Attachments: News trading discussion - continuation

News trading discussion - continuation

#3,801
Nov 16, 2016 7:39am Nov 16, 2016 7:39am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,802
Edited Nov 17, 2016 7:39am Nov 16, 2016 7:54am | Edited Nov 17, 2016 7:39am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

Thursday
2:30
11/17/16
AU Number of employed DELAY & CONFLICT
(AU Employment Change), Australia, the AUDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Wake up or not - you decide. Not included in the warranty signals. Always comes with a delay is always a high probability of conflict. The structure of the probability of profit 50/50
However, more, even though some experience of traders, we see a total lack of understanding of what is happening with this report. And the reality is: you get the delay that you always opens in the third third of the candles and get the reaction you can profit only when there is a conflict, or data are supported by adjacent LEDs. If you do not support or even conflict - this loss.
If you analyze the past and see the movement of the reaction by 50 points, I think it is cool, it is understood that the signal you get 40 points, but not on the 10th.

Why is the news from Australia come with a delay

P.P.S headliner AU Employment Change, and AU Unemployment Rate are published 3-4 seconds is a continuation, or the final movement. In addition, the markets assess the structure of the labor market, for example, if the increase was mainly due to the increase in part-time employment - it becomes not interesting, and this is reflected in the quotes.

Thursday
11:30
11/17/16
GB Retail Sales
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thursday
15:30
11/17/16
US Core CPI
(US Core CPI), US, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"
Dollar in a mode evaluation and expectations of the likelihood the Fed raising interest rates on December 14 that very soon. The probability of such an event currently stands at 90% according to the CME Group. Inflation is one of the fundamental factors for the FOMC.
Annual CPI value is currently 1.6%. Core CPI YoY 2.2%. The target range for the FOMC is 2.0%.
Reducing inflation at -0.1% lower than forecast, for example, may slightly affect the market opinion on the monetary policy of the regulator, respectively, it is likely that more than 10-13 points can hardly be seen in this situation.
The increase in inflation above forecast at 0.1% finally convince the market rate increase in December. But this small quantity, which also tolknёt trading pair at 15-20 n.
Much more influential may be deviations from +/- 0.2% - but this is quite rare for this indicator.
11/17/16
17:30
Natural Gas Storage

Thursday
23:45
11/17/16
NZ Retail Sales GOOD
(NZ Retail Sales), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

In view of the devastating earthquake, the exact release date is not yet determined.
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Only 18/11 will be available to the official calendar of New Zealand.
In view of the devastating earthquake, the exact release date is not yet determined.

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,803
Nov 16, 2016 4:36pm Nov 16, 2016 4:36pm

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,804
Nov 16, 2016 10:19pm Nov 16, 2016 10:19pm

Travel63
| Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 72 Posts

#3,805
Nov 17, 2016 1:31am Nov 17, 2016 1:31am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,806
Nov 17, 2016 5:40am Nov 17, 2016 5:40am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,807
Edited Nov 18, 2016 5:37am Nov 17, 2016 7:43am | Edited Nov 18, 2016 5:37am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

Friday
15:30
11/18/16
ca Core CPI
(Ca Core CPI), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the liberation.
25% chance of a deal.

Thoughts of "smart traders"
Only 18/11 will be available to the official calendar of New Zealand.
In view of the devastating earthquake, the exact release date has not been determined.

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,808
Edited 5:54am Nov 18, 2016 5:38am | Edited 5:54am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,809
Nov 18, 2016 5:40am Nov 18, 2016 5:40am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

Great weekend to everyone.

Inserted Video

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,810
Nov 18, 2016 12:16pm Nov 18, 2016 12:16pm

RisingSun
Joined Jun 2007 | Status: trader | 1,703 Posts

Quoting vvFish

Disliked

{image} {image}

Ignored

Great scalping, as always!

#3,811
Nov 18, 2016 12:39pm Nov 18, 2016 12:39pm

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

Quoting RisingSun

Disliked

{quote} Great scalping, as always!

Ignored

thank you my friend

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,812
Nov 18, 2016 10:41pm Nov 18, 2016 10:41pm

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

Thoughts of "smart traders"

FOMC authorized to declare

Fourteen weeks of notes. Fed were wordy and New Zealand postponed their statistics because of the earthquake ...
Bullard (FOMC) supports the increase of the interest rate on 14 December.
Press raises the topic of elections in France, which will take place in April 2017.

Mario Draghi: ECB will extend the incentive program. The ECB will continue to operate with the available tools for him.

Janet Yellen confirmed intentions soon increase interest rates.
The probability of the growth rate in December laid down in price by 90%. It is worth noting that Janet used slovoobrot «relatively soon» in his speech.
Janet Yellen: Fedrez revise their forecasts after the elections in the United States.

The Ministry of Finance Germany: No easy Brexit. Britain could, and probably will pay for the output of up to 2030.

New Zealand, for technical reasons, since the massive earthquake changed the statistics table. The formal methodology failed.

Mester (FOMC): Fedrez little concerned about the US presidential election. The economy is strong, the tightening of monetary policy may be held in more than we expected.

Swiss banks do not like the franc - would intervene, if necessary, but will not reduce the rate.

Lotion in New Zealand adds to the price + 4.5%.

Rosenberg (Fed): "Incentives" by Washington may increase the degree of monetary tightening.

Reserve Bank of Australia released the full "minutes" of the meeting: risks are balanced, inflation returns to normal, China is rather weak.

Damage from the earthquake in New Zealand exceeded 1.5 bln. Dollars.

OPEC again rants frost oil and its limits.

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,813
Nov 18, 2016 10:43pm Nov 18, 2016 10:43pm

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

Tuesday
15:30
11/22/16
CA Core Retail Sales
(CA Core Retail Sales), Canada, USDCAD
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,814
Nov 22, 2016 5:33am Nov 22, 2016 5:33am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...

#3,815
Nov 22, 2016 5:38am Nov 22, 2016 5:38am

vvFish
Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,162 Posts

Wednesday
10:30
11/23/16
EU manufacturing PMI index in Germany
(EU German Flash Manufacturing PMI), the EU, EURUSD
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Wednesday
15:30
11/23/16
US orders index of durable goods
(US Core Durable Goods Orders), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Wednesday
17:30
11/23/16
US reserves of crude oil and petroleum products
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average reaction when trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Wednesday
19:00
11/23/16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...