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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #1,561
  • Nov 16, 2016 10:44pm Nov 16, 2016 10:44pm
Quoting Ajay999
Hello everyone , my midnight analysis on GBPAUD. May be it's a good opportunity for trade. {image} {image} {image}
Hello Ajay999
Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this pair
The 4hr zone is low scoring though, it has been tested a couple of times
It may still work. I prefer to trade fresh levels when i can

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #1,562
  • Nov 16, 2016 11:58pm Nov 16, 2016 11:58pm
Hello everyone.

Thoughts for the day......

We never get what we want, we get what we have to have
........Tony Robbins

Develop the habits, you have the brainpower, you have got the energy but develop the habits of success
....Warren Buffet

As the trading year ends, it is time for change.
Change in mind, change in attitude, change in outlook.

The only way to know if something is strong is to test it
.....AKT

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #1,563
  • Nov 17, 2016 6:51am Nov 17, 2016 6:51am
Hello everyone


A little bit of the psychological processes of trading.

Question:
Who is responsible for the production of the prices of assets that traders around the world view on a daily basis?

I mean who is actually causing the price of any given instrument to move on any given day, week, month or at any given minute or hour?

Is it the orders of the average small retail trader who unfortunately is mostly trading relatively small position sizes compared to say a bank that has pooled funds from all over the world and is applying those funds to the financial instruments?
Clearly not.

I am confident in the fact that the average individual trader is able to reach the level of a bank or institution someday but until that day, he is a spectator of the movements in price caused by institutions trading with and against each other.

I think we often forget this fact.

It is the reason why our thread is called “Trading Institutional Order Flow”.

The institutions are the ones creating the charts we all use. What is disingenuous however is to think that because we are all now seeing the activities of the institutions, we must know how they are trading, when they will place or exit a trade, how much they will put on in terms of position size etc.
That couldn’t be further from the truth.

The only way we can “know” with any degree of certainty what the institutions are doing is after the fact, after they have placed or exited the trade. Now, that is of no use to us In making real time trading decisions.

The next best thing is to anticipate what the institutions are “likely” to do at certain price levels using the probabilities involved in our various trading strategies.
As Mark Douglas said in his classic book, paraphrasing now, “to the degree to which we know or think we know what the market is going to do a day from now, an hour from now or even a minute from now, is the degree to which we are likely to suffer emotional pain when the markets do not do what we expect”

We never know.

So when your next trade is stopped out and you feel angry, sad, annoyed, frustrated or despondent, please understand, you feel this way because you “expected” the market to do one thing and it did another. You did not leave yourself open to the endless possibilities in the way the markets could express themselves, including the real possibility of you being stopped out.

Therefore, I say this, to myself and all of us on T.I.O.F, the day you smile at being stopped out, the day you are glad about being stopped out, the day you feel no emotional pain at being stopped out, is the day you know you have mastered the mindset required for trading success.

Until then, the journey continues…….

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #1,564
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:05am Nov 17, 2016 7:05am
Quoting Akt
Hello everyone A little bit of the psychological processes of trading. Question: Who is responsible for the production of the prices of assets that traders around the world view on a daily basis? I mean who is actually causing the price of any given instrument to move on any given day, week, month or at any given minute or hour? Is it the orders of the average small retail trader who unfortunately is mostly trading relatively small position sizes compared to say a bank that has pooled funds from all over the world and is applying those funds to...

Market Makers are the big boys in the industry controlling large sums of money on a daily basis as well as market liquidity. Market makers are referred to as "smart money".
Smart money are:

- Big Banks
- Hedge Funds
- Institutions

These firms/businesses employ and consists of the brightest financial minds in world, managing large sums of money. Due to the massive amounts of funds they control, they run into one major problem- liquidity. The demand in liquidity is the whole reason manipulation exists. Without liquidity smart money will spike the market up or down, giving away their directional movement.
  • #1,565
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:08am Nov 17, 2016 7:08am
Hey All,

I've been trading for many years, put a lot of weight in S/R but have recently been doing some research on S.a.D. I'm only about 8 pages in but this seems like a great source so I had a couple of questions.

Where are the "rules" that are referred to? Typically at the beginning of a new thread, or at least the first few pages, but haven't seen anything as of yet. I've picked up bits and pieces, i.e. a level needs to be "fresh", use 3 time frames etc. but haven't seen a clear plan laid out.

Are these "rules", or what I've read so far standard S.a.D. theory or have these been tweaked by AKT?

I've seen a reference to a YouTube channel as well, am I able to get the link for this?

Much appreciated!
  • #1,566
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:24am Nov 17, 2016 7:24am
Quoting swTrue
Hey All, I've been trading for many years, put a lot of weight in S/R but have recently been doing some research on S.a.D. I'm only about 8 pages in but this seems like a great source so I had a couple of questions. Where are the "rules" that are referred to? Typically at the beginning of a new thread, or at least the first few pages, but haven't seen anything as of yet. I've picked up bits and pieces, i.e. a level needs to be "fresh", use 3 time frames etc. but haven't seen a clear plan laid out. Are these "rules", or what I've read so far standard...
If you read the thread you will discover the rules. It is worth it. Take your time to study all the information in here.
This is the youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBf...ZS7J4oOx3hHl3g

Best wishes
  • #1,567
  • Nov 17, 2016 8:49am Nov 17, 2016 8:49am
Quoting Pipsalon
{quote} If you read the thread you will discover the rules. It is worth it. Take your time to study all the information in here. This is the youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBf...ZS7J4oOx3hHl3g Best wishes
Thanks Pipsalon! I'll check the channel out.

Typically if rules are referenced later in a thread it's due to being given prior. 8 pages in rules are being referenced that aren't given, so it makes me think there some antecedent to this thread.
  • #1,568
  • Nov 17, 2016 8:58am Nov 17, 2016 8:58am
Quoting swTrue
{quote} Thanks Pipsalon! I'll check the channel out. Typically if rules are referenced later in a thread it's due to being given prior. 8 pages in rules are being referenced that aren't given, so it makes me think there some antecedent to this thread.
Hello swTrue. Good to meet you. Welcome to T.I.O.F

The rules are embedded in the chart examples and some of the commentary
The you-tube channel is the visual + commentary complimenting the thread.
We try not to be typical on T.I.O.F .
Stay a while, chat and interact with us.

Welcome again

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #1,569
  • Nov 17, 2016 10:15am Nov 17, 2016 10:15am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello swTrue. Good to meet you. Welcome to T.I.O.F The rules are embedded in the chart examples and some of the commentary The you-tube channel is the visual + commentary complimenting the thread. We try not to be typical on T.I.O.F . Stay a while, chat and interact with us. Welcome again best wishes
Appreciate it AKT! I'll keep chugging along! I guess the "typical" trader is the retail trader losing money so maybe not being typical is the right way to go!
  • #1,570
  • Nov 17, 2016 11:18am Nov 17, 2016 11:18am
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  • #1,571
  • Nov 17, 2016 2:49pm Nov 17, 2016 2:49pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{image}{image}
Hi Technalyst, in my opinion - monthly demand was several times tested, much better looks demand a both...enter trade requires confirmation.
  • #1,572
  • Nov 17, 2016 3:30pm Nov 17, 2016 3:30pm
Quoting Michele86
{quote} Hi Technalyst, in my opinion - monthly demand was several times tested, much better looks demand a both...enter trade requires confirmation.
True, the first demand zone has been tested twice now third time. We will see which way will it go. If it goes further down, it will go to the second demand level where it is marked around 0.99077 and further down. If it bounces back from the first demand zone which is around 1.06260 it's going up.
  • #1,573
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:15pm Nov 17, 2016 7:15pm
Wanted to throw a couple charts up to make sure I'm on the right track. Guess this would be the top down analysis. It looks like EURUSD is coming into a "nice" DZ, WK overlapping Daily overlapping 4HR, all fresh. Based on what I've read so far we would be waiting for confirmation of some sorts...
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  • #1,574
  • Nov 17, 2016 7:17pm Nov 17, 2016 7:17pm
Also, when big news comes out, such as elections, and throws large wicks, do you just work them in like I did? Or do you ignore them as they weren't created under normal market conditions.
  • #1,575
  • Nov 17, 2016 9:11pm Nov 17, 2016 9:11pm
Quoting swTrue
Wanted to throw a couple charts up to make sure I'm on the right track. Guess this would be the top down analysis. It looks like EURUSD is coming into a "nice" DZ, WK overlapping Daily overlapping 4HR, all fresh. Based on what I've read so far we would be waiting for confirmation of some sorts... {image} {image} {image}
Hello swTrue
If I may, here are my thoughts on the EURUSD.
I see a few members talking about going long at this zone.

best wishes
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Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #1,576
  • Edited 10:16pm Nov 17, 2016 9:15pm | Edited 10:16pm
Quoting swTrue
Also, when big news comes out, such as elections, and throws large wicks, do you just work them in like I did? Or do you ignore them as they weren't created under normal market conditions.
Hello swTrue
Those wicks as you know, are actual human beings, traders, expressing their view of the future movement of price by engaging in buying and selling at the highs of those wicks
Often, the wicks are pullbacks into supply or demand zones where we want to do business.
The methodology does not consider any movement in price as abnormal so to speak because of the fact that it is traders taking price up or down in those wicks
Therefore the methodology takes account of all the information the chart provides in terms of price movement

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #1,577
  • Nov 18, 2016 8:54am Nov 18, 2016 8:54am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello swTrue If I may, here are my thoughts on the EURUSD. I see a few members talking about going long at this zone. best wishes{image}
Well this is my first post here but I have read and made 3 trades, first one, bad trade only loose 5 pips as i close it soon, next 2 trades where good one of 12 pips, would be of 36 pips if i let it run but as the second one i close them sooner as i get confident with this analysis, second one was about 120 pips !! but if i let it run till the next Zone would have been of 230 pips , second trade was GBPNZD

About EURUSD, I'm looking just for shorts not longs for now so in the 4HR I'm looking for this Zones (look pic) for it



PD. thanks for sharing and explaining this Akt
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  • #1,578
  • Nov 18, 2016 11:23am Nov 18, 2016 11:23am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello swTrue If I may, here are my thoughts on the EURUSD. I see a few members talking about going long at this zone. best wishes{image}
Thanks AKT! I'm about 20 pages through the thread and haven't seen anything about addressing the "wickiness" of one candle. I've seen bases with multiple candles with large wicks addressed as a weak base, but not just the one candle. Would you not say that the departing from this level somewhat offsets the wick? It seems to be a great depart, really nothing else like it around...
  • #1,579
  • Nov 18, 2016 11:27am Nov 18, 2016 11:27am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello swTrue Those wicks as you know, are actual human beings, traders, expressing their view of the future movement of price by engaging in buying and selling at the highs of those wicks Often, the wicks are pullbacks into supply or demand zones where we want to do business. The methodology does not consider any movement in price as abnormal so to speak because of the fact that it is traders taking price up or down in those wicks Therefore the methodology takes account of all the information the chart provides in terms of price movement...
I've always been a big believer in SUP/RES, not paying attention to fundies, believing the market has already worked the fundamental effects into the market, so I guess the same would apply with SAD. But a move that big seems to really push the bounds...I guess if you're going to believe it, you need to believe it all the way!
  • #1,580
  • Nov 18, 2016 11:47am Nov 18, 2016 11:47am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello swTrue If I may, here are my thoughts on the EURUSD. I see a few members talking about going long at this zone. best wishes{image}
Would you consider this reasonable confirmation or would you be looking for more...?
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