Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Most traders fail because of no discipline!

I was giving much thought to my last post here and all the reasons that 95% of all Forex traders lose in this business.

The first thing that strikes me is that even if you accept that many of those reasons are accurate and apply to you which they probably do so what.

How do you overcome all of the obstacles to success ?

A Plan Of Action combined with the sentence that I started this post with. "Most traders fail because of no discipline !"

I agree with that completely however say you do have discipline as one of our better traders here surely does what do you do with that discipline ?

When we think or explain something it is natural to do this from our own life experiences and our own assumptions and experiences.

That leads me to now understand better why the excellent results achieved here since 7 weeks ago on December 3, 2016, I decided to start my thread , "Money Flow Method and Risk Management" have happened.

I always knew that I could teach Forex Traders to be successful and change their mindset and in the past I had tried on some other websites however I was not ready myself to teach properly since I also had to learn certain lessons of communication and patience.

Just like KeepCalmfx and some others have reached high levels of success since December 27, 2016 , 25 days ago , I have also learned much about how to go about being more effective in teaching and sharing information here on Forex Factory.

The whole point of my post this morning is to say that once you have made the DECISION to make trading Forex a living other than a part time way of maybe making some money you are almost guaranteed great success and wealth. However that can only happen if you have the mindset and skills to control your fears and greed and ego and to open your mind completely to trade Forex as it should be traded.

That is why I always knew that unless trading Forex was taught using a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account . I could never establish if the person that I was teaching had the DISCIPLINE and the psychological make up to become part of what I call the 5% club.

One of the most important things that you all can do here is to communicate better since every time anyone here posts we all become better at what we are trying to achieve since in the end it also is about COMMUNICATION.

On that note it would be helpful and positive for myself and all of us here whether we post much or not to offer your thoughts here to be shared with everyone how you see things after the 49 days that we have been sharing this life experience. Think about it carefully because once you realize that there is really an opportunity to become a winning Forex Trader financially then it really is all up to you.

Best regards to all,


Benjaminis

Hi, I took a picture of trades I did last week and I added my comments about the possible problems (as mentioned in post 1420). I have learnt here that it is important to read news about what is going on in the world and try to make sense out of it (even though it takes a lot of time), then one is able to come up with a plan. The other thing is to stick to that plan and not being afraid of a loss.

Actually mbleska , for the moment until you are able YOU do not have to take one minute of your time to come up with a plan.

We have until March 31, 2017 , 4 TRADE PLANS.
(1) Short US 30 - 100 units - STOP LOSS - $1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 maybe as high as 1 to 3. Lower stops once you have minimum profit.

(2) Short USD/JPY - 100 units - STOP LOSS - $1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 and LOWER STOPS to always lock in minimum profit of $250 US Dollars.

(3) LONG Gold - 100 Ounces - STOP LOSS - $1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 and as High as 1 to 3.

(4) Long Silver - 5000 Ounces - STOP LOSS - S1000 US Dollars - Risk Reward at least 1 to 1 and as High as 1 to 3.

THAT IS IT !!! Just have the DISCIPLINE to do it !!!

AS FOR FEAR OF LOSS , FIRST LEARN ON YOUR $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK Demo Account. Unless you are really really good now STOP trading Real Funds.

This is about learning good habits and getting confidence then you will trade much more effectively with your own funds and I strongly suggest a Minimum Trading Account of $10,000 US Dollars and then you can NEVER have on more than 20% of your capital or no more than 2 positions of 100 units at any one time.


Benjaminis

Some follow up comments from Hanover today, that I share here via Copy and Paste and On Topic.

Quoting executivefx
Many traders lack discipline because forex trading is just a side hustle to them but the day you walk out of your comfort zone and the only source of income left is forex trading thats the last day you will ever struggle with being disciplined.

An interesting perspective. I believe it ultimately depends on how an individual copes with pressure. The higher the monetary stakes, the greater the pressure; if trading is your only income source, then even more so. Sure, you can't afford lapses in discipline, but the issue is: does this strengthen your resolve, or does it generate increased fear, and bring greater emotion into your decision making?

A lot of aspiring traders are successful in demo. But, as everybody knows, the vast majority blow their real money accounts, and quit. To whatever extent ill-discipline was their biggest problem, they failed to cope with the added pressure.

Quoting shrips
Best comment of the thread so far!!! The survival instinct kicks in and somehow you adapt to whats required to be a successful trader.
Like being thrown in the deep end of the swimming pool: either you quickly learn how to swim, or you drown?
But is profitable trading the same as swimming? Or does it require more than merely a "survival instinct", e.g. some knowledge and experience?

Quoting alphaomega
 Underestimating the effect of br0ker costs
The Trading game is negatively skewed by default for the retail traders........


Agree 100%...... costs are possibly the biggest reason why reversing a 'losing' system doesn't create a winning one. Most systems are ineffectual rather than 'losing', i.e. given enough time, they would generate an approxinately breakeven result, if costs didn't exist.

COMMENTARY FROM BENJAMINIS: Business is like life. If you do not have discipline in life and a desire to have a good life and have good life habits then trading Forex is much more difficult to earn money in.

However just like starting any business if you do not have the proper working capital your business will fail.

In Forex you must have the proper amount of Forex trading funds to have any chance of success. You need to understand how to trade before you just throw away money. There are so many experts and services available and some are very expensive. The problem with most of those even if the service is from a Professional Forex Trader is the other issues of proper capital and the time to run your business without major distractions.

Then FOR SURE , you most control risk.

I am the living proof of that since that is the path that I took over the last 14 years and it works.

My results confirm that and my ability to teach is only because of some of you as it confirms my teaching objectives.

Your thoughts are important to me so please reply when you ave the time.

Thank You


Benjaminis

http://www.financialsense.com/matthe...interest-rates

Snippet:
When the cost of money changes, everything changes. Interest rates affect every aspect of the financial universe.

At the global level, they impact currency and trade flows between nations. At the national level, they affect the discounted value of future cash flows, the market’s multiple, and the desirability of items such as real estate and debt. And at the micro level, they impact the financing and investment decisions of all individuals and small businesses.

Interview Shifting Landscapes
That’s why it’s important to understand whether the bump in rates that we’ve seen recently is indicative of a new, secular trend, or merely a correction in the bond bull market that has lasted over three decades.

Let’s begin with the chart below, which shows the yield on the 10-year Treasury note over the past 50 years. Notice that after the major spike during the early 1980’s, interest rates settled into a long-term secular downward trend.

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...17/0119/01.png

The trendlines that create this downward sloping channel are rare in the degree of precision they exhibit. Notice that the top trendline marked a short-term cyclical peak in interest rates on six separate occasions, and it has not been breached even once during the last three decades.

As big believers in technical analysis, and the power of the primary trend, it’s difficult to contest this price action. Using prices as our guide (or in this case, rates derived from prices) the primary trend of long-term interest rates is still down.

But let’s be realistic here.

If we were to continue the channel that has defined our bellwether interest rate further to the right, we’d find that eventually the entire channel would be in negative-rate territory.

Don't miss Martin Armstrong: Stock Market Bubble Still to Come
So unless the US economy tanks and investors decide they want to pay the US government to hold their money for long periods of time, this channel will be broken … it’s just a matter of when.

Right now, a move above roughly 2.7% would constitute a break of the long-term secular trend in interest rates. We were close to that level, at 2.6%, just one month ago.

Therefore, while a firm secular downward trend in interest rates currently exists, we are likely to see that dynamic change this year. Bear in mind, however, that this does not necessarily imply an upward trend is beginning.

For all we know, we could simply enter into a range-bound pattern as shown below.

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...17/0119/02.png

Rates have been inside this range (approximately 1.5 – 3.0%) for over five years now. Could this be an indicator of “secular stagnation,” as proposed by Larry Summers, and/or the “new normal” put forth by Bill Gross?

It’s very possible.

One interesting observation previously set forth here is the disappearance of risk premium in the Treasury markets. We can see this in the chart below, which shows the 10-year Treasury yield in blue and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in red.

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...17/0119/03.png

The CPI shows how fast purchasing power is being eroded, while the 10-year yield shows how much compensation bond owners receive.

The convergence of these two lines over the past three decades suggests that bond owners these days are receiving little more than compensation for lost purchasing power. That is, their reward for bearing risk has all but evaporated.

This is important for two reasons. The first is because fixed income investors need to understand that right now bonds are doing very little to “get them ahead.” While you might have more money in 10 years’ time, your purchasing power will not have improved very much, if at all.

The other reason this is important has to do with predicting where interest rates will head. While predicting interest rates used to be a function of two variables (expected inflation and risk premium), it’s now mostly a function of one: expected inflation.

That makes our jobs easier, at least it would seem. But as we all know, predicting the direction of even just one economic variable can be incredibly difficult. Especially when you consider how a strong move in other related variables (the dollar, for example) can derail any thesis we may have.

Lately, we’ve seen a variety of possible forces that may act to boost inflation, but we’ve also seen some moves (again, think the dollar) that have the possibility of keeping inflation at bay. Here’s a rundown of some of the forces in play:
Driving inflation higher:

1. Proposed fiscal (deficit) spending
2. Proposed tax cuts
3. Proposed deregulation
4. Improved economic outlook and consumer/business confidence
5. Rebounding price of oil and other commodities
6. Continued improvement in labor markets (more jobs)

Driving inflation lower:

1. Strong dollar, which makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive
2. Low inflation levels and general lack of growth around the rest of the world
3. Expected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve
4. Lack of productivity growth and productivity catalysts
5. Demographic trends including lower population growth

These lists are by no means exhaustive, which should give you an idea of how difficult inflation is to predict. Making matters worse, there are numerous feedback loops and optionality effects that impact these variables.

But there is an interesting dynamic here and it relates to this: most of the catalysts that would drive inflation higher are still in the “proposed” state. In fact, nearly all factors supporting higher inflation, aside from rebounding commodity prices and continued labor market health, depend upon the incoming administration.

This makes sense, as prior to the Trump election the consensus was still that we were in a low growth, low inflation world. The dramatic shift since election day has seen a sharp rise in inflation expectations, which drove rates higher, but nearly all of this is speculation so far. It remains to be seen what changes will actually come to fruition.

And let’s not forget another fact: The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining “price stability,” aka 2% inflation. While we know that the Fed is okay with inflation running a little hot (perhaps up to 2.5%), they will keep a lid on rising prices (devaluation of the dollar) if it gets out of hand.


Listen to Forecast 2017: The Oracles
That means that long-run inflation expectations should be anchored around 2 – 2.5% on the high end. If that’s the case, then considering the near-absence of risk premium, the yield on the 10-year Treasury should stay around 2.5 – 3.0%. This would keep us firmly inside the range outlined in the second chart of this article.

So have we and are we seeing a secular shift in interest rates? The answer is yes, but no. Our secular bull market in bonds may be coming to an end, but instead of a bear market, we may find ourselves in a secular range-bound or “cowardly lion” market for years to come.

The preceding content was an excerpt from Dow Theory Letters.


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About Matthew Kerkhoff

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...cture-3089.jpg
Matthew Kerkhoff
Chief Investment Strategist at Model Investing
Primary Tel: 858.529.5392
matt @ modelinvesting.com
https://modelinvesting.com/

More Feedback About DISCIPLINE and other matters concerning success trading Forex.

Quoting hanover

{quote} Agree 100%...... and costs are possibly the biggest reason why reversing a 'losing' system doesn't create a winning one. I suspect that most systems are ineffectual rather than 'losing', i.e. given enough time, they would generate an approxinately breakeven result, if costs didn't exist.


Yep! I have done extensive algo testing and simulations in the past ( a few years ago) just to prove it for myself. And the results confirm what the academics say.

Over 99% of all mechanical systems with rigid repeatable rules tend to produce trade expectancy = 0 (before cost)

Only a few systems produce very small deviations (positive or negative).

In most cases the deviation is Insufficient to cover the transaction cost.

It doesn't matter what the system is. You can come up with any combination of indicators, patterns..rules......whatever......the result is the same!
The end conclusion is that, rigid rules purely based on technicals = ZERO edge in 99,99999% of the cases .

One of the main reasons why retail trading even exist(and is so popular), is because the vast vast majority of traders do not understand the implications of the above.

I find it funny and tragic, that most books and gurus, suggest that to succeed in trading you have to have your system set in stone, and then apply solid discipline, and follow your rules religiously.

Too bad. Because this is the exact type of behavior which INSURES the you will lose money in the long run.
Now let's talk conspiracy, and who is pushing this agenda.....

@mbleska USDJPY we are projecting 105, you can use Fibonacci Retracement ratios 50% or 61% with 1000$ SL
I repeat find the major trend and look for Retracement.

The institution moves the market for that reason major trend forums. When institution starts taking profit during that time it Retracement happen. If retracement cross the fibi key level that means the trend not valid. Avoid consolidation trading it means market is indecision.

BenjaminIs: I would like to ask you please give us the solid information about the Fibonacci Retracement technique. This is the only method I have found that can trade with 100 units and 1000$ SL which is 10 pip along with PA. (probability)

Technical indicator congratulations! Good lord we just learn how not to trade.

Correlation Trading, Weekly pivot/Fibonacci Retracement, pattern trading, Capital flow or trade flow if you miss the good entry buy/sell deep and 100 unit and 1000$ sl impossible.


Agree to disagree we can get news free from many sources over analysis leads to paralysis. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Rocky007 - This is the KEY for me as my charting skills while good is not something that I focus on and for the following reasons.

The logic of my Trade Plan Number One is Short US 30. That then leads me into CORRELATION with USD/JPY and for sure 99% US 30 MUST GO DOWN.
Therefore it will bring USD/JPY down as well.

I find a good entry so just looking at your excellent chart 115.616 might be where I short with confidence. If I am wrong as you can see the next resistance is at 116.634 so then , I scale in my second position. On a worst case scenario my loss is 2% per position or $1000 US Dollars. I also would NOT ENTER a Trade until we had Risk Off so there is many criteria.

When KeepCalmfx reads my reply then I would appreciate to hear how your question will be answered.

I use Technical Indicators for Entry more than exit as that part is much easier by getting good entry and even making a mistake the Risk Management protects your capital.

I hope I am explained it for you and others here. If not please post a follow up question. wayfarer can also answer your question having great skills with the technical indicators.


Benjaminis

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ket-operations

Snippet:
Bloomberg News
January 21, 2017, 9:05 PM EST

1. Central bank injected record amount of funds last week
2. Demand for money jumps before the Lunar New Year holidays

China’s central bank conducted 60 billion yuan ($8.7 billion) of open-market operations on Sunday, after injecting a record amount of funds last week and offering liquidity support to some lenders.

The monetary authority offered 30 billion yuan of 14-day reverse-repurchase agreements and 30 billion yuan of 28-day contracts. The People’s Bank of China pumped in a net 1.13 trillion yuan last week.

Demand for money jumps before the Lunar New Year holidays, also known as the Spring Festival, as families prepare to exchange gifts and meet for feasts. The holiday runs from Jan. 27 through Feb. 2 this year. The authority said Friday that it provided a 28-day temporary liquidity facility to some major commercial banks.

China’s money market has drawn global attention in recent months, with the People’s Bank of China guiding short-term interbank rates higher to dissuade people from using borrowed funds to buy assets such as bonds.

— With assistance by Yuling Yang, and Hui Li

HEADS UP IMPORTANT TO READ !!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

In a podcast interview on MacroVoices, Macro Guru Raoul Pal makes some comments on some of the biggest imbalances in the markets today.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...170121_pal.jpg
He compares the VIX contango trade to the portfolio insurance problem that was blamed for the 1987 crash...

1. they don't realize the rate of change of the VIX can be so extraordinary that the losses can mount up massively and super quickly

Pal then goes on to discuss the record level of speculative long positions in the oil markets compares to the conditions in the summer of 2014 prior to the bear market decline

1. The other thing was speculative position in crude oil was all time high in fact if I took the trend going back from the early 80's it was seven standard deviations above that trend and well over three standard deviations maybe four standard deviations from the trend in the last 20 years or 15 years.
2. I've seen a similar situation with copper driven by China and a few other things where copper position is wildly extreme and so I start to think well too much reflation is priced into these things maybe there’s an interesting opportunity on the short side
3. What is interesting oil volatility has been coming lower. Look, I don't think it's going to get back to where it was in 2014 when it was trading below 20 but it has come down from a peak of 80, a kind of a real trading range of 50 down to 30. If it comes any lower the ability to buy options start to make sense because oil volatility can go to 80 can go to a 100

Full podcast:

Excerpts of the interview:
Erik: One of the risk factors that we discussed last time was this crazy VIX contango trade where basically people are shorting VIX futures because each time they roll that contract forward they capture the contango by being short and they see it as a way to produce income. Of course, you know that's not just picking up nickels in front of a steamroller, that's pennies being pried out from under the steamroller and so far a big downdraft in equity prices has not happened which was the big risk that you saw there. You described how if there was a sudden downward move in equity prices it could really blow up in these guys' faces. Is that risk still in the system, is that trade still on or have people wised up and gotten out of it?
Raoul: No, that trade still goes on to this day and it reminds me a lot of the portfolio insurance stuff around 1987 or some of the kind of spread trade Low Vol trades that happens around 1998 people go over their ski tips with this stuff. They think it's all manageable and they think that OK we can sell VIX and if we lose money on that, we'll use this as an opportunity to buy stock because we've been taking in premiums but they don't realize the rate of change of the VIX can be so extraordinary that the losses can mount up massively and super quickly.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0121_VIX_0.jpg
So, I worry about that position. I worry about a whole world that sets up for low volatility when you've got a new administration that is almost unquantifiable. We don't know what kind of volatility should be under an administration like this but a relatively aggressive administration should create more volatility overall so at which case the generalized level of volatility should rise.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...0111_WTF_0.jpg
If the past 20 years of global historical data is anything to go by, that 'awakening' of uncertainty is very bad news...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau..._breslow_0.jpg
Erik: Well I’ll see if you want to grade me on the thoughts I have. The only real directional trade that I see right here is long the dollar index and I think we agree on that we've already discussed the reasons why.

Beyond that the things I'm looking at there, if I look at the term structure of crude oil. We've got a fairly steep contango for a few months but then we see backwardation in the belly of the curve. So apparently, we're not going to need storage after June or July or so it's going to be a non-issue those tanks are going to be empty. I'm not buying that story.

So I do see a curve steepener trade that is-- I actually just bought a bunch of spreads short June, long December. Just thinking that at that point there was backwardation in that segment of the curve I don't think that's going to stay in backwardation I think by the time June gets here we're going to be looking at contango again.

So that's one trade that I see the other one I'm kind of waiting for and I’m lining up quite a few dominoes here is I think that Trump is going to get tough with ISIS very quickly after entering office and I wouldn't be surprised if there's some kind of ultimatum, ISIS knock it off or else, and I think there's so much hysteria right now politically there's so many people with such polarized viewpoints that you could easily see a an overreaction, a massive upward spike in oil prices because a lot of paranoid people are convinced that Donald Trump is going to launch nuclear weapons on ISIS or something.

I don't think that'll actually happen. If there was a $25 up spike in oil prices from here I would look at that as a very very ripe shorting opportunity because I don't think prices can go $25 higher and stay there because the shale revolution will be restarted, the bakken will be relaunched and those prices will come back down.

So I don't want to bet on the up spike I'm not convinced it will happen if it does happen I'll definitely bet on the mean reversion. Frankly that's all I can really see at this point for trades.

Raoul: So to add on about oil. Oil is interesting to me because if you remember I made a very public forecast on oil way back in 2015 I think it was, when I said look I think oil is going to fall to $30 dollars a barrel it was like at 110 at the time and luckily it got there these things don’t always work out that way but it did and the reason I had a lot of faith was twofold one the dollar was going up and I thought it would go much higher which obviously is the normal nature of oil prices so that helps that.

The other thing was speculative position in crude oil was all time high in fact if I took the trend going back from the early 80's it was seven standard deviations above that trend and well over three standard deviations maybe four standard deviations from the trend in the last 20 years or 15 years. So, the position was huge.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...121_pal1_0.jpg
If I look at it now again, I'm looking again at my Bloomberg screen as we speak it's equal to where it was. So, it came, all the way back down, it's got all the way back up. So, the market is wildly gigantically bullish on crude oil and that is something that starts looking like an opportunity to me on the short side.
I get what you're saying about the price risk which is always the danger of shorting crude oil it's always a bit of a negative gamma trade. So it makes it a bit nervous but I still think that crude oil comes lower so I’m bullish in that.

I've seen a similar situation with copper driven by China and a few other things where copper position is wildly extreme and so I start to think well too much reflation is priced into these things maybe there’s an interesting opportunity on the short side.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...121_pal2_0.jpg
Erik: Yeah, I very much agree with that I want to be short equities here and I want to be short crude oil but I don't dare to touch either trade from the short side right now because there's been so much bullish hysteria in the equity market. I don't know what's going to happen to you know sell the inauguration. OK I've said sell quite a few times in the last few years and been wrong so I want to be short but-- emotionally I want to, I can't bring myself to do it because there's just been-- every time I say OK the market can't possibly go higher than this it ends up going higher.

In the case of crude oil, I'm convinced that this rally has played out from a fundamental standpoint. It’s that hysteria risk that if it happens it's a fantastic opportunity to go short. I would consider puts on crude oil here as a speculation that maybe they'll go lower. But I don't want be an outright futures here I'd rather be in puts on futures and have a very limited downside if Trump scares everybody.

If that happens – I don't think it's a real risk – I just think it's hysteria and look at there's actually been an increase in residency applications in Chile because there are people freaking out about Donald Trump so much that they want to be in the southern hemisphere for when he starts the nuclear war that's a fact. This is hysteria and until it settles down I don't want to be on the short side of the oil trade unless it's using options or something protected.

Raoul: Yeah, I agree. What is interesting oil volatility has been coming lower. Look, I don't think it's going to get back to where it was in 2014 when it was trading below 20 but it has come down from a peak of 80, a kind of a real trading range of 50 down to 30. If it comes any lower the ability to buy options start to make sense because oil volatility can go to 80 can go to a 100 so maybe buying some puts on oil or you buy kind of out of the money calls out of the money puts If you've got the view that you have that there is a tail risk events of something that Trump administration will do to drive up the price of oil and that's possible don't forget that the economic policies is credibly pro oil in the U.S. right now with the new administration. So, it is in that economic interest to drive up the price of oil.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...121_pal3_0.jpg
So yes, I can see that too. I love these kinds of puzzles. These are the kind of ones that get me up at night thinking wow, that’s interesting, you've got all of the reasons why the oil price should fall, all of the geopolitical reasons and business reasons why the U.S. wants a higher oil price so how does this play out what does that mean for us.

My thoughts on technical analysis pair USD / JPY . We are seeing a hidden divergence, which has already begun to be practiced. According to the theory of Charles Dow, "the price includes all" movements in the price already included all the fundamental and technical indicators.

Good Morning wayfarer

Would you please explain to me and others here more background on your chart on USD/JPY and divergence. Where does the hidden divergence come from ? What is the immediate significance of this discovery ? Can we watch it on a day to day basis ? Since we know there is STRONG CORRELATION between US 30 and USD/JPY would this same divergence show up in US 30 ?

My questions are posted so that I can learn more from wayfarer who has skills that I do not have. That also is my point to everyone that comes here and posts. The STRENGTH of our results is because of our communications and exchange of ideas and it gives me more motivation and desire to take my time to post and share and answer questions and as you can see pose questions. I look forward to hearing from everyone later today.

Enjoy your Sunday and Let Us Do It !!!


Benjaminis

Quoting Rocky007: BenjaminIs: I would like to ask you please give us the solid information about the Fibonacci Retracement technique. This is the only method I have found that can trade with 100 units and 1000$ SL which is 10 pip along with PA. (probability) quote]

I make use of Davit's weekly pivots as heads up for entry and exit levels. These levels is base on Fib points and as on my chart below is zones that price usually respect. We know the main trend is down as per the Money Flow and our trading plan.

I agree with you Benjamin. 115.61 is a very good entry point, price rejects the pivot point multiple times. With the risk being off, when entering a 100 pip Stop Loss would be 116.634, which is in the area of R38. The probability of price going down to S61 - 112.81 is good. However if price goes against us +/- $500 we enter another position, then wait and if we were wrong we take a loss of $1000, maximum 2% per trade and 6% per trade plan.

If you would have used the Fib on the 4hour then the 50% retracement would be at the area of 116.63 for a short position. I do not use Fib's but Davit's pivots as zones for head's up and then price confirmation and Benjamin's indicators.

This post is a very powerful post, thank you.

I agree that there is many obstacles to overcome to be a successful Forex trader.
I also agree that with a plan of action and discipline it can help to become successful, but one other main ingredient is important to become one of the 5%. That is the psychological side of trading, your mind set and with your method to learn without fear, greed and ego on a $50 000 demo account one can achieve that.

I also agree, the 1st step to make trading Forex a living is to make that Decision, that this is really something that you want, that you will do whatever it takes to achieve your goal, you must have a burning desire, because without that BURNING desire to make trading Forex a living it would be very difficult to overcome all these daily obstacle that is in your way of reaching success.

Then communication in this thread is just as important, because everyone thinks differently and by having different view point or opinions we can all learn and also we have different skills, so if we all contribute we will become better and better each day.

If something is easy/simple to do/follow, we tend to make it complicated because we can not understand that something so simple can be so powerful/successful. I myself makes things more complicated sometimes as it really is or should be.

So I agree, keep it simple. All you need to do is follow the 4 trade plans, sell when risk is off, enter your position at the top, add you Stop loss and Take profit and if the market reverse add another position with Stop Loss and take profit and let the market do its thing. We must just have the discipline to follow the plan each day and success will follow.

Trading can become monotonous. I think that trading for some people can be very boring, having the discipline to do each day the same. Is risk on or off. Enter if the price is high, set your stop loss and take profit if the market reverse, add another and do the same the next day and each day there after. When people get boring they want to do something different, get that blood flowing, have that rush. But as soon as you go off the course off our plan, then there is where you get into trouble.

Excellent KeepCalmfx

You hit the nail on the head. I myself could not have said it better. The one character trait that I have above any other is common sense and NO EGO when it comes to doing something the right way.

If I have one weakness it is that I am a perfectionist and I many times give too much detail. That is the way that I think however, what KeepCalmfx just said is the correct reply. It was simple and to the point. The KISS Theory.

What we teach and have shared here over the last 50 days definitely works. We use common sense by first developing 4 Trade Plans. We do NOT need more than that to earn substantial profits.

Why use other plans since ours is based on logic and common sense and correlation. Then to that we add Risk Management and DISCIPLINE and to do it gives you the chance to learn DISCIPLINE which is enforced by your success.

We have it all so let us not think so much and just make money and enjoy our life.


Benjaminis

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
Now that Donald Trump has been inaugurated as the 45th President, all eyes will be on his first 100 days as he demonstrates what kind of president he will be, and his cabinet takes action. But even with the best intentions and carefully laid plans, there is no telling at this point how firmly he will be tested, and what kind of crisis America will have to endure during his first term. Wars, terror attacks, civil unrest, debt crisis and financial collapse all loom overhead.


Many have seen dark signals about the immediate future, but no one can claim to know the timing.

However, former Wall Street banker and now best selling critic of the predatory financial system Nomi Prins sees the pattern unfolding, and fears that the end of 2017 may be the time that everyone has been watching for. At the center of it is the whiplash effect of Federal Reserve stimulus-withdrawal (i.e. rate hikes and the contraction of easy money).

Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog interviewed Nomi Prins:
Former top Wall Street banker and best-selling author Nomi Prins correctly predicted no financial crash for 2016. Prins’ upcoming book is titled “Artisans of Money.” It is all about central bank money creation. What does Prins say about this year? Prins predicts, “In 2016, I pegged the non-crash. . . . Central bankers were finding new ways to extend their money creation policies. That is what kept the markets up.

There was a separate bid on the markets after Trump was elected. It was on the expectation that he would be good for growth, that he would be good for infrastructure and that he would create jobs. I do think there is a little juice in the central banks. I keep thinking there shouldn’t be, but they keep surprising all of us with their ability to boost the markets.

They have artificially stimulated so many different asset bubbles, whether it’s debt, which is epic, or stock markets, many of which are at historic highs.

If we have a crash, it will be in the second half of 2017. The promises, the rate hikes, the dollar being high could collapse into the realities of the stability and this artificialness. I am not sure about a crash this year, but if we see a big decline, it will be in the last quarter.”

Prins foresees gold prices surging during this last quarter period of instability. Those who’ve been eating sinking gold prices may find some relief once again, but the larger economic system is in danger of crashing and burning, and the possibility that the dollar will lose out:

“I think with the expectation of things going well, the dollar will be keeping a bit of a bid. It will be within a range but staying fairly up. I think the dollar will turn around and weaken in the second half of the year. . . .That’s why, in the last half of the year, gold will catch more of a bid.”

Prins discussed the alliance between Russia and China and what is about to unfold geopolitically.
“Because Russia, Putin’s very smart. He’s not just waiting to see what happens with Trump and the U.S. You know, there’s been very favorable rhetoric so far, but, you know, that could be a wild card. Things could be changed.

Someone could get annoyed at someone else. So what he’s been doing, he’s been fortifying his relationship with Eastern Europe, his relationships with the UK, with Japan and particularly his relationship with China and the non-Russia BRICS countries. So all of this will be in flux…”


According to Nomi Prins, the crash wouldn’t be so much an immediate headline flashing-event, as it would be a steady decline and gradual sinking to the bottom.

BenjaminIs, План действительно работает. Я не мог следить за ценой и время , чтобы зафиксировать прибыль. Я буду знать в будущем поведение DOU30 В описании хорошо говорится о скрытой дивергенции. То же HD и по графику DOU30. Там до сих пор я не показал линии S / R. KeepCalmfx показано на графике, цены находятся на уровне поворота, он также говорит о возможном движении на юг [Придавать] Screenshot_38.png; 2150319 [/ приложите] http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php/1816127 ? = 1816127 вложения & d = 1450553634

Here is the translation of wayfarer's words on his charts.

BenjaminIs, Pattern Indeed rabotaet. I did not MOG trail for tsenoy & Time, Avto zafyksyrovat profit. I know in the future behavior in DOU30 Description Good hovorytsya at skrыtoy divergence. That same graphics in HD and DOU30. There still I have not shown LINES S / R. KeepCalmfx shown in the schedule, prices are back at the level of rotation, He also talk about Perhaps Movement in South [crushed] Screenshot_38.png; 2150319 [/ prilozh]

Would KeepCalmfx please review the answer and comment as I still am not sure of what the reply means as to our need or ability to monitor the divergence. Thank You

wayfarer , I see that you are online now. Could you please follow up this post with further explanation based on my questions now. Thank You.


Benjaminis

Hi Benjamin, I can not explain it better as in the attached information from below website.

http://www.babypips.com/school/high-...vergences.html