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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #24,341
  • Jun 15, 2017 1:57pm Jun 15, 2017 1:57pm
Ranging, coiled snake it is again.

I have a short opened since 141.420. Really looks to me like it's going to drop a couple of ten of pips at least. News from Japan later will make it alive again.
"Don't lose your cool, and you will fare well".
  • #24,342
  • Jun 15, 2017 2:01pm Jun 15, 2017 2:01pm
Quoting diana91
News from Japan later will make it alive again.
Unfortunately and for some weird reason JPY financial reports do not move the Yen anymore, or not that much anyway.

Unless there is a tsunami somewhere or a Bank of Japan intervention has been announced.
  • #24,343
  • Jun 15, 2017 2:02pm Jun 15, 2017 2:02pm
Evening all! Seems like the uptrend of the GBP is coming to a halt.. 140.5 level proves to be a nice resistance.

I can't help but to suspect stronger with every passing hour that the gap is not gonna filled, not this time! I think she will drop to atleast the 50% fib level from this rally up.

See attached screenshot for my view. It could turn to go up, i have placed a pending short order at price 141.30, SL at 141.56 and TP at 140.307.

When rally begins i plan to SELL SELL SELL more on the way down, depending on the strength the rally shows!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,344
  • Jun 15, 2017 2:11pm Jun 15, 2017 2:11pm
Quoting thejerre
I can't help but to suspect stronger with every passing hour that the gap is not gonna filled, not this time!
GBP/JPY is currently at 141.50, so what is the most probable scenario, from a strictly probabilistic point of view?

1: GBP/JPY will fill the gap located 80 pips higher.

2: GBP/JPY will NOT fill the gap and simply resume its downtrend until it touches the low of the week, located almost 300 pips under the current price

What do you think...?
  • #24,345
  • Edited 3:59pm Jun 15, 2017 2:19pm | Edited 3:59pm
Damn it, spreads have widened again.

So, if this strategy that I have right now works, I plan to watch it closely at 141 line, if it holds, and it starts going up again, I will be long.

Now, we'll just have to see how it plays out...


Well, off to sleep...

Edit: out just a little under breakeven.
"Don't lose your cool, and you will fare well".
  • #24,346
  • Jun 15, 2017 2:20pm Jun 15, 2017 2:20pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} GBP/JPY is currently at 141.50, so what is the most probable scenario, from a strictly probabilistic point of view? 1: GBP/JPY will fill the gap located 80 pips higher. 2: GBP/JPY will NOT fill the gap and simply resume its downtrend until it touches the low of the week, located almost 300 pips under the current price What do you think...?

I agree with the 2 probabilities, but the resistance at this level was pretty abrupt and is holding for a 6 to 7 hours now, i am well aware these are not the peak of the opening hours in the market..

Anyway, wish u a lot of green pips!! I am sure hoping to grow my micro account
  • #24,347
  • Jun 15, 2017 3:35pm Jun 15, 2017 3:35pm
Quoting thejerre
I agree with the 2 probabilities
From a mathematical point of view, Scenario 1 (GBP/JPY will fill the gap located 80 pips higher) is almost 4 times more likely to happen than scenario 2.

Quoting thejerre
I am sure hoping to grow my micro account
Good trading system + money management + discipline = Big bucks, so anything is possible my friend.
Keep reinvesting the profits and you will get there in no time.
  • #24,348
  • Jun 15, 2017 3:52pm Jun 15, 2017 3:52pm
it will be great if you can check my old post and express your view too...
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...71#post9984071
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #24,349
  • Jun 15, 2017 5:20pm Jun 15, 2017 5:20pm
Come on GBP/JPY, just 40 pips more and the gap will be filled, you can do it big boy, and then you can rest for the rest of the year.
Come on, get up there and show me the money!

Inserted Video
  • #24,350
  • Jun 15, 2017 5:24pm Jun 15, 2017 5:24pm
NO one is going long?
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #24,351
  • Jun 15, 2017 5:30pm Jun 15, 2017 5:30pm
Quoting RondaRousey
NO one is going long?
I am already long GBP/JPY (and USD/JPY) but I bet there are tons of traders just waiting for the gap to be filled to short the hell out of the GBP/JPY
  • #24,352
  • Jun 15, 2017 5:32pm Jun 15, 2017 5:32pm
Quoting RondaRousey
NO one is going long?
I'm in doubt at the moment, so I'm staying "flat". (actually, hedged)

I'm currently just watching the market and doing some analysis trying to figure out what's going on, once I have an answer I'll take one side.
  • #24,353
  • Jun 15, 2017 5:35pm Jun 15, 2017 5:35pm
Quoting raphaelfx
{quote} I'm in doubt at the moment, so I'm staying "flat". (actually, hedged) I'm currently just watching the market and doing some analysis trying to figure out what's going on, once I have an answer I'll take one side.
and what is your analysis? Lay your bets before BoJ announcement
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #24,354
  • Jun 15, 2017 6:58pm Jun 15, 2017 6:58pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
Come on GBP/JPY, just 40 pips more and the gap will be filled, you can do it big boy, and then you can rest for the rest of the year. Come on, get up there and show me the money! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaiSHcHM0PA
Almost there big boy, almost there, don't be shy now, let's wrap this thing
  • #24,355
  • Edited 7:57pm Jun 15, 2017 7:27pm | Edited 7:57pm
trade that I put before go sleep, not bad ah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #24,356
  • Jun 15, 2017 8:11pm Jun 15, 2017 8:11pm
Quoting edmun1388
trade that I put before go sleep, not bad ah {image} {image} {image}
Not sure if I quite understand your image.
You bought where and what is the stop?
  • #24,357
  • Jun 15, 2017 8:25pm Jun 15, 2017 8:25pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Not sure if I quite understand your image. You bought where and what is the stop?
2017.6.15 12:36:31 buy gbpjpy 141.271
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #24,358
  • Jun 15, 2017 8:31pm Jun 15, 2017 8:31pm
Quoting edmun1388
{quote} 2017.6.15 12:36:31 buy gbpjpy 141.271
You are buying GBP/JPY at 141.27 and your stop (according to your image) is 141.28, I don't get it (unless it's a buy with also a limit order attached to it).
In other words you want to avoid any big slippage.
  • #24,359
  • Jun 15, 2017 8:34pm Jun 15, 2017 8:34pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} You are buying GBP/JPY at 141.27 and your stop (according to your image) is 141.28, I don't get it.
initial stop is 141.000 , after wake up >+70 , I move stop loss , thats it.
* Trade fail = No exit strategy,not the entry
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #24,360
  • Jun 15, 2017 8:40pm Jun 15, 2017 8:40pm
Quoting edmun1388
{quote} initial stop is 141.000 , after wake up >+70 , I move stop loss , thats it. * Trade fail = No exit strategy,not the entry
Oh I see, ok.
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