High Probability Insight: Day-Trade Daily Momentum on M1/M5TF

Quick Update on the Risk Events this week ( Video by Jarratt Davis )

WHAT TO EXPECT THROUGHOUT THE TRADING WEEK:


US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI:

Most of the US economy is in the services (non-manufacturing) sector. The publication usually serves
as a hint towards the Non-Farm Payrolls. This time, the sting is gone, but the report still has merit on
its own.
Back in April, the score beat expectations with 57.5 points. A score of 57.3 is predicted now.

Australian rate decision:

The Reserve Bank of Australia last changed interest rates in August but has adopted a neutral stance
since then. The Cash Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.50% for another month and the
Aussie will move on the tone of the statement. On one hand, the Australian economy is doing fine,
with solid jobs growth and consumption. However, worries about China weigh on the outlook.
In the past, the RBA took advantage of downfalls in the exchange rate to push the currency even lower.
Will they hit the A$ when it’s down once again?

US JOLTS Job Openings:

If the Federal Reserve needs yet another jobs report in order to make its decision, the number of job
openings serves as a hint. Despite being a laggard (the data is for April against May for the NFP),
the publication still moves the needle as the Fed eyes it.
In March, job opening stood at 5.74 million annualized. A small slide to 5.65 million is on the cards.

Australian GDP:

Australia publishes its GDP report only once per quarter, without any revisions. The economy enjoyed
a strong finish to 2016, growing by 1.1% q/q. Q1 will already be different. Treasury Secretary Morrisson
hinted that we see some “fluctuations”. A growth rate of 0.3% is projected.

Crude Oil Inventories:

The weekly measure of oil inventories has an immediate impact on oil prices but also reflects on the global
economy. Lower supply and marginally higher demand pushed inventories lower, helping oil prices stabilize.

UK Elections: (June 8th)

Brits are going to the polls less than a year after the EU Referendum after PM Theresa May called a snap
election. At first, it seemed that her Conservative Party is set for a landslide victory. A wide majority in
parliament would help her move to a soft Brexit, as she wouldnt have to worry about the hardline Brexiteers.

Since the announcement, her party is ceding ground to the opposition Labour Party. A small majority for May
would be slightly disappointing while a hung parliament (as suggested in this poll) could hit the pound quite
hard. Polls have a big impact on the pound. They vary quite a bit: those showing a big victory for the Mays
Tories rely on a high turnout for older people, as seen in previous campaigns. Those showing a tighter race
rely on an upswing in youngsters coming out to vote. During the day, we will get turnout numbers.

A low turnout will help the pound and a higher one will keep it under pressure.


ECB Rate Decision: (June 8th)

Draghis press conference at 7:30amCST. Will the ECB stop seeing risks as tilted to the downside?
Will they hint at the beginning of the end of QE?

After reducing the amount of monthly buys of bonds from 80 to 60 billion euros, the ECB is still on course
to continue with the money-printing scheme through 2017. The big question is whats next. Given the recent
improvement in the economy and expectations for higher inflation, the ECB might provide an upgraded outlook,
setting the scene for an announcement about tapering QE in September.

Note that this is an important ECB meeting, where they also release new forecasts for growth and inflation.
In many past events, Draghi dragged down the euro. Will it be different this time?

According to some reports, the ECB is set to ignore the most recent drop in inflation and upgrade its assessment.


Canadian jobs report: (June 9th)

This time, Canadas job report gets the full stage as the NFP is behind us. In April, the Canadian Economy gained
only 3.2K jobs and the unemployment rate stood at 6.5%.

A gain of 11.5K jobs is on the cards and the unemployment rate is forecast to advance to 6.6%.

Quick Risk Events Update ( Video by Jarratt Davis )

Current Market Condition/Sentiment: ( CsDash Update )

What to Expect During the Asian Session:

AUDUSD, H4TF - Potential Trend Reversal Setup


Trade Setup: Bearish Cypher Pattern

Current Market Trend: Bullish

Current Market Sentiment: Bullish





Note: At this point right now, the Sentiment will dictate where the market wants to go. It's best to
wait for the Sentiment to match with the Setup before pulling the Trigger.

Current Market Condition/Sentiment: ( CsDash Update )

RBA Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision


At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.

The broad-based pick-up in the global economy is continuing. Labour markets have tightened further in
many countries and forecasts for global growth have been revised up since last year. Above-trend growth
is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain.

In China, growth is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction,
with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Commodity prices are generally
higher than they were a year ago, providing a boost to Australia's national income.

The prices of iron ore and coal, however, have declined over recent months as expected, unwinding some
of the earlier increases.

Headline inflation rates in most countries have moved higher over the past year, partly reflecting the higher
commodity prices. Core inflation remains low, as do long-term bond yields. Further increases in US interest
rates are expected over the year ahead and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing
in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively.

Domestically, the transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom is
almost complete. Business conditions have improved and capacity utilisation has increased. Business
investment has picked up in those parts of the country not directly affected by the decline in mining investment.

Year-ended GDP growth is expected to have slowed in the March quarter, reflecting the quarter-to-quarter variation
in the growth figures. Looking forward, economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple
of years to a little above 3 per cent.

Indicators of the labour market remain mixed. Employment growth has been stronger over recent months, although
growth in total hours worked remains weak. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in
employment over the period ahead. Wage growth remains low and this is likely to continue for a while yet.

Inflation is expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthens. Slow growth in real wages is restraining
growth in household consumption.

The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates. The depreciation of the exchange rate
since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating
exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.

Conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country. Prices have been rising briskly in some
markets, although there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease. In other markets, prices are
declining.

In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over
the next couple of years. Rent increases are the slowest for two decades. Growth in housing debt has outpaced
the slow growth in household incomes. The recent supervisory measures should help address the risks associated
with high and rising levels of indebtedness.

Lenders have also announced increases in mortgage rates, particularly those paid by investors and on interest-only
loans.

Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged
at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target
over time.

Not Feeling the News on AUD, so I decided to risk a small position to keep my eyes on it.



More News on AUD throughout the week:


Tuesday, June 6th

8:30pm............AUD.........GDP***

=---------------------------======================

Wednesday, June 7th

8:30pm...........AUD..........Trade Balance***
Tentative.........CNY...........Trade Balance***

Current Market Condition/Sentiment: ( CsDash Update )

I got stopped out

The Overall Market Trend

Slowly getting out of a DD.

EUR/USD, H4TF - My Quick Insight

GBP/USD, H4TF - No Clear Entries, but.....

USD/JPY, H4TF - Fed might Hike rate this week, but not sure yet about the reaction.

AUD/USD, H4TF - 2 Potential Trade Setups based on the Sentiment throughout the week.

NZD/USD, Daily - This pair has been on a massive run, I expect a pause...

EUR/JPY, H4TF



GBP/JPY, H4TF



CAD/JPY, H4TF



USD/CHF, H4TF