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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #6,241
  • Oct 21, 2016 9:15am Oct 21, 2016 9:15am
AUDUSD, its been easy to trade if you use to trade range/irregular market conditions. Its been challenging for me because I start with a long/short bias if that doesnt work switch to range/irregular. Anyways, I think the key levels are R at .7730 and S at .7530 and .7460. The S at 7530 confluences with a rising trend line. So a break below that might open up a move lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDusDaily21.png Size: 37 KB
  • #6,242
  • Oct 25, 2016 8:42am Oct 25, 2016 8:42am
GPBUSD, holding short position and not changing the bias without a good technical reason.
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  • #6,243
  • Oct 25, 2016 8:50am Oct 25, 2016 8:50am
AUDUSD, going short with a SL above .7675, targeting below .75


PS, it may be premature to go short given my analysis above, but I’m doing it based on my EW analysis with a reasonable RRR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDusH125.png Size: 40 KB
  • #6,244
  • Oct 25, 2016 10:07am Oct 25, 2016 10:07am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, going short with a SL above .7675, targeting below .75 PS, it may be premature to go short given my analysis above, but I’m doing it based on my EW analysis with a reasonable RRR. {image}
I am also short from the other day. We will see.
  • #6,245
  • Oct 25, 2016 10:34am Oct 25, 2016 10:34am
Quoting calderone
{quote} I am also short from the other day. We will see.
Hey old friend, great to see you here!
I am adding more at .7650, but I will be out above 0.7675.
  • #6,246
  • Oct 25, 2016 11:45am Oct 25, 2016 11:45am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Hey old friend, great to see you here! I am adding more at .7650, but I will be out above 0.7675.
I have my stop a bit higher based on the weekly. I may add as well.
  • #6,247
  • Oct 26, 2016 7:28am Oct 26, 2016 7:28am
Quoting calderone
{quote} I am also short from the other day. We will see.
Well the news didn't help me out. lol I am still in this one as my stops are above 7740.....fun
  • #6,248
  • Edited 9:28am Oct 26, 2016 9:05am | Edited 9:28am
Quoting calderone
{quote} Well the news didn't help me out. lol I am still in this one as my stops are above 7740.....fun
You are good to go now. I stopped out of this trade.

BTW, I’ve just realized that Morgan Stanley was running a limit order at 0.7670 with a SL at 0.7750, targeting 0.65. I should have known better.
  • #6,249
  • Oct 26, 2016 9:07am Oct 26, 2016 9:07am
EURUSD, short opportunity at S turned R.
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  • #6,250
  • Oct 26, 2016 10:16am Oct 26, 2016 10:16am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, short opportunity at S turned R. {image}
Your kind of trade.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #6,251
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:41pm Oct 26, 2016 1:41pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} You are good to go now. I stopped out of this trade. BTW, I’ve just realized that Morgan Stanley was running a limit order at 0.7670 with a SL at 0.7750, targeting 0.65. I should have known better.
My stops are at 7740 and 7750. I always run big stops.....lately anyway.
  • #6,252
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:48pm Oct 26, 2016 1:48pm
I will also be watching the daily close on audnzd.
  • #6,253
  • Nov 8, 2016 8:07am Nov 8, 2016 8:07am
I took a EURUSD short trade on S turned R at 1.112
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,254
  • Nov 8, 2016 8:15am Nov 8, 2016 8:15am
AUDUSD, the uptrend TL has been respected on multiple occasions now. From RRR point of view a short trade with a hard stop above .7750 looks attractive, but a break of the rising TL needs to confirm a trend change otherwise it's uptrend on the daily chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDusDaily118.png Size: 39 KB
  • #6,255
  • Nov 11, 2016 10:05am Nov 11, 2016 10:05am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, the uptrend TL has been respected on multiple occasions now. From RRR point of view a short trade with a hard stop above .7750 looks attractive, but a break of the rising TL needs to confirm a trend change otherwise it's uptrend on the daily chart. {image}
Watch the weekly close. Last time it engulfed we had a 500 pip drop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-w1-oanda-division1.png Size: 51 KB
  • #6,256
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:10am Nov 14, 2016 6:10am
Quoting calderone
{quote} Watch the weekly close. Last time it engulfed we had a 500 pip drop. {image}
Yea, I agree. I went short after the election day. The uptrend TL is broken. Next Support is 0.7450. Below that will cause some major SLs to be triggered.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDusDaily1114.png Size: 77 KB
  • #6,257
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:17am Nov 14, 2016 6:17am
GBPUSD, taking a short trade just right now. SL above 1.2615, targeting 1.230-226
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  • #6,258
  • Nov 14, 2016 6:23am Nov 14, 2016 6:23am
I am looking for an opportunity to go long USDJPY again. The downtrend channel is broken, more upside expected.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYusDaily1114.png Size: 53 KB
  • #6,259
  • Nov 14, 2016 7:09am Nov 14, 2016 7:09am
I'm short audcad based on the weekly. I will be setting sell orders on the audusd and nzdusd based on the weekly.
  • #6,260
  • Nov 15, 2016 5:50am Nov 15, 2016 5:50am
Quoting calderone
I'm short audcad based on the weekly. I will be setting sell orders on the audusd and nzdusd based on the weekly.
Good call. AUDCAD weekly chart looks promising.
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