Price-Structure-Order flow

Hello Aud...
I have used your screen shots to show what I am referring to as Order Flow balance and imbalance. I also added (on your smaller time frame) the entry signal that I usually use. These charts are perfect examples of what I was referring to in an earlier post. Remember the market ALWAYS goes from balance to imbalance...and vise versa.

On your larger time frame I drew a few more balance areas so you can examine how they look between the two time frames. The "trick" I found is when I am having difficulty determining if the order flow is balanced...I go UP a time frame to see if it looks clearer. The time frame I am able to identify most clearly is the time frame I use to trade...it is not always the same.

Also remember the order flow does NOT divide itself into time frames...we do. So you must search the entire market to find the time frame you see it most clearly and use that.

Thanks for the reply Don. Just re looking at my charts!

" "
Nice thread you got....am also trying to work on flow.....i am in gu and eu buy now.....eu in little negative...my entry is still work in progress..

stopped,forgot to check if there was news....

Update on EUR/USD - Long:

Frustrating morning!! Price came to within 4 pips of my take profit level then sped away against me. This is obviously in response to Mario Draghi's comments. Every time one of these political morons opens his mouth my trade goes crashing down. Same happens during the FED. Supposedly this is to "help" us understand!! right! Shut the hell up and do your job!

Anyway, Price is now down into an area where I might anticipate the sellers would peter out, and buyers to be more interested...but that probably will not yet happen until the idiot stops talking...remember too, the Asian Market still has to react to the news.

GBP/USD - Long:

All the "drama" with the Euro, and Mario Draghi has caused my trades to trigger on the GBP/USD long. Almost made all three, but came short on the last one. We may yet trigger that trade depending on the volatility that follows...especially in Asia, tonight.

Hello Carbondado. A humble suggestion if I may. I can see from your charts that you seem to just enter without really looking at what the entire market is doing. Your EUR/USD entry suggests that you are "trigger happy" and afraid that you might miss the move if you don't get on board "right now".

May I suggest that you leave entries and exits to the side right now. Don't worry about where to get in or out. Instead focus your efforts on "seeing" how the order flow is affecting prices across as much of the market as possible. NOT just a single time frame. I like to put the charts up side by side so you can see everything at once, but some prefer to just move through the time frames one by one...however you do it is fine. The point being that it is nearly impossible to know what the order flow is doing by looking at a single time frame. Yes you will see what is happening relative to every 15 min (or what ever time frame you choose), but the market is far bigger and you will eventually find you are entering too late or too soon.

As an example, I have included a screen shot of my scalping set up. These are mostly volume and tick charts but you can see that they look at the entire market out to the daily chart. This is just so I can scalp 30 pips per day. But in order to get that goal consistently I feel I need to look at the ENTIRE market. Remember that price on the right hand side of your chart is the same price on ALL the charts, the only difference is the detail seen in each move AND the amount of history to the left.

Once you begin to see how the order flow is affecting prices, and where people's stops might naturally be placed, your entries will become obvious and effortless. As well, your exits. You will naturally put your entries where you anticipate the order flow to move in your direction, and your exits where you think the order flow might turn to balance.

" "
thanks would work on that.......i was kinda triggger happy on the e/u trade....it is work in progress.

I am the same way!! That's how I am able to recognize it in your trading. I am very familiar with that kind of entry

I must be vigilant in trying to keep that in check...in fact on this thread you can see a couple of entries where I did just that on USD/JPY and lost. In my opinion, unnecessary losses because I didn't allow the signal to "mature" before entering. This kind of thing has nothing to do with the market however and can be corrected by using rules for entry that you develop based on your personality and how you see the order flow. Patience is the key. A difficult one for me, as I tend act decisively no matter what the cost.

Hello All...beginning of the week and surprises never cease. I have many trades going that were filled with the volatility that was produced by the Mario Draghi press conference. And while I was very pessimistic about a positive outcome, it would appear today that things are better. So I will go in alphabetical order.

AUD/USD - Long:

I am actually bearish on this market at the moment but have seen an opportunity for a counter trend trade. The ranging market seen on the 12 hr chart was triggered long at the bottom of the range, and is now positive. We are currently at the top of this range, so I will be looking for some structural formation to bring the stop in closer.

EUR/USD - Long:

This market was perhaps the most surprising for me. After missing my first target by just 4 pips, my aggregate position is not positive again. I feel sure it was going to stop out at the Sunday Gap, but am encouraged by the buying that has taken place over the Asian and European sessions. As we are again coming off close to 15 year lows, I suspect the buying may continue into mid week or so, and perhaps will finally hit my first target level.

GBP/USD - Long:

This trade also is working at the moment and is currently positive on the aggregate. As last week did produce a higher low AND a higher high I am anticipating new highs to extend up to the 1.29 level where I have placed my limits on this trade...this too is a counter trend trade however, it would appear that a new bullish trend is emerging. The real test for this trend will be above the 1.20-1.30 area. This is why I have placed my limit in this area, and will again wait to see what happens after the buyers and sellers slug it out.

WTI - Long:

This is the one trade where I was confident over the week end that we might have a rise above the trading range established over the last 6 months. This week-end a conference with NON-OPEC countries ended with an agreement to cut production in addition to all OPEC countries. Thus (theorectically) reducing supply are at least the glut of petroleum in an effort to manipulate prices into the $60/barrel area. The market gaped higher over the week end, and the market is now testing that gap. We may get a fill over the next few days, but my stop is now protecting a the lion's share of the remaining position at 400 pips.

Finally, USD/MXN - Short:

With oil prices rising, the Mexican Peso is starting to respond. The majority of the economy is based on petroleum, and the fall off in prices combined with jitters over the US elections, has caused this market to rise to all time highs...(low for the Peso). It would appear a retrace is underway. I am filled with only one position at present, and should we get a solid weekly close in this area or lower, I will cancel the remaining sell order at the top. I am looking for this market to fill the weekly cap caused by the US election.

Update on AUD/USD - Long:

Price has pushed up above the flat channel formed over the past two weeks, and is now retesting that top. This break has given me a structure to move my stop up to and locked in 40 pips. It is looking like that may be it for this trade but we shall see. It appears the USD is strengthening across the board.

Hello All...

Its been a couple of weeks since I posted. Took time off from trading during the end of year holiday season, and am now beginning to look at the markets again on a daily basis. I did peek at them during the vacation season, but really didn't study anything in depth.

I hope you all had a safe and happy holiday season, and used your time to celebrate the beginning of a new an promising year. I will be posting charts little by little this week as I finish up trading stats and records to put 2016 into the history books. As many of you know I started this thread to explore the possibility that trading forex (for me) would be a viable alternative to placing my money in a (pick your poison) investment/savings account. I am proud to report that as of the end of 2016 with only November and December closed in the books, the account is up 30+%. The statistics are proving out that even trading moderate size trades and setting reasonable goals for both stop and limit that modest goals of 50% per year or better are reasonable and achievable.

While this may not be the "sexy" 1,000% per year boast that many here have, I believe that results far superior to that offered by any "safe" institution are achievable. So lets think about this for just a moment. With 30% on the books in two months...if I stop now, and wait another year and repeat this process, I will double my savings in 3 years...tell me ANY institution that offers that to its clients?

There is an expression in English, "If you want something done right, do it yourself." I would like you (the reader) to focus on this through out the following posts. My trades and trading style have faults and losses, as does everyone. But if you keep your goals reasonable and achievable, you will soon realize that the potential is truly unlimited. Just remember, "reasonable and achievable."

So what does that mean? "Reasonable and Achievable". It means that I am tracking the potential in each trade and over the course of 100 trades (or more), I am finding where the majority of these trades run, then stop and turn. NOT for the purpose of trading reversals, but for the purpose of maximizing gains, in any given trade. I will miss some big runners...witness the USD/JPY long at the beginning of Nov-2016...but I don't care. I am of the opinion that if I take reasonable profits (2xR-3xR) and then move on to the next trade, that there are more opportunities for profit than finding that "once a year" runner and watching other profitable trades dissolve into losses because I thought "this is the big one". While it may seem counter intuitive, my message is, "STOP swinging for the fences!" Go for the base hit, or the short pass, or what ever sports analogy you prefer. Reasonable small gains, with a 55%-60% winning trades will go a LONG way.

I will update my statistics here if anyone wants but when I posted last time, it didn't seem to generate any attention or dialog. But for any who want to see them, I will post them.

That's all for now, talk again soon.

First Trade of the year:
AUD/USD - Long:

I was triggered on this trade on the first day of the year. I had another trade long on last couple of days of 2016 but the open stopped me out at break even. So I re-entered here and with today's higher move I have already brought the stop up to just over break even. This trade is COUNTER trend and I will be vigilant to watch for anything that looks like a reversal so I can take the next leg down.

hi Don , keep up the god job = )

USD/CAD - Short:

Another counter trend trade that I started just a couple of days before the end of the year. I really only expected this trade the move quickly because of the volatility usually present at the end of the year. However, price has stalled since the open of this year, and has provided the chance to move my stop down to lock in 90 pips.

Price here appears rather buoyant, with buyers stepping in at the bottom of a two day range. I suspect these are scalpers that are trading this range, but I now have my stop at the top of this range, to stay profitable and await a new long signal.

Thanks MXT...please feel free to participate as you see fit...I would love to generate any dialog to keep things going.