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As simple as possible: 00 level trading

  • #34,521
  • Oct 16, 2016 11:58pm Oct 16, 2016 11:58pm
lol. Right.

LuXing
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  • #34,522
  • Oct 17, 2016 1:09am Oct 17, 2016 1:09am
Quoting ericjschroed
{quote} Hi, buddy. Did you see my email? I can't find your previous email or post about the increasing currency strength. You said something about having it increase for past bars. Do you require multiple TFs or just the one you are trading, like M15? How many TF bars need to increase? 2, 3, 4? How much should it increase? 0.1, 0.2, 1.0? Please explain in as much detail as you can, thanks! I am still working on the Dash, of course. Still hoping to get it to autotrade successfully.
Hey Eric,

I think you are referring to this post.
As such, I don´t require multiple TFs to line up. For example, M15 is way too noisy IMHO.
What is of my interest though, is what a currency "has been doing" during the last couple of hours.
Sooner or later currencies will revert to the mean so if for example AUD has been very strong for 8 consecutive hours, probabilities that it will revert are higher.
If you are interested in incorporating criteria whereby you require base/quote currency to weaken/strengthen, you should have a look here for inspiration.

In as much detail as I can: since a couple of months I have incorporated only 2 elements.
1 element, after extensive screen time, as "sine qua non" entry condition.
For long, I want the base currency strength (the one displayed in Giraia) to get stronger and quote currency "strength" to get weaker. Vice versa for shorts.
I measure this on a never ending "floating" H1 candle. Very basic, rather efficient for me.

The second element is trade management.
Risk to reward ratio of this type of system is terrible, so hit rate needs to be >85-90%.
Every now and then, one of my trades misses TP by only 1 or 2 pipettes, usually due to spread widening.
Of course, it "always" happens when I am not constantly monitoring the trade.
To soften this blow, I have starting using a trailstop, but not the typical break even and trail stuff.
For every pip the price travels in the intended direction, my stoploss level will move with it.
Hypothesis: short at .500 level, TP of 7.5 pips, SL of 17 pips. Price moves all the way to 420 but TP has still not been hit.
My initial stoploss at .670 will, by that time, be situated at .590. That way, should price decide to turn around I get out with -9 pips instead of -17 pips.
Of course a trade needs breathing room, but in my experience it rarely happens that price goes 7 pips in your favor, goes back all the way to -15 pips to eventually come back and hit your TP level.

Getting your, or any dashboard for that matter, to autotrade is not that difficult.
Getting it to autotrade with consistent positive results (I am talking a sample size of 500+ trades on a live account) is a whole different story.
Especially positive results with a decent expectancy.
There are tons of people who have invested shitloads of time and programming resources in this.
In the end, what good is it, if in full auto mode, after allowing for commission and spread, it yields 1.5 pip per day ?
I think a dashboard can be of great help to pick pairs, send audio alarms, etc. but I still have to see hard proof of a dash that produces a consistent hitrate, decent expectancy and that is black swan proof...
Until then, semi automated trading will do for me.

Hope this helps in your (and others) reflections.

LuXing
Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,523
  • Oct 17, 2016 1:42am Oct 17, 2016 1:42am
Quoting LuXing
{quote} Hey Eric, I think you are referring to this post. As such, I dont require multiple TFs to line up. For example, M15 is way too noisy IMHO. What is of my interest though, is what a currency "has been doing" during the last couple of hours. Sooner or later currencies will revert to the mean so if for example AUD has been very strong for 8 consecutive hours, probabilities that it will revert are higher. If you are interested in incorporating criteria whereby you require...

I can't agree more , there is no such Set and Forget EA, can you build an EA to take "Safer pick's" with lower risk while you're not at PC to try to grab some profit, of course but it come in a different risk then semi automatic trading.

Any dashboard , excel etc. is just helping you to make math's that you can't do with human brain in real time, the KEY decision of the system remains the persons behind it, you have to drive the car...

Of course this in case you're not in high velocity arbitrage trading business....
By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.
  • #34,524
  • Oct 17, 2016 4:03am Oct 17, 2016 4:03am
Quoting LuXing
{quote} In as much detail as I can: since a couple of months I have incorporated only 2 elements. 1 element, after extensive screen time, as "sine qua non" entry condition. For long, I want the base currency strength (the one displayed in Giraia) to get stronger and quote currency "strength" to get weaker. Vice versa for shorts. I measure this on a never ending "floating" H1 candle. Very basic, rather efficient for me. The second element is trade management. LuXing
What to say ? Just another post to be framed !!

Thank you and best regards,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,525
  • Oct 17, 2016 3:12pm Oct 17, 2016 3:12pm
hey guys , i read the tread, but maybe i miss something about the rules, i will try to explain and if what correct me

we start at LO and NY - EJ / GJ

lets say if we have 2 red candles as in rules h1 d1
everything what we need is just a retracement from 00 levels ? and we go for 5 pips .

lets say if we have downtrend then we make buy limit from 00 levels , is it correct ?

uptrend , we make sell limit from 00 levels and go for 5 pips ?
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  • #34,526
  • Oct 17, 2016 4:58pm Oct 17, 2016 4:58pm
Quoting LuXing
{quote} Hey Eric, I think you are referring to this post.
Thanks for answering; now I have 20 more questions! In the post you mention the last 8 hours. Is that static, meaning, the beginning of each hour, or end of the hour? And what does the last 8 hours tell you? How are these numbers useful?

Point 2: Is the "floating" precisely 240 minutes before now, or the current (or previous) H4 bar Open (or Close)? And I think you mentioned that the numbers were the current CS and the arrows were comparing to the prior bar (240/60/15), right? Does it need to increase by more than 0.1? I would think you would prefer a noticeable increase, not just a 1/10th. Also, do you require a certain distance between the currencies, like >3.5 (6.0 and 2.5) or more?

Quote
{quote}As such, I dont require multiple TFs to line up. For example, M15 is way too noisy IMHO. What is of my interest though, is what a currency "has been doing" during the last couple of hours. Sooner or later currencies will revert to the mean so if for example AUD has been very strong for 8 consecutive hours, probabilities that it will revert are higher.
Will consider that.

Quote
If you are interested in incorporating criteria whereby you require base/quote currency to weaken/strengthen, you should have a look here for inspiration.
Yes, momentum is the key. More to study!

Quote
In as much detail as I can: since a couple of months I have incorporated only 2 elements. 1 element, after extensive screen time, as "sine qua non" entry condition. For long, I want the base currency strength (the one displayed in Giraia) to get stronger and quote currency "strength" to get weaker. Vice versa for shorts. I measure this on a never ending "floating" H1 candle. Very basic, rather efficient for me.
Same question as above, the "floating" H1 candle is precisely 60 minutes before or the price now compared to the Open of the current H1?

Quote
The second element is trade management. Risk to reward ratio of this type of system is terrible, so hit rate needs to be >85-90%. Every now and then, one of my trades misses TP by only 1 or 2 pipettes, usually due to spread widening. Of course, it "always" happens when I am not constantly monitoring the trade. To soften this blow, I have starting using a trailstop, but not the typical break even and trail stuff. For every pip the price travels in the intended direction, my stoploss level will move with it. Hypothesis: short at .500 level, TP of...
Yes I have used the same idea for TS at times. How is it working for you in real trading? That does eliminate the possibility of a BE trade.

Quote
Getting your, or any dashboard for that matter, to autotrade is not that difficult. Getting it to autotrade with consistent positive results (I am talking a sample size of 500+ trades on a live account) is a whole different story. Especially positive results with a decent expectancy. There are tons of people who have invested shitloads of time and programming resources in this. In the end, what good is it, if in full auto mode, after allowing for commission and spread, it yields 1.5...
Do you still use ASH and HA as well? The problem with my dashboard is possibly too many (conflicting) criteria which either will produce excellent signals if combined correctly, or none at all.

Yes, I just wish I could trade the best hours but I can't right now, so I spend time trying to perfect the Dashboard. It does autotrade already; just working on the "consistently profitable" part. When it is successful, you will be the first to hear! Today I got 2 BE trades! Woohoo!

P.S. commission and spread are already considered in my trade manager. And if any successful trader would like to help me make the dashboard auto-successful, they can have a free copy of it. Just email me.
  • #34,527
  • Oct 17, 2016 5:00pm Oct 17, 2016 5:00pm
Quoting cikurakum
hey guys , i read the tread, but maybe i miss something about the rules, i will try to explain and if what correct me we start at LO and NY - EJ / GJ lets say if we have 2 red candles as in rules h1 d1 everything what we need is just a retracement from 00 levels ? and we go for 5 pips . lets say if we have downtrend then we make buy limit from 00 levels , is it correct ? uptrend , we make sell limit from 00 levels and go for 5 pips ? {image}
No, this is not a reversal system. You want to catch the move, so Buy Stop (or Market sometimes) in uptrend and opposite in downtrend.
  • #34,528
  • Oct 17, 2016 11:50pm Oct 17, 2016 11:50pm
Hi Everyone,
I'm hoping to be able to trade a lot more from now on.
Still figuring out how I want to trade the method and how to find the best entries.
I like to wait for a re-test of the level (after a 5 pips+ pullback) before entering.
From what I've seen, I can get away with a slightly smaller SL and higher TP when entering on a re-test (with the lower spread pairs).
Thankyou to the regular contributors to the thread.
Your posts and words of wisdom are very helpful.
Any comments most welcome.

EURJPY TP (M5 Chart)

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  • #34,529
  • Oct 18, 2016 12:13am Oct 18, 2016 12:13am
First trade for a while on 00 levels, I was originally targetting 80.00 but felt it could be quite the barrier and chickened out at 97.975 for +7 pips. Have a feeling it could roar past 80 if some momentum picks up but took the safe money.

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flipfloptrader forum
  • #34,530
  • Oct 18, 2016 5:45am Oct 18, 2016 5:45am
Quoting LuXing
{quote} good ! Same here, +GBPCHF too. Bear in mind that GBP pairs are extremely unpredictable for the moment and not necessarily the safest choice. JPY flows have been great for last weeks trading. LuXing {image}
Hi LuXing,

is it possible to get your template and your level indicator? YOur chart looks really clean, I like this. With the sweet spot indicator here in forum its not possible to make this such clean.

Thank you
  • #34,531
  • Oct 18, 2016 1:02pm Oct 18, 2016 1:02pm
Quoting kleybenny
{quote} Hi LuXing, is it possible to get your template and your level indicator? YOur chart looks really clean, I like this. With the sweet spot indicator here in forum its not possible to make this such clean. Thank you
Aah, sorry, now I found it. After reading 50 pages backwards
  • #34,532
  • Oct 18, 2016 3:32pm Oct 18, 2016 3:32pm
Quoting ericjschroed
{quote} Thanks for answering; now I have 20 more questions! In the post you mention the last 8 hours. Is that static, meaning, the beginning of each hour, or end of the hour? And what does the last 8 hours tell you? How are these numbers useful? Point 2: Is the "floating" precisely 240 minutes before now, or the current (or previous) H4 bar Open (or Close)? And I think you mentioned that the numbers were the current CS and the arrows were comparing to the prior bar (240/60/15), right? Does it need to increase by more than 0.1? I would think you...
In the post you mention the last 8 hours. Is that static, meaning, the beginning of each hour, or end of the hour?
Take whatever is convenient for you: static, floating, begin of hour, end of hour currency strength.
I am merely pointing out that probabilities of mean reversion increase when currency X has been extremely weak/strong over extended periods of time. There are no answers that will harness your questions. Simply too many factors involved.
News, no news coming up. Draghi, Yellen, ... ? Beginning of session, end of session, next session about to open, ... ?

Does it need to increase by more than 0.1? I would think you would prefer a noticeable increase, not just a 1/10th.
I don' t care. Base >0 & quote < 0 for long is good enough for me. The more the better. If you want to take it further and make an algo out of this, I have given you the link to the forum.

Same question as above, the "floating" H1 candle is precisely 60 minutes before or the price now compared to the Open of the current H1?
Yes, precisely n - 60 minutes or minus 59 minutes.
The open of the current H1 candle = static. Theres no such things as TFs anyway.
There' s only price and ticks. Price is price regardless of M1, M5, M15, M whatever.
Trust me, the market doesn' t give a flying fuck about Metatrader timeframes.
If any, I' d rather rely on a 150/300 tick candle, which is the standard for many institutional traders.

How is it working for you in real trading?
Not much use in bringing things to the table that do not work in real life.

The problem with my dashboard is possibly too many (conflicting) criteria which either will produce excellent signals if combined correctly, or none at all.
Deja vu. See the picture below. Think first, program after. In a 24 hr cycle a properly designed dashboard for this system using the right algos should produce anywhere between 10 and 25 signals, of which 86% are straight TPs without any human intervention.

And if any successful trader would like to help me make the dashboard auto-successful
Nobody can, not even me. Its a Fata Morgana.

Quoting kleybenny
{quote} Hi LuXing, is it possible to get your template and your level indicator? YOur chart looks really clean, I like this. With the sweet spot indicator here in forum its not possible to make this such clean. Thank you
Template: nope
Level indicator: sorry mate. I did once, but look what happened
Sweetspot: yes its possible. Just play with the settings display lines above/below etc. etc.

LuXing
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  • #34,533
  • Oct 19, 2016 1:10am Oct 19, 2016 1:10am
Today after having missed some quick moves at FFO to take short GBPJPY and GBPCHF I took this trade.
At the moment there not much vola, many red news to come.

#1 CADJPY to TP

Best regards,
Bubincka
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  • #34,534
  • Oct 19, 2016 3:36am Oct 19, 2016 3:36am
Quoting bubincka
Today after having missed some quick moves at FFO to take short GBPJPY and GBPCHF I took this trade. At the moment there not much vola, many red news to come. #1 CADJPY to TP Best regards, Bubincka {image} {image}
Nice one !
On the Giraia currency strength meter, CAD weakest and JPY strongest at London session open.
5 minutes wait to see where the market goes, daily support break and a clean take profit.
NZDJPY was eligible too for me for entry at the 500 level. It would have been good for 6 pips.

In attach an indi some might find useful for quick chart flipping.
All symbols visible in your platform market watch will be shown.

LuXing
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Symbol Changer_Luxmod.ex4   14 KB | 512 downloads
File Type: mq4 Symbol Changer_Luxmod.mq4   6 KB | 668 downloads
Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,535
  • Oct 19, 2016 8:58am Oct 19, 2016 8:58am
Pretty much everything about this strategy/method itself has been said, but there´s 1 thing that has not been spoken about very much.

After a lengthy phone call I received from a fellow trader friend last weekend, I think it´s worth mentioning.
IMHO this is a very important one: on the subject of risk.
This is something that only works on live accounts, so not very useful for “demo kings”.

Let´s make a riddle of it and see if someone figures this out.
If anybody takes a stab at it and posts his/her thoughts, I´ll post the answer tomorrow.

I have a live account with a balance of, give and take, EUR 5K.
My standard stoploss size in pips is 17.
My capital at risk per trade is 2% (for a good trade) to 3.5% (for an excellent trade).
My lot size, once I pull the trigger and fire a trade is anywhere between roughly 3 and 5 standard lots.

Does anybody understand:

1. What I am doing ?
2. Why I am doing this ?
3. Why it would never work on demo ?

LuXing
Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,536
  • Oct 19, 2016 12:58pm Oct 19, 2016 12:58pm
Quoting LuXing
Pretty much everything about this strategy/method itself has been said, but theres 1 thing that has not been spoken about very much. After a lengthy phone call I received from a fellow trader friend last weekend, I think its worth mentioning. IMHO this is a very important one: on the subject of risk. This is something that only works on live accounts, so not very useful for demo kings. Lets make a riddle of it and see if someone figures this out. If anybody takes a stab at it and posts his/her thoughts, Ill post the answer tomorrow. I have a live...
I try it

Maybe so you minimize your potential risk. And that brings you confident? So let's say you have a perfect setup, you risking 3,5 % and you are confident because you having not only a setup per rule, but a perfect... So you are confident enough to let the trade run. The possibility is higher to win because perfect setup. So the odds are in your favor. If the trade is only good, you take for example 2% and are still confident and don't feel fear because you have lower risk.... I think that's the point isn't it? In demo it's not possible, because it doesn't matter if you lose.....
  • #34,537
  • Oct 19, 2016 5:24pm Oct 19, 2016 5:24pm
Hello Udine. I have been reading this tread for a long time. Thank you. Hope you are with good health. All the best wishes from. Oddbj.
All the best to all of you. But don't follow me. I am a learner.
  • #34,538
  • Oct 20, 2016 3:47am Oct 20, 2016 3:47am
Quoting LuXing
Pretty much everything about this strategy/method itself has been said, but theres 1 thing that has not been spoken about very much. After a lengthy phone call I received from a fellow trader friend last weekend, I think its worth mentioning. IMHO this is a very important one: on the subject of risk. This is something that only works on live accounts, so not very useful for demo kings. Lets make a riddle of it and see if someone figures this out. If anybody takes a stab at it and posts his/her thoughts, Ill post the answer tomorrow. I have a live...

You've sized completely incorrectly for a starter. 2% of 5k is 100. 100 divided by a stop of 17 pips is just over 5.5. 3 standard lots is $30 a pip. Let's say the trade loses, you've lost $510, a lot more than 2% or even 3.5%.
flipfloptrader forum
  • #34,539
  • Oct 20, 2016 4:07am Oct 20, 2016 4:07am
Quoting FlipFlopGC
{quote} You've sized completely incorrectly for a starter. 2% of 5k is 100. 100 divided by a stop of 17 pips is just over 5.5. 3 standard lots is $30 a pip. Let's say the trade loses, you've lost $510, a lot more than 2% or even 3.5%.


What I am doing ?
A.
I am optimizing the use of effective leverage and if necessary, maxing out on leverage.

To calculate the margin requirement to open a trade, the following formula applies;
(Market price * Volume) / Leverage = Margin in EUR required by my broker.

If I pull the trigger and open 5 lots short (=500.000 units of base currency) EURUSD at the current market price of 1.09600 at maxed out leverage level of 1:500.
(1.09600 * 500.000) / 500 = 1096 EUR.
No problem: my banker says I need 1096 EUR in my trading account to open this 5 lot short, my account equity is EUR 5K.
Should my stoploss hit, (5 lots x 17 pips x roughly 9 EUR per pip value) = 765 EUR, I still have more than enough equity left to support possible drawdown on other open trades, if any.
So, I only need 1096 EUR of free margin at 1:500 leverage to open this EURUSD 5 lot short.
BTW, if I was screwed for leverage, like many US citizens, and had 1:50 leverage max. (or maybe no leverage at all) I would need tenfold the free margin (EUR 10960 EUR) instead of just 1096 EUR to open this trade !

What I am doing ?
B.
A 5 lot trade using a 17 pip stoploss on a EUR 5K account balance actually represents a cash risk of the account balance of 15% (!!!). If stoploss is hit it means 15% of the account balance is gone and that seems a bit high, right ?
I systematically keep the balance amount of my trading account low by skimming profits and I do this on purpose. My lot sizing always reflects the total size of the trading capital of EUR 30K I allocated to this particular broker.

I trust my business partner(s) as far as I can throw them. Therefore, my business partners (various brokers) only “see and have access to” part of this total capital I have allocated to each and every one of them in the live trading account. The lowest possible percentage (only 15%-20%) is physically sitting in the trading account, I am flipping and spinning the other 80%-85% around in ways my brokers cannot get to it. Think bank accounts, e-wallets, (pre-paid) credit cards, Paypal, etc. etc. More funds required in a trading account ? It´s there instantly at zero cost if I press the button.

2 Why I am doing this ?
Well, because I can. They let me.
Which brings us to the subject of the lengthy phone call.
My friend gets “a signal”, opens long trades on GBPUSD and GBPJPY about 15 minutes before Tokyo opened, sets TP and SL, goes to make himself a coffee.
5 minutes later, a loss of about EUR 30000 and his account balance is negative !
Based on his stoploss levels, his balance should have been largely in the positive…
Speaking of being robbed.
The media baptized it as the GBP flash crash.
Friend receives mail and requests my assistance, bit of a language barrier between him and his broker. My first thought when I read the mail: djeez.


Dear {Friend},

Unfortunately negative balances are not guaranteed and repaid by {Brokername} as per sections 14.6 and 14.6.1 of the PDS. {Brokername} does employ an automated stop out system at 20% margin however if there are gaps in pricing like then, your margin percentage can drop from 20% to below 0% within milliseconds.

{Brokername} offering to compensate 40% of the negative balance is an extremely generous offer and one that we hope you will take up to avoid this issue dragging further. We are also happy to set up a payment plan should you need more time than 2016 to fund the total 9753.24 EUR required to bring the balance back to 0.

The negative balance compensation offer is to the end of 2016 which we believe is a long period for your circumstances to change and to make contributions to the negative balance left in the account.

Please let us know if you are accepting or rejecting the offer / the payment plan option.

Regards,
{Brokername} Admin

Don’t bother asking what broker this is, most brokers will act the same way in these circumstances anyway. Besides the EUR 30K for one broker, I have allocated another EUR 15K capital to the very same broker as my friend’s and I assure you my vetting criteria are strict.

Long story short:
Black swan events have occurred (unpegging the CHF), do occur (GBP flash crash last week) and will occur in the future.
Although I dodged both the CHF and the GBP bullet I have learned something very important the moment I saw the CHF debacle unfold in real-time on my charts.
If I leave the full 100% capital I allocate to each of my brokers in the trading accounts at the mercy of a broker server’ s repetitive [OFF QUOTE], 2%-3.5% capital at risk in thin liquidity, with big money algos in overdrive, at non-respected stoploss levels it will cost dearly.
Very dearly. Just like it cost {Friend} dearly.
If you are in a luxury position to have leverage at your disposal and you know what you are doing, it can be used intelligently to avoid rather unpleasant surprises.

3. Why it would never work on demo ?
All of this would of course never work on demo.
There is no such thing as thin liquidity, spread widening, off quotes, etc. on demo.
That´s why “demo kings” have far less handicaps and far more glorious Take Profits.
Last time I tried to transfer EUR 3200 of demo profit money to a Skrill e-Wallet it didn’t even work. Go figure.
I won’t be around much more on this forum because pretty much everything has been covered now, black swan events included.

Trade safely, be creative in your risk approach and make sure you don’t get stung by your banker(s) in case of unforeseeable events.


LuXing


Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,540
  • Edited 8:30am Oct 20, 2016 8:17am | Edited 8:30am
Hi LuXing,

I hadn't much time today so I couldn't eve try to solve your riddle!
Anyway while busy in some other errands I'm giving it some thought and I'm already lost at the start.
I use the following formula to calculate the # of lots to trade:

Lots = (Equity * Risk) / (ContractSize * StopLoss)

and substituting values provided by you, I'm getting standard lots ranging from 0.6 to 1.1
Maybe I'm doing something wrong, maybe the difference is due to different ContractSize, I use MODE_LOTSIZE = 100000.

EDIT: error found i was dividing by 170.

I'll take time to read calmly your explanation, there is always a lot to learn from you.

Best regards,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
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