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  • #2,341
  • Sep 2, 2016 6:23am Sep 2, 2016 6:23am
Inserted Video
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,342
  • Sep 2, 2016 7:30am Sep 2, 2016 7:30am
Nice progress and as like I expected strong upward on USD/JPY
Current + 90 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,343
  • Sep 3, 2016 3:31am Sep 3, 2016 3:31am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Webinar was great and I hope you enjoyed. You can watch whole webinar > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCRI8gUgM8w Feel free to comment if you like analysis ... Petar
market makers can do irrational things, delay price movement regardless of fundamental, trade it in advance since they know all data , have speeches ...etc...Retail trader has nothing of it, cannot control price cannot control timing based on fundamental....so over all is guessing with high probability...trader's job is to look chart and try to follow market makers who buy and sell at demand/supply and that is on chart...

Without understanding trading itself technical analysis can be very wrong... and there is no indicator to help...
  • #2,344
  • Sep 3, 2016 4:36am Sep 3, 2016 4:36am
Quoting ruma29
{quote} market makers can do irrational things, delay price movement regardless of fundamental, trade it in advance since they know all data , have speeches ...etc...Retail trader has nothing of it, cannot control price cannot control timing based on fundamental....so over all is guessing with high probability...trader's job is to look chart and try to follow market makers who buy and sell at demand/supply and that is on chart... Without understanding trading itself technical analysis can be very wrong... and there is no indicator to help...
Hey Ruma,
You are wrong there. The price is the last thing which will move. Before the price, the opinions will change, the momentum will change and the traders positions will change and then price is like last thing. Technical analysis in professional world is the easiest part. like 80 % of the job is to find strong fundamental conditions and divergence between central banks. Then, you use technical analysis to position and benefit for your fundamental view. But, you never want to base trade because of technical analysis, that is very wrong and that is what lead most of retail traders in bad trading. Market makers don't have insiders, they are just smart enough to base trade on fundamentals and they know that there is no overbought or oversold price, there is no oscillators and so on and so on. They don't think too much once they see opportunity. And, they add into winning positions.

My USD/JPY position is clear example of fundamental based trade and technical trigger. Started to buy from 102.25 and added yesterday. Going for 1:2 RRR and I am done.
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,345
  • Sep 3, 2016 11:36am Sep 3, 2016 11:36am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} Hey Ruma, You are wrong there. ...Then, you use technical analysis to position and benefit for your fundamental view....

Hello Petar,

I have no credibility at all to argue with you on this subject and on trading in general., I just said my opinion because my knowledge and especially interpretation on fundamentals are next to zero so for that reason Believe it is better for me to find a way to follow market then to assume what they(MM, Sm) will do with fundamentals, money ..etc. whatever they think it will be reflected in price, supply and demand levels will be created: buy at demand, sell at supply.

In improvised example: going to grocery store people don't bring MA or oscillators to buy....

As you said MM create opinion and move price : I have no ability to know their opinion until they move price then follow..market is absolutely organised , not random and that is good....I know I still might be wrong...
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  • #2,346
  • Sep 3, 2016 12:41pm Sep 3, 2016 12:41pm
Quoting ruma29
{quote} Hello Petar, I have no credibility at all to argue with you on this subject and on trading in general., I just said my opinion because my knowledge and especially interpretation on fundamentals are next to zero so for that reason Believe it is better for me to find a way to follow market then to assume what they(MM, Sm) will do with fundamentals, money ..etc. whatever they think it will be reflected in price, supply and demand levels will be created: buy at demand, sell at supply. In improvised example: going to grocery store people don't...
Hello Ruma,
No, its good that we have discussion and I respect every opinion. I explained on my webinar whats is the progress. Yes, the market is all about supply and demand but the cause is important. Since I am working with hedge fund traders and I worked with large institutional traders I want to share with you real true about institutional positions. The whole point is that institutions and large fund trades wont invest even 1 euro if there is no fundamental condition (reason) for that. You marked on the chart supply and demand but that demand on USD/JPY and reason why I am bullish is fundamental, its only a technical entry if you got my point. There is something called, the logical fundamental reason and something called speculative (manipulative) movement. Forex is full of speculative movements but once you find movement and there is real fundamental reason then that position is where institutions will put their money. Lets say that you see that X/X currency pair is going higher but there is no real fundamental reason, that is warning for potential speculative movement and manipulative movement. Since the most of traders see the price is going higher , they will trade with their strategies and so on but since there is no real institutional money there, Sl orders will be easy to achieve.
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,347
  • Sep 3, 2016 12:54pm Sep 3, 2016 12:54pm
Will post you example just when the fundamental is flat and how market makers can easy take SL orders on daily and short term bias (4 months of flat price and SL hunting). In this exmaple you can see how most of traders will lose their money, trying to trade flat fundamentals with no good condition. If you understand fundamentals, you just avoid this very easy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,348
  • Sep 3, 2016 1:34pm Sep 3, 2016 1:34pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Will post you example just when the fundamental is flat and how market makers can easy take SL orders on daily and short term bias (4 months of flat price and SL hunting). In this exmaple you can see how most of traders will lose their money, trying to trade flat fundamentals with no good condition. If you understand fundamentals, you just avoid this very easy. {image}
Fundamental became good for USD and bad for JPY and the result is upward price >
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,349
  • Sep 3, 2016 1:52pm Sep 3, 2016 1:52pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} Hello Ruma, No, its good that we have discussion and I respect every opinion. ....
From time to time I watch webinars by John Kicklighter from FXCM....He is more about fundamentals as a driver and then technical...Since in broker house he has all kind of resources available to make analysis on Forex, knowledge, experience...I don't know if you watched him...I cannot do that. I am not saying that is difficult but mind has to be set on that way to think, ability to collect all that information..process it ...etc...After all that analysis he might be right and might be wrong...Fundamentals set supply and demand and technical has to find it...

You changed I guess: looking some of your threads where you tried to resolve trading by technical: lines, new candles, VSA...
Thank you for having time to correspond with me...
  • #2,350
  • Sep 3, 2016 2:12pm Sep 3, 2016 2:12pm
Quoting ruma29
{quote} From time to time I watch webinars by John Kicklighter from FXCM....He is more about fundamentals as a driver and then technical...Since in broker house he has all kind of resources available to make analysis on Forex, knowledge, experience...I don't know if you watched him...I cannot do that. I am not saying that is difficult but mind has to be set on that way to think, ability to collect all that information..process it ...etc...After all that analysis he might be right and might be wrong...Fundamentals set supply and demand and technical...
Hey there,
Yes, you are right about that. You said very good point > ability to collect informations and to adapt to the new one, that is the professional trader job. Yes, in my earlier work I was much focused on technical but once I started to work like assistant for large traders and to watch institutional traders, then I completely changed my view and now without strong fundamentals I wont build any position. I didn't watch him but he is right if he said that. You can learn to read fundamentals and you don't need any broker information's, everything is available. Not just that you can learn, you need to learn to read fundamentals if you want to become professional trader. I am teaching new students on my mentorship program the whole process of research and collecting information's. You are welcome to join.

The 90 % of traders loose their money on Forex because they going as like the price on the chart and follow the path of least resistance. They are lazy to learn key subjects and they dont wont to study and think too much. There is no real success without hard work !!!
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,351
  • Sep 4, 2016 3:42am Sep 4, 2016 3:42am
As you can see on chart, MM knew several days in advance NFE( non-farm employment) numbers and accordingly prepared for trading. What my analysis could do? assuming with "high probability"? MM said it on chart ..learn to follow. pros and cons for NFE numbers...never mind MM already decided what to do.
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  • #2,352
  • Sep 4, 2016 5:08am Sep 4, 2016 5:08am
Quoting ruma29
As you can see on chart, MM knew several days in advance NFE( non-farm employment) numbers and accordingly prepared for trading. What my analysis could do? assuming with "high probability"? MM said it on chart ..learn to follow. pros and cons for NFE numbers...never mind MM already decided what to do. {image}
Hello Ruma,
They didn't know before at all. You can establish opinion before the news but once the news came out , a lot of pending orders got triggered. One thing also, past price action have nothing with a current direction and future. Future is future, what you see in the past its already done. In situations like rate decision, you do research and see if there is like 70,80% of rate cut or rate hike you put pending order to benefit of high percentage of the event but events like NFE is just economic indication which is one more clue to investors. The only reason why the price went lower for that day is NFE came out 255k VS 180K and that created demand for USD. BTW. most of institutions base trade on monitory policy and interest rate decisions not on economic events like NFE or Manufacturing or . Economic events are clues and one more information nothing more.If we speak about Gold. Gold is commodity and it is driven by USD events and interest decisions. We won't see any big drop on the gold before rate hike in US. Gold will go higher on bad numbers and go lower on good numbers for USD. Gold is going sideways now and won't go anywhere because the investors awaiting rate hike and further clues about rate. Gold Volatility Falls to Lowest This Year.

So, it's all about collecting information's and reading them on the proper way. The purpose of technical analysis in professional world is to benefit from the fundamental view. Same like on Stock marked. Since I also trade Stock market and invest there. There, I watch good company which got strong fundamentals, revenue growth, earnings per share growth and so on and then watch the chart to position myself. But I won't open chart of company if I didn't find good fundamentals.

Just think about it, lets say , you got a 10 milion account. Will you risk even 0.5% from account on intraday setups or trading the economic news or base trade on patterns, oscilators, moving average. Of course, not, you will wait strong fundamentals follow the central banks divergence and create short term position and there you can even risk 3,4,5% with no problem because you got the reason of being on the market and you are not afraid.

You can learn all of these and much more on my mentorship program and I advice everyone to start .

Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,353
  • Edited 7:33pm Sep 4, 2016 4:56pm | Edited 7:33pm
short USDJPY at 104.05
-------------
+28, +29
  • #2,354
  • Sep 5, 2016 6:01am Sep 5, 2016 6:01am
Quoting ruma29
short USDJPY at 104.05 ------------- +28, +29
I am glad that you took pips. I am still holding long from last week. Kuroda said that there is room for further easing in 3 dimensions, which support my USD/JPY buying.
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,355
  • Sep 6, 2016 8:31am Sep 6, 2016 8:31am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} I am glad that you took pips. I am still holding long from last week. Kuroda said that there is room for further easing in 3 dimensions, which support my USD/JPY buying.
My post was in momentum of our correspondence. Surely assume I have losses too...
  • #2,356
  • Sep 6, 2016 8:47am Sep 6, 2016 8:47am
Quoting ruma29
{quote} My post was in momentum of our correspondence. Surely assume I have losses too...
I am still bullish on short term. The price dropped 90 pips due to ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 55.4 but its still expanding. This was the strongest news for USD this week, that's why the news traders came in into market. I am expecting absorption soon from buyers and upward continuation. This may be another trap for sellers.
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,357
  • Sep 6, 2016 6:03pm Sep 6, 2016 6:03pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} I am still bullish on short term. The price dropped 90 pips due to ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 55.4 but its still expanding. This was the strongest news for USD this week, that's why the news traders came in into market. I am expecting absorption soon from buyers and upward continuation. This may be another trap for sellers.
Strong supply on USD/JPY but we will see, i got my SL order if the price continue lower.
Anyway, interesting action on EUR/USD and weakness in my opinion. Key pivotal point at 1.1255 and few successful tests from that number. Watch for selling opportunities. Downward levels to watch set at 1.1223 and 1.1175.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,358
  • Sep 6, 2016 6:10pm Sep 6, 2016 6:10pm
Quoting ruma29
As you can see on chart, MM knew several days in advance NFE( non-farm employment) numbers and accordingly prepared for trading. What my analysis could do? assuming with "high probability"? MM said it on chart ..learn to follow. pros and cons for NFE numbers...never mind MM already decided what to do. {image}
Hey Ruma, I don't believe price action alone can tell you when MM are making moves in the market. I do know though that the market tends to consolidate and not be too volatile in preparation of dependent key data . Data releases and the market continues its previous trend or breaks and starts a new one.
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #2,359
  • Edited 3:11am Sep 7, 2016 2:58am | Edited 3:11am
OK.
What was reason for USDJPY drop at doday's Asia session?...70 pips down...

What is behind today's NZDUSD move up?..In same time EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY were going sideays or sort of...
  • #2,360
  • Sep 7, 2016 3:43am Sep 7, 2016 3:43am
Quoting ruma29
OK. What was reason for USDJPY drop at doday's Asia session?...70 pips down... What is behind today's NZDUSD move up?..In same time EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY were going sideays or sort of...

NZD strength came in after the New Zealand GDT price index rose +7.7% in latest auction. Dairy price is most important fundamental factor for New Zealand. Recent weakness on USD came after the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI which came 51.4 vs 55.4, that created fear of potential postpone in rate hike in Septemeber.
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
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