slowdown in the established downtrend, hinting at a possible period of consolidation or a minor corrective pullback.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
B: Commercial (Hedger) Positioning
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (AUD):
* Commercial Net Position: Net Long (28.7% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Increased from the previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Increasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Increased by 8,453 contracts (7.3% Change)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Decreased by 6,667 contracts (-9.5% Change)
JAPANESE YEN (JPY):
* Commercial Net Position: Net Long (45.6% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Increased from the previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Increasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Increased by 23,979 contracts (11.6% Change)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Increased by 8,247 contracts (11.0% Change)
Net Bias for AUD/JPY:
Potential Market Implications:
The significant increase in commercial long positions for both currencies, especially the JPY, suggests a positive long-term outlook on AUD/JPY from the perspective of hedgers. This could imply that commercial traders anticipate a potential bottoming out of the current downtrend or even a reversal to the upside in the longer term.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
C: Final Bias Assessment for AUD/JPY
Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:
Conflicting Signals:
Final Net Bias for AUD/JPY:
Overall Bias: Cautiously Bullish.
Rationale:
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Disliked{quote} Chart TF: Weekly {image} COT Net Bias Analysis for AUD/JPY - Week Ending June 11, 2024 A: Non-Commercial (Speculative) Positioning Key Individual Currency Sentiment: AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (AUD): Net Position: Net Short Bias Strength (% of OI): 30.5% Change in Net Position: Decreased by 13,482 contracts (-19.7% Change) Open Interest Trend: Decreasing Change in Long Contracts: Decreased by 6,121 contracts (-13.4% Change) Change in Short Contracts: Increased by 7,361 contracts (7.2% Change) JAPANESE YEN (JPY): Net Position: Net Short Bias Strength...Ignored
Disliked_____________Hi ,what's the view on XAUUSD from COT prospective? = TIA for ur Response ! Is this still VALID ? {image}Ignored