Trading Made Simple

Tough today. You see the market noise in H1 and H4 ...
H1 has 2 trade entries possibilities and H4 has none.
it was a matter of where to place your initial Stop Loss when you enter on H1 with a view to the D1.

look at D1, its nice and we need to patience and wait for hours since the new day opened this week.

Big E knew the statistics - 95% of traders are losers.
So how did he stay out of the 95%? I did not see any post where he shared his secret how he stayed out of the 95% losers pool. Or do we just believe he was in the 5% winners pool?

Do you believe me that some traders in the 5% winners pool also do not have a WINNING EDGE of their own?

Back to my question: How do you know if you have the WINNING EDGE in this trading business?

Thank you Cristy for this excellent post. It so real as I read similar experience from traders who made it big in recent years.
Quite a few takeaways which I know are of value for my learning journey this year. One day I will pick up more knowledge and experience which will then give me courage to drop the TDI too. I know the time to do that is very close.
Thank you and all the best in your trading business.

Making sense of BigE's entry strategy

"We Enter a trade when green crosses red on the TDI at the beginning of that candle... If

"At the beginning of that candle": I have understood only now the meaning of this indication, grasping fulling the difference between an HA bar and a candlestick. With candlestich, every bar is separate from the other. With HA bar this is not the cause. When a new HA bar opens, it shapes itself considering the values of the previous bar and the early new values of the new bar, so that it can open already with a big body, something impossible with candlestick. This phenomena helps to makes sense of BigE'indication. When a new HA bar opens, it already tells a lot about the actual trend and its price can be already hugely far away from the close of the previos HA bar. That's the time to enter, even if, and this is my consideration, it can be even too late, the price can already have gone too far.

I wonder if traders who use TMS never have a look to actual candlesticks. The difference between HA and candlestick is huge: a big body on one can correspond to a tiny body on the other and viceversa. Very often what appears to be a positive trade, considering open and close points on HA, in reality it results in a negative trade, because the true prices were far away fron open/clise HA points. The point is: how to keep truck of the true prices which are not indicated by HA?

Another candidate ( Bounce trade ) long upper wick at D1.
But there is strong resistance near by and it's end of New York Session & stop loss for swing high is too big. I hope you guys don't mind extra Guppy moving average. Otherwise I will remove this. Any comment ?



Took +45 pips from Eur/nzd. Hope you guys got some pips from this trade as well.

Good afternoon Emman,

Just so you know, my reference to banning someone from the thread was not meant for you, only another mudslinger who didn't get the subtlety. Question for you: Big E would exit 4H trades at 6am pst. Then the pair goes sideways for awhile following NY session. Next looksee would be at 10pm. Using the GU as an example, it now has 9 bullish apb candles. If someone had stayed in the trade after that, it would have gone well for them and could have leveraged into a fine D bullish trade. Your thoughts? I'm currently waiting for a bit of a pullback on the 4H, then entry long. D charts appears to be entering a congested area though between 1.2250 and 1.2750. I'm a little leery of the USD generally right now based on the current political climate though. Thanks for your feedback.

You never know .
Patience is the key for every stable system ..
AAA set-ups make more gain than losses..
No secret at all .
Guido

Hi Tekkies!

Thank you for your time!

Indeed I was wrong reading the TDI, I thought green and red was on the other side! So much to practise needed, but step by step.

I am checking 1D and 4h timeframes, however I see there are possible entries 1H. By no means I want to modify Big E system, just asking if 1H could be an option.

On the other hand, I am relaying in TDI only, I need to study candlestick pattern too, in order to read PA from the chart.

The problem I find is with 3700+ pages I do not manage to find everything important and sometimes I am a bit loss...

Also the language seems to be a barrier for understanding some technical concepts.

Anyhow, thank all of you for your support.

I totally agree.


Good Morning/Afternoon/Evening Folks.

I see the same BS on this thread over and over again.

Newbies taking Big E's words for granted like if he was some kind of 'god'.

Big E did not have the absolute knowledge, no one has it, he was only a very kind person whom most of us in this thread
admire for his commitment to help others by sharing his simple method.

But there is much more to learn than what he has written here.

I don't take this quote literally, when I read this, I do not think the TDI was the heart of his profitability, for me eelfranz's success was to due to the way he used the TDI, combining it with his experience and knowledge of basic FX principals like PA, not the indicator alone.

TDI is nothing but a RSI with 2 MAs and these at the same time are based on the price itself. So following the analogy, we would say that if the TDI is the Heart then Price Action is the Brain.

Besides what we're discussing here 'TMS' is nothing but a technical method which is less than 10% of a complete system, that is why the TDI will not give you an edge over the market, MM is the other 30% and Mindset/Psychology 60%.

Though he deleted the post knowing it could be a bad advice for newbies, Big E wrote his MM was very aggressive risking 15-30% per trade.

He coud do this because his mindset allowed him to take such risk since he did not need the money, he had worked very hard during his life and his retirement money would put the bread on his table everyday, for him trading was just a hobby and he was very good at it, staying out the 95% group most of the time.

So if for you trading is just a hobby and money is not a problem, you can trade exactly as it's laid out in the first post and then risking 15-30% per trade if you want.

But if you want to treat this as a real business, you can not risk more than 1-2% per trade nor relying on an indicator for your success.

If the TDI was the edge, everyone on this thread would be profitable and obviously this is not the case.

From time to time I read here that the 'best TMS traders' are the ones keeping the things 'simple' trading exactly the way it's described in the first post, but I would like to know where are these supposed 'best traders'?
As far as I know, some 'regular posters' changed this method to fit their personality then created their own threads based on TMS and never came back here.

Besides I see many beginners are still confusing the words; Big E's wish was to make Trading Simple, not Easy.

And I am sorry if I hurt anybody's feelings but the TDI without a proper knowledge of Price Action is a big waste of time.

TDI is only a commercial product 'created' by a vendor named Malone to make money attracting newbies with its 'simplicity'
but this type of oscillator (RSI+MA cross) had been created long before.

A TDI cross only shows price momentum and we can see this without any indicator, only by watching the normal Japanese Candlesticks: Big or Small Candle (Body Size), Long or Short Wick (Shadows).

If TDI is not necessary why are you still posting here?

The way I see this thread is not about an indicator called TDI in fact this method is called 'Trading Made Simple' not 'Trading with the TDI'.

So I think the purpose of this thread is to make trading simple and TDI is just a tool used as learning wheels for newbies to accomplish this purpose and when they gain more experience, they can decide if they drop it or keep it on their charts.

Another thing I see is people complaining about how this thread has 'changed' and it has been 'hijacked', that is not like at the beginning and it is not simple anymore.

But let's be serious, with the exception of Big E, this thread in the beginning was a bunch of noobs talking about two colorful lines crossing each other.

At least now, people here are talking about Confluence of Round Numbers, Monthly Swings and Previous OHLC as S&R, etc. Which Big E would have called basic FX things.

And more important subjects like:

Trade Management: Scaling in and out.
Position sizing: Multiple Entries/Exits
Money Management: 1-2% Risk
Psychology: Dealing with Drawdown

I still find this very simple, but newbies want things easy.

The sooner you understand that the entry method though still necessary is less than 10% of a system, the sooner you'll get out of the 95% group of losers.

The sooner you realize FF with the exception of certain people is a place full of newbies trying to look wiser by teaching other newbies, the sooner you'll get out of the 95% group.

The sooner you find out that with certain exceptions, FF members who have a red flag only mean they have a lot of buddies/suscribers and don't post any valuable information , the sooner you'll get out of the 95% group.

The sooner you start applying Position Sizing, Money Management, Risk Management and Trade Management to your TMS method and develop your own system, the sooner you'll get out of the 95% group.

I laugh now because I used to be like those criticizing the 'change'/'improvement' of this method until I finally opened my mind and my performance started to get better.

The Market is a changing enviroment, so the method also must evolve and adapt to it.

Question is: Do you want to trade and make it simple or do you want to trade and make money?

I simply want to make money.

P.S:

I just finished to compile into a pdf great posts where some members like Emmanuel and others write about the importance of Position Sizing and more themes.

I hope you find it useful.

Cheers.

Use paperclip top right.
Download pdf's that has BigE or TDI or TMS in title.
Only need to read BigE's posts in blue to understand TMS.
Decide what time-frame to trade on, jumping between frames will lead to confusion. read post#280

I am relaying in TDI only - practise post#276,
I need to study candlestick pattern too, in order to read PA from the chart.
What do you see or understand in candlestick pattern.

You still do not understand. Maybe this post from BigE will help.

#486
I'm disappointed in a few of you and your actions. This is my thread and my method... traded the way I've laid it out.
I don't want to see any more posts that discuss other indicators... other ways... I'm here to help you to make money at no cost to you and I've invested thousands of hours doing just that.
Just show your support and respect that were discussing the 5 method... making trading simple.
If you want to share your other ways or indicators then PM the person that is interested. Don't post it on our thread...

Member Black wrote:

The sooner you understand that the entry method though still necessary is less than 10% of a system, the sooner you'll get out of the 95% group of losers.

The sooner you realize FF with the exception of certain people is a place full of newbies trying to look wiser by teaching other newbies, the sooner you'll get out of the 95% group.

The sooner you find out that with certain exceptions, FF members who have a red flag only mean they have a lot of buddies/suscribers and don't post any valuable information , the sooner you'll get out of the 95% group.

The sooner you start applying Position Sizing, Money Management, Risk Management and Trade Management to your TMS method and develop your own system, the sooner you'll get out of the 95% group.
- - - - - - - -

Above four points were made by member Black, and i could not agree more. I would go even further and say that forums in general are not very effective or efficient place to learn how to trade. For traders with experience there is value is seeing other members approaches (also because we can smell BS quickly), but for newer traders it can all become very confusing and unnecessarily create a longer journey to profitability. Books, self-study, small like-minded groups/mentors, curiosity, and perseverance are my suggested ingredients.

The reason 95% of traders are unprofitable is not because the act of trading itself is difficult, but rather they do not have a written plan or lack the will to follow it strictly. Plain and simple.

All the best,
N

Thank you for this post, it just gave me a face palm, why didn't I realize that, moment.

Hi Black
Below is a post from BigE:
#486
I'm disappointed in a few of you and your actions. This is my thread and my method... traded the way I've laid it out.
I don't want to see any more posts that discuss other indicators... other ways... I'm here to help you to make money at no cost to you and I've invested thousands of hours doing just that.
Just show your support and respect that were discussing the 5 method... making trading simple.
If you want to share your other ways or indicators then PM the person that is interested. Don't post it on our thread...

Your post: As far as I know, some 'regular posters' changed this method to fit their personality then created their own threads based on TMS and never came back here.
Different in words same meaning.

post# 74909: The problem I find is with 3700+ pages I do not manage to find everything important and sometimes I am a bit loss...
(there are many posts like that)

This is all I want ------ "Just show your support and respect that were discussing the 5 method... making trading simple"

Allow new members to find their feet with TDI with BigE way of trading.
Make and keep it simple so that he / she can understand what is been said.
Allow newbie to set his own pace learning forex basic
Allow newbie decide on his own and in his own time there is more to trading then mere two lines crossing on a chart.
Allow newbie to chose if he want's to learn about:
"Position Sizing, Money Management, Risk Management and Trade Management to your TMS method and develop your own system" or just TDI useing BigE's Tradeing Made Simple.

Are these words so hard to understand: making trading simple

H1 setup candle
Bullish Engulfing Bar
H1 master candle
APB/Ha candle does not show the MC price bar Low

Now would you prefer to read above or below?

post#74782

AUDJPY ... closed out in less than 50 minutes (hope nobody followed me!) ... This is a perfect example of what can happen if you don't wait for the bar to close.

Even as a seasoned trader, I was impatient but pushed the rules to create the trade. Long-term trend was on my side although the D1 had crossed down and PA was below the 5EMA. Weekly chart shows PA trading flat for the last 5 weeks at year ago highs, but I focused on the H1 and an H4 that was less than 2 hours old, etc., etc., etc. In hindsight, there was little right about this trade and not taking a full position should have itself told me so.

Made a little money short the FTSE today but spent the rest of the time watching GBP pairs flying around and hating the fact I was not involved so I kept looking for a trade. Bad boy, wrong approach. Moral of the story here ... DON'T FORCE THE TRADE, BE PATIENT. IF YOU'RE NOT ABSOLUTELY SURE ... WAIT!

That's it, no more trading today, head not in the right place .... will read now.

Rub what the heck is a "face palm"
If it means a slap that switched on the light bulb good for you.

How about some serious trading discussions from now onward. Keep the spirit positive for open discussions and sharing.

AUDNZD H4 Week 04 Jan 24:

No buying yet as the current price action is below the 5EMA, Typical Price, Shift+3. The 5EMA is our direction for trading this 5-Method. To buy , we look for support and buy when we see buyer from the support.

Current H4 looks like it is sideways in a range now until we see another move. As it look now, Kiwi is the stronger one of the two cousins.

How about this one? A bit to early?

Hi Rupasi,

Don't worry I know what you meant about banning someone from this thread. I have got used to all kinds of people who come and go. It is a seasonal thing in public forums.

Now to answer your questions:

1) about Big E exit using his time 6am PST, he has his reasons. From my studies of his posts going back to 2009, that time exit is not really something I would follow. I will find another time to explain why and how I plan my trade entries and exits.

2) about GBPUSD - from hindsight which is always 20:20 vision, experts will say GU rallied after PM May spoke on Brexit the previous week. Now we will see more definitely action what will happen in the coming months. I am positive about Brexit and that the GBP will rise again in long term. The UK had been a great trading nation and partner to many other countries worldwide for many years before the EU came into being. The UK kept its Sterling and did not follow the common currency which was the right decision.

Now looking at our GU TMS H4 trading chart, we are at a BRN 1.2500 so the fight between buyers and sellers is at this BRN. As TMS 5-Method traders, we must know which is our short term trend and our long term trend looking at our charts. Whether Big E check higher timeframe is not important to me. I traded my own money following very basic rules of the 5-Method. I have mastered the 5-Method in the last 5 years after Big E passed away in Oct 2012 and I am confident when I break some very old and outdated rules.
If we sell now on H4 based on the current H4 candle which has not closed, we face the risk of trading a corrective move because the most recent trend is bullish. The realtime TDI is showing the momemtum now and the Green crossed the Red, but this can pull back if this H4 price bar pulls back to above its Open. Take nore of the recent APB/HA candles - the candle body size and the wicks. These are what Big E looked at for the PA. I am different from Big E, I read the real price action of the Price Bars over the APB/HA candle. I am very confident in the reading of the price action using the real price and the APB/HA become secondary. Anyway the TDI is derived from the real price not the APB/HA.
Whether traders use the Price Bar of the Japanese candlestick is up to them. To me both show the same market real price - its Open, High, Low and Close, OHLC.

Like Big E, I look at the three amigos - AUDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD. I also look at NZDUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD for the strength of the USD and whether there is correlation or not. To me and many experienced traders, this is easy and simple. Newbies will need time to learn many things to become better traders.

This week is the first week Mr Trump is in office. What he says and does, the markets react. Many economic analysts, experts, etc. have written reports about fundamentals, etc. I am not an expert on market fundamentals and I do not plagiarize those reports from other sources and cut and paste them in here. It is up to traders to read those reports and interpret them on their own.

This is what I am driving about Emmanuel. You understand what is a 5-Method setup candle.
Maybe I am as dumb as an stump I sure do not understand what you mean by that and I am sure neither will a newbie know.
When I look at the chart you posted I see:
1. No cross - conclusion do not waste time - walk away - look for a other set up - come back in 1 or 4 hours
or
I can:
AUDNZD H4 Week 04 Jan 24: No buying yet as the current price action is below the 5EMA, Typical Price, Shift+3. The 5EMA is our direction for trading this 5-Method. To buy , we look for support and buy when we see buyer from the support. Current H4 looks like it is sideways in a range now until we see another move. As it look now, Kiwi is the stronger one of the two cousins.

The fact is Emm I can not trade this pair for now and looking for clues will not change anything.

Also in the spirit of --- "Keep the spirit positive for open discussions and sharing"
Big Picture Planing --- How many hours or minutes do you spent doing that and for what purpose. The market does not care if you have a Big Picture Planing or plan A or plan B.
If you spend let say 1 hour to do top/down, Big Picture Planing, plan A / plan B and the market goes south instead of north are those plans then of any value.