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Let's Trade Options

  • #14,701
  • Edited 11:01am Feb 10, 2017 10:50am | Edited 11:01am
filled USO Jul/Oct $15 calendar calls for a dime (Rex Tillerson).....also Feb 15 SPY $230.5/230 bull puts for a dime
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,702
  • Feb 10, 2017 9:26pm Feb 10, 2017 9:26pm
Quoting The Fool
filled USO Jul/Oct $15 calendar calls for a dime (Rex Tillerson).....also Feb 15 SPY $230.5/230 bull puts for a dime

I like the R:R on that. I'm still gonna short every rally. Macro view is so mixed it almost always ends in the commodity deflationary situation I was talking about in like 2013. I'm seein CL back at 36 before we finally turn. USO to 8 before it bases. (Note: Ill delete this post if I'm wrong so I don't look like an asshole)

Took a bunch of small losses this week that I closed out today. Big winner was my GRUB strangle and my TSO Feb 80/87.5 Bull call spread that netted a solid 8:1 on the R:R side.... closed most of it but I wanna hold it to expiration if it will stay over 87.50 by next week to collect max profit.

My bear trade on Mexico stopped me out.

ORCL looks like it may blow off the 41 handle and retrace to 39.50. Ill get if it capitulates there early next week in the AM


Other than that I want to go kitesurfing like Barry this weekend.
  • #14,703
  • Feb 10, 2017 10:42pm Feb 10, 2017 10:42pm
Quoting Wulfgar
I like the R:R on that. I'm still gonna short every rally. .
sure, risk $10 to make $100 hell maybe $400....not putting lots of units out there on it tho. When I get busy and I am getting very busy now, well I will put on long dated stuff like that just to stay in the game. Otherwise, I have been raising lots of cash. Still trying to look above the tweet spray and see those big binary opps out there. Also trying to win the lotto.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,704
  • Feb 10, 2017 10:54pm Feb 10, 2017 10:54pm
Another long-date boondoggle I like to do is the otm wide flys on the index names - I also like the monthly/quarterly calendars. The flys are forgiving and can have great r:r if you get lucky. The SPY put fly shown has a profit zone like $35 wide a few weeks before expiry, starts to get harder later than that....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,705
  • Feb 10, 2017 11:04pm Feb 10, 2017 11:04pm
Instead of buying 10x that fly centered at $205, I will get in a range of them centered on different sticky spots....trading fflys and calendars all about getting in the zone in the final couple weeks - if you are lucky, take it down to the final day and stick one of your middle short strikes.....money
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,706
  • Feb 10, 2017 11:16pm Feb 10, 2017 11:16pm
SPX same thing, sometimes the bargains are better there - I prefer it to save on comms. It also has the monthly/qtrly calendar setup. I love the fly r:r, often >25:1 at max and >10:1 across a good range. Just need to get lucky and find a market that actually moves....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,707
  • Edited 1:10am Feb 12, 2017 1:00am | Edited 1:10am
GLD has the quarterlies,too....can get in some cheap calendars and diagonals when the monthly/quarterly chains come up....the combo below b/e's around GLD $125, that would be gold at $1300 approx....maybe a long shot but risks 10c to make $1.30 is ok...Jun and Sep similar combos look m/l the same but are about 5c more debit...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,708
  • Feb 13, 2017 8:14am Feb 13, 2017 8:14am
Looks like the Trump trade has regained its head of steam.

Pity, it killed my AAPL bear spread( second one). Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, I'm a dumbass.

No new positions loaded yet. Looking at a few huge R:R trades on msft short from around where we are now, ORCL if it doesn't start basing at current price, PFE needs to climb a little to get the axe( that thing could potentially run back down to the mid 20's if the macros line up against pharmaceuticals), and PYPL at 41-50-42 looks good for another potential short back down to 36ish.

Other than that the only things I have going really are all those breakout trades on the financials(GS primarily) and my flyers on UAA and FDX and my TEVA long trade got a little kick in the ass from good earnings this AM.

Anyhow... ya... that's all I got

OH! and I want to buy the ten year note if it gets down to 124'11-124'07 I think that could be YUUUGE riding it back up to 126 or 127
  • #14,709
  • Feb 13, 2017 12:13pm Feb 13, 2017 12:13pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Looks like the Trump trade has regained its head of steam.
Yep, bull train unstoppable I guess until some more f-up's by Trump and or until the EMU falls apart. Just a few weeks until the Dutch elections....I have bullish GS trades coming due this week and next but I need him to be up in the $250's to finish well, maybe a big tax cut DJT announcement any day could push it up there....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,710
  • Feb 13, 2017 1:08pm Feb 13, 2017 1:08pm
Quoting Wulfgar
OH! and I want to buy the ten year note if it gets down to 124'11-124'07 I think that could be YUUUGE riding it back up to 126 or 127
TLT my proxy, has been ranging pretty flat since the election. Gotta be super low iv, maybe a good spot for a cheap strangle. I hear whozits on the internet talking about everybody dumping US Treasury's - if that's true they ain't been dumping enough to make the long bonds move....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,711
  • Edited 10:10pm Feb 13, 2017 9:48pm | Edited 10:10pm
TLT....idk, if the Fed thinks they are gonna get 3 hikes done in 2017, they might better get em done quick, may not have a better chance if lotsa shtf in Q2 and beyond......maybe we will see better entries for bullish UST trades?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2017-02-13_2126TLT.png Size: 70 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,712
  • Feb 14, 2017 7:49am Feb 14, 2017 7:49am
Quoting The Fool
TLT....idk, if the Fed thinks they are gonna get 3 hikes done in 2017, they might better get em done quick, may not have a better chance if lotsa shtf in Q2 and beyond......maybe we will see better entries for bullish UST trades? {image}

That's what I'm waiting for

Yellens little tirade today jawboning interest rates bew the 10 year note through my little level... next one is down a point at 123'10- 122'30... that may be a nice trade if we capitulate into the zone...looks like a lot of unfilled orders there could park a short squeeze
  • #14,713
  • Feb 14, 2017 7:09pm Feb 14, 2017 7:09pm
Quoting The Fool
I have 2/17 UVXY $20 long puts, bot for 12c. Worth ~30c now. If we get a big bull balls week next week, they could get atm with a week of time, I'm guessing they might go to 60c. A really nice crash itm would put them at $1+. Could be cat food for a year. Tricky, though, because while the u/l is crashing so is the iv and the options valuation also. I saw this morning they sold for 48c and they dropped to 30c mostly on the iv bleed. I wish I hadda took 48c, I blame Wulfgar....
IN 12c out for $1.20 today with the last and they went to $1.50+, huge 11+% drop in UVXY today, better trade I have had lately....I also have Feb24 $17 long puts, in those for a nickel and they are at about 30c today, if I see 50c I will have to take some off....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,714
  • Feb 14, 2017 11:54pm Feb 14, 2017 11:54pm
"Bored with forums"

understatement of the new year...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #14,715
  • Feb 15, 2017 8:15am Feb 15, 2017 8:15am
Quoting PayTheLimit
"Bored with forums" understatement of the new year...

I was bored until I woke up and saw that AIG shit the bed. I had a bullish spread on that thing and got destroyed #exciting
  • #14,716
  • Feb 15, 2017 8:52am Feb 15, 2017 8:52am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} If it dips down to 801 Id take a whack at it... short stops and upside may run to 1000 I'm closing my spy iron condor, gap risk could screw me on Monday... took a slap on it but nothin too rough gonna review the weekly/monthly charts this week and see if anything is hidden in plain sight. Have a good weekend guys

this AMZN call was the truth... I'm not sure how/why I did literally nothing about it

No matter how long I do this stuff I still seem to manage a way to hose myself from time to time
  • #14,717
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:01am Feb 15, 2017 10:01am
Interminable bull market so dull....almost hypnotic. Either buy the limit, throw change at a fade, or sit it out. I have been loading up on consulting work, it pays....

...have GS calls diagonal - Feb17/Feb24 $257.50/$260.00 - in for 10c trying to get out for 50c today, if GS will nudge up into the close I will make it. I put a $260/$262.5 Feb17 Kahuna vertical on there for 6c, will take that off for a wash or a little loss also.....c'mon squiddy
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,718
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:13am Feb 15, 2017 10:13am
Quoting The Fool
Interminable bull market so dull....almost hypnotic. Either buy the limit, throw change at a fade, or sit it out. I have been loading up on consulting work, it pays.... ...have GS calls diagonal - Feb17/Feb24 $257.50/$260.00 - in for 10c trying to get out for 50c today, if GS will nudge up into the close I will make it. I put a $260/$262.5 Feb17 Kahuna vertical on there for 6c, will take that off for a wash or a little loss also.....c'mon squiddy

Pretty phenomenal actually...Big tax plan crafted by the squid comin up mid Feb.. Trump on Trumps tax plan : "HR Block wont be happy.

My GS ratio spread that I got into for $2 is worth $18 now

Such is trading I guess... a few big winners need to outwork the hordes of "controlled" losses(except AIG today which I took a loss 5x worse than I had expected)
  • #14,719
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:40am Feb 15, 2017 10:40am
Quoting Wulfgar
Pretty phenomenal actually...Big tax plan crafted by the squid comin up mid Feb.. Trump on Trumps tax plan : "HR Block wont be happy. My GS ratio spread that I got into for $2 is worth $18 now Such is trading I guess... a few big winners need to outwork the hordes of "controlled" losses(except AIG today which I took a loss 5x worse than I had expected)
9bag very nice on GS - I score 5-10bag wins fairly often but it's mostly on shit I paid <20c for, really makes a difference if you get that on a $2 risk. You get what you pay for I heard...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,720
  • Feb 15, 2017 10:50am Feb 15, 2017 10:50am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} 9bag very nice on GS - I score 5-10bag wins fairly often but it's mostly on shit I paid <20c for, really makes a difference if you get that on a $2 risk. You get what you pay for I heard...

Most of these are just turds that float. I always look for at least a 5-1 or higher reward to risk. We live in strange times now where things like this GS spread or the same shit on the spy/IWM/take your pick... are possible without really ever feeling any pain.
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