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  • #14,621
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:36am Feb 3, 2017 10:36am
Long VXX march puts.
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  • #14,622
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:45am Feb 3, 2017 10:45am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Same here... got a shit fill on my position this AM... wanted a $2 credit, ended up paying $2 instead so I had to position size accordingly.... when GS is at $300 Ill be laughin though

The Squid wins again... that spread is already worth over $5 ...I'm just sooo sick of winning all the time
  • #14,623
  • Feb 3, 2017 10:48am Feb 3, 2017 10:48am
Quoting The Fool
I have 2/17 UVXY $20 long puts, bot for 12c. Worth ~30c now. If we get a big bull balls week next week, they could get atm with a week of time, I'm guessing they might go to 60c. A really nice crash itm would put them at $1+. Could be cat food for a year. Tricky, though, because while the u/l is crashing so is the iv and the options valuation also. I saw this morning they sold for 48c and they dropped to 30c mostly on the iv bleed. I wish I hadda took 48c, I blame Wulfgar....

Dude its always my fault... You vix(and other vol derivative) traders are too smart for me.
  • #14,624
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:06am Feb 3, 2017 11:06am
Quoting Wulfgar
The Squid wins again... that spread is already worth over $5 ...I'm just sooo sick of winning all the time
Wulfgar, Charlie Sheen, Don Trump...we need a bigger Universe for all the ballz and winning.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,625
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:15am Feb 3, 2017 11:15am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Wulfgar, Charlie Sheen, Don Trump...we need a bigger Universe for all the ballz and winning.

Word

The Donald shlonged Dodd-Frank today. Maybe he will pull the stupid stock PDT rules and the FX leverage restrictions.
  • #14,626
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:32am Feb 3, 2017 11:32am
Quoting pip-boss
Long VXX march puts.
boss it looks like you are bullish VXX there, with your 2:1 short/long ratio you are looking for VXX to finish north of $18.50?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,627
  • Feb 3, 2017 11:35am Feb 3, 2017 11:35am
Quoting Wulfgar
Maybe he will pull the stupid stock PDT rules and the FX leverage restrictions.
won't bother me none.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,628
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:12pm Feb 3, 2017 12:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}boss it looks like you are bullish VXX there, with your 2:1 short/long ratio you are looking for VXX to finish north of $18.50?
Long 3 put contracts. Just part of the overall position.
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  • #14,629
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:19pm Feb 3, 2017 12:19pm
who will fade the AMZN drop? I will look at it Monday...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,630
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:27pm Feb 3, 2017 12:27pm
Quoting The Fool
who will fade the AMZN drop? I will look at it Monday...
threw out Feb17 $817.5/820/822.5 calls for a nickel, sometimes these cheap flys will fill and pay >10x.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,631
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:36pm Feb 3, 2017 12:36pm
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/...5?locale=en-US

I don't know enough about this to throw any money at SPX on a Friday close, not gonna experiment with real cash, but maybe somebody not wants to hold over the weekend, always just a Sunday tweet away from WWIII now.

Anyway, I had a good week. Nice weekend, all.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,632
  • Feb 3, 2017 12:48pm Feb 3, 2017 12:48pm
Quoting The Fool
who will fade the AMZN drop? I will look at it Monday...
If it dips down to 801 Id take a whack at it... short stops and upside may run to 1000


I'm closing my spy iron condor, gap risk could screw me on Monday... took a slap on it but nothin too rough

gonna review the weekly/monthly charts this week and see if anything is hidden in plain sight.

Have a good weekend guys
  • #14,633
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:35pm Feb 3, 2017 3:35pm
You guys had any luck buying options a week or so before earnings looking to profit on the increasing IV?

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/27/simpl...-earnings.html
  • #14,634
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:40pm Feb 3, 2017 3:40pm
Quoting pip-boss
You guys had any luck buying options a week or so before earnings looking to profit on the increasing IV? http://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/27/simpl...-earnings.html
yes, I do calendars on some things that way just to catch the iv ramp, but you might have to go more like 6 weeks than 2. I have had double calendars pay off handsomely doing that but in these doldrum stock runs I have also had many of those setups lose money. If you up your dte, you may catch a better iv ramp but you also lengthen your theta battle. Anyway, it has been enough of a mixed bag for me that I no longer consider it anything near a mainstay.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,635
  • Feb 3, 2017 3:42pm Feb 3, 2017 3:42pm
Quoting The Fool
who will fade the AMZN drop? I will look at it Monday...
UPS another drop maybe to fade, I looked and it didn't grab me....I go thru the FinViz screener to see what all has seen big moves in earnings season...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,636
  • Feb 3, 2017 6:07pm Feb 3, 2017 6:07pm
Quoting The Fool
Interesting, Snoopy, thanks - I will have to look at that when I have tos, later.....
The diag call spread and otm bull call combo that you propounded does not carry assignment risks.
The unbalanced put b'fly that I was contemplating is a combo of a DITM bull put and a regular b'fly, and it does have assignment risks.
Both require 250 margin hold per contract, both carry minimal risk if GS decides to stay put or head towards the centre of the earth, and both will benefit if GS shoots up in the near term. Did I miss anything?
  • #14,637
  • Feb 3, 2017 6:17pm Feb 3, 2017 6:17pm
any short option that is in the money can be assigned at any time. The closer it is to expiry, the more likely it will be assigned. The deeper in the money, the more likely assignment, also.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,638
  • Feb 3, 2017 6:27pm Feb 3, 2017 6:27pm
Most of the assignments I have been in have been on things that went pretty far itm in relatively illiquid names. The worst thing that can happen to your calendar or diagonal is a strong, early move towards or beyond your short strike. Often I will put those strikes at big round numbers or at areas of strong S/R, because I want them to be held there over time. In a minute after I finish this old fashioned I might make a vid of the time progression thru the diag and bull vert in that GS trade. I have high hopes for it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,639
  • Feb 3, 2017 6:34pm Feb 3, 2017 6:34pm
Below the P/L runs from today to expiry for the diag, the vert, then the combo. A better model would involve decreasing iv and other Greek effects, but I don't need pinpoint accuracy....

https://www.screencast.com/t/nXRvxfZ3UW
https://www.screencast.com/t/VF0BcskFt68X
https://www.screencast.com/t/Xoe00aDibDjx
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #14,640
  • Feb 3, 2017 6:38pm Feb 3, 2017 6:38pm
Hey TF, is that vid NSFW?
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