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The Big secret to trading success

  • #501
  • May 7, 2016 7:39am May 7, 2016 7:39am
Quoting strongtrader
{quote} nice to see you again my friend, I hope everything is good with you
All good S. Good to see you around too mate. :-)
  • #502
  • May 7, 2016 7:44am May 7, 2016 7:44am
Quoting vasily
contrarian trader should bet on where market reverse.in fact no one can know where it will revrse.and the contrarian assume that he knows where it will stop and more then that reverse.this is big gamble.and when he can make some good bets he called market wizard trend trader with pullback takes small gamble and guess it where it will stop and reverse in the shade of big move trend trader with momentum ignore all bets and folow money move and jump in the move
contrarian trader : relatively best rr / big gamble

trend trader with pullback : good rr / small gamble

trend trader with momentum : worst rr / ı dont gamble

take the one fit you / all same shit
  • #503
  • Edited 10:21am May 7, 2016 8:31am | Edited 10:21am
Quoting vasily
trend trader with momentum ignore all bets and folow money move and jump in the move

Trend trading and momentum trading are very different things, quite opposite actually.

Quoting vasily
{quote} contrarian trader : relatively best rr / big gamble trend trader with pullback : good rr / small gamble trend trader with momentum : worst rr / ı dont gamble take the one fit you / all same shit

Why do you attribute the worst rr to momentum traders ?
  • #504
  • May 7, 2016 8:47am May 7, 2016 8:47am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Trend trading and momentum trading are very different things, quite opposite actually. {quote} Why do you attribute the worst rr to momentum traders ? As for the rest, you're right..
all right
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  • #505
  • May 7, 2016 8:53am May 7, 2016 8:53am
Quoting vasily
{quote} contrarian trader : relatively best rr / big gamble trend trader with pullback : good rr / small gamble trend trader with momentum : worst rr / ı dont gamble take the one fit you / all same shit
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} A momentum trader doesn't care about the trend, as volatility may destroy the trend completely

ı said

"trend trader with momentum : worst rr / ı dont gamble" not "momentum trader" darling...!
  • #506
  • May 7, 2016 9:53am May 7, 2016 9:53am
Quoting vasily
{quote} contrarian trader : relatively best rr / big gamble trend trader with pullback : good rr / small gamble trend trader with momentum : worst rr / ı dont gamble take the one fit you / all same shit
R:R could be the same for any type of trader.
The difference could be in the win rate but I don't see one method as more/less of a "gamble".
If the trader is better @ picking tops/bottoms than picking retracements, then step in front of the train :-)
The "gamble" part comes in when you don't use a SL.

UPTREND:

Counter-trend trader:
Sell @ 127% extension with 25 SL & 50 TP

Trend trader:
Buy @ 61% retracement with 25 SL & 50 TP

Trend trader with momentum:
Buy stop above resistance with 25 SL & 50 TP

***All have R:R of 1:2 so no more "risky" to step in front of train than jump on train in direction of trend. Just depends upon which method the trader is more comfortable/successful executing.
  • #507
  • May 7, 2016 9:57am May 7, 2016 9:57am
Quoting srt
{quote} R:R could be the same for any type of trader. The difference could be in the win rate but I don't see one method as more/less of a "gamble". UPTREND: Counter-trend trader: Sell @ 127% extension with 25 SL & 50 TP Trend trader: Buy @ 61% retracement with 25 SL & 50 TP Trend trader with momentum: Buy stop above resistance with 25 SL & 50 TP ***All have R:R of 1:2 so no more "risky" to step in front of train than jump on train in direction of trend. Just depends upon which method the trader is more comfortable/successful executing.
you can make many type of random trades any kind use your imegination
ı am talking in general and general trading types.you can trade with 1 pip+spread stop and 1000 pip take profit.up to you
many people here like to ignore the truth and bend it with no sense logic

"The "gamble" part comes in when you don't use a SL" you are beginer
  • #508
  • Edited 10:36am May 7, 2016 10:19am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Trend following is a pretty contrarian style of speculation. But ok, I shall discuss your point more seriously. Of course, 'contrarian' is one of those heavily misused words on FF. Ive seen a lot of pet ideas about what constitutes being contrarian on FF and most them do not hold merit. When we speak of the great contrarian speculators names like Paul Tudor Jones come up, and their style of 'contrarian trading' isn't close to what most people on FF think. Tudor Jones earned the title because he profited greatly by picking major market turning...
From your simple description, how can we explain for the huge profits amassed by those great contrarian speculators, the same goes with trend speculators ?
  • #509
  • May 7, 2016 10:41am May 7, 2016 10:41am
Quote
Net winners can take positions with or opposite the trend. Either one or the other or even both

Quoting Atokys
The ones I know of follow trends.
If you are a retail trader, the existence of trends and the ability to follow them are partially(and in no small part) related to any edge you can have.

I do not want to get too deep into particular techniques and methods, but the chart below is an excellent example of many of the things that have been previously spoken about in this thread. Focus on the right side of the chart, where we have an UP TREND and a low volume (No Supply) down bar for entry into the market.

A "quick" trend trade on a 5 minute USD/JPY chart.

The word quick is in quotes because the trade actually takes most of the NY session to set up.

1': This is the key bar. Strength, when it appears, usually appears on DOWN bars with very high volume. Notice the volume on this bar. It is the highest on the entire chart. But if this bar represented selling, why did the bar close well off the low? There must have been some buying in this bar.

2: This is a "spring". Here again we have high volume on a DOWN bar, but the close is near the top of the bar. Somebody mus have been buying on this bar. I submit to you those who are doing the buying are the Big Boys or Smart Money.

While the market does move up, this is not the ideal place for the retail trader to get long. Why? Because you are actually still fighting the trend. Notice how Chart Mode I and Chart Mode II are red. In fact, note how Chart Mode II remains red (A') until we get to (B').

4: No Supply. DOWN bar on volume less than the previous two bars in an UP TREND. Price is closing above the BPL, Chart Mode I & Chart Mode II are green.
The high probability low risk trade comes when we have trend on our side.

Somebody wrote in another post that the markets are rigged. He went on to say, "let the riggers do what they do. Because the riggers still need movement to make money out of the rigging". I don't know if I like the terms rigger and rigged. I do know that the Smart Money leaves footprints when they are active in the market. You don't have to outwit them, but rather let them do their thing. And understand once they have done their thing, the still need movement to make money. A retail trader should capitalize on that movement. And another word for said movement is trend.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #510
  • May 7, 2016 10:44am May 7, 2016 10:44am
Quoting srt
{quote} .........The "gamble" part comes in when you don't use a SL.......
Even if the trader religiously uses a stop loss for every trade, it does not make him any less a gambler.
  • #511
  • May 7, 2016 12:35pm May 7, 2016 12:35pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNY8h-Z2-qY
Thanks cindy for bringing me back to reality, I'm off this discussion hehehehe
  • #512
  • May 7, 2016 8:23pm May 7, 2016 8:23pm
In trading Everything is bullshit, Pointing out past PA with a explanation of the move is very easy, but hard to forecast. Com'on Forex is not run by Aliens, its Human. Before every major move the Pa tells for itself which direction it will move, when it comes to searching for an indi which can give confirmation of the move, I don't think anyone would be having a track record like me, I've spent hours if not years to find an indi which gives confirmation, before a price move and if I conclude, that is to be taken as serious consideration. There is no, I repeat NO indi which can confirm before a major price move except MACD for Divergence, and its the most powerful indi I've come across so far. Trading is not that hard, people lose because of there greed, at the same time fear of loosing money, they enter into the trade when even the pros will doubt, forecasting the direction of the trade. Every candle has a story is the best lesson I've got so far, before every major move the price will tell which direction it will move, If you wait for confirmation you will lose money, 99.9%+ of the time the high Impact news helps in moving the price into right direction. The best way to trade I've found so far is to trade what we see, and not to forecast the market, I've have attached few Images and videos, I want you to go through for better understanding ,

For consistent profit, you have to be fearless, buying tops and bottoms, and break of swing highs and lows, It is not possible to enter exact to the reversal point but with time you can improve your entries. I never trade on TF'S less than daily, Its for a reason, on smaller tf's the PA gives a clear direction the price will move which is conformed by Daily tf, the first thing I do with my chart is to mark major Support, and to check every day once for trades.

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I just don't post analysis I trade it .
  • #513
  • May 7, 2016 8:24pm May 7, 2016 8:24pm
Quoting skyway
From your simple description, how can we explain for the huge profits amassed by those great contrarian speculators, the same goes with trend speculators ?
The reason is apparent. Profit is made when a speculator opens a trade and then closes it after price has trended in the trade's favour.

As I have already said, words like 'contrarian' are ambiguous as it refers to a contradiction of convention, which differs depending on context.

To the investing public, trend following in the ultimate contrarian strategy because the conventional approach to investing is buy-and-hold and driven by fundamental analysis.

To FF, I have no idea. The word 'contrarian' is as misused as the word 'loose'.
  • #514
  • May 7, 2016 11:52pm May 7, 2016 11:52pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} {quote} If you are a retail trader, the existence of trends and the ability to follow them are partially(and in no small part) related to any edge you can have. I do not want to get too deep into particular techniques and methods, but the chart below is an excellent example of many of the things that have been previously spoken about in this thread. Focus on the right side of the chart, where we have an UP TREND and a low volume (No Supply) down bar for entry into the market. A "quick" trend trade on a 5 minute USD/JPY chart. The word quick...
I highlighted this post by Hidden Gap because he shows a detailed explanation regarding VSA. One big secret to trading success I believe is being able to pull analysis of your chart from different and uncorrelated angles. Here is the same chart using GMMA's, which makes things very visual. The awareness of the trend to the eye would put you in at the about the same point. Very simple way to help read price action. It was very helpful to me in my earlier days, and I still use them when I cannot get an idea of what the SM is trying to do. The bigger the toolbox, the better! I know there has been some debate about what "trend" is. I say the easiest way is to let your eyes tell you.
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If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #515
  • May 8, 2016 2:27am May 8, 2016 2:27am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I highlighted this post by Hidden Gap because he shows a detailed explanation regarding VSA. One big secret to trading success I believe is being able to pull analysis of your chart from different and uncorrelated angles. Here is the same chart using GMMA's, which makes things very visual. The awareness of the trend to the eye would put you in at the about the same point. Very simple way to help read price action. It was very helpful to me in my earlier days, and I still use them when I cannot get an idea of what the SM is trying to do....
Couldn't agree more J. Guppy's GMMA's are a great method for exploiting trends given their dramatic visualizations of trends....plus he is a great guy to boot. A fantastic mentor from the Dr Alexander Elder camp.
  • #516
  • May 8, 2016 3:14am May 8, 2016 3:14am
Quoting Copernicus
Guppy's GMMA's are a great method for exploiting trends given their dramatic visualizations of trends....plus he is a great guy to boot. A fantastic mentor from the Dr Alexander Elder camp.
Some happy memories for me, as three of the earliest books I read, when I first became interested in the markets, were by Daryl Guppy, Dr Elder and Van Tharp.

Anyway, attached are the latest versions of a couple of Guppy indicators that I wrote some time ago (for MT4), in case they are useful to anybody. The GMMA allows up to 8 MAs to be plotted, and is an alternative to simply stacking multiple MAs on your chart, and saving the end result as a template. More info in posts #7 and #8 here.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 GMMA.ex4   18 KB | 438 downloads
File Type: ex4 Guppy CBL.ex4   6 KB | 469 downloads
  • #517
  • Edited 4:08am May 8, 2016 3:47am | Edited 4:08am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Some happy memories for me, as three of the earliest books I read, when I first became interested in the markets, were by Daryl Guppy, Dr Elder and Van Tharp. Anyway, attached are the latest versions of a couple of Guppy indicators that I wrote some time ago (for MT4), in case they are useful to anybody. The GMMA allows up to 8 MAs to be plotted, and is an alternative to simply stacking multiple MAs on your chart, and saving the end result as a template. More info in posts #7 and #8 here....
Cheers H. Me too......which if I recall correctly means probably the 80's when there popular editions came out. I remember purchasing them from an ASX bookshop for crying out loud. Who now buys books from bookshops?...... After getting into Elder, the penny dropped that Darryl must have been trained under him.

The good ol' days when Lotus 123 used to kick MS Excel out of the ball park.....*sobs*.....memories. I sold my soul to the devil after realizing that the chicks just luv'd Excel fly boys.

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  • #518
  • May 8, 2016 3:59am May 8, 2016 3:59am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I highlighted this post by Hidden Gap because he shows a detailed explanation regarding VSA. One big secret to trading success I believe is being able to pull analysis of your chart from different and uncorrelated angles. Here is the same chart using GMMA's, which makes things very visual. The awareness of the trend to the eye would put you in at the about the same point. Very simple way to help read price action. It was very helpful to me in my earlier days, and I still use them when I cannot get an idea of what the SM is trying to do....
any system,algorithm,idea,way of think,analyses,etc etc if not giving you the exect exit level/zone/reason in loss situation then itsnt tredable.if itsnt tredable then itsnt valid.then its just a opinion.trading is basicly finding entry point where price go take profit sooner then stoploss.so all other things are to define this logic.trend,algorithm,slope,count,etc etc what ever.everything is relative rather then your risk
  • #519
  • May 8, 2016 6:23am May 8, 2016 6:23am
Here is a big secret for you guys: Forex is focus-bogus thing.

The bankers bring all your attention to the stupid trend moves. Solely looking for the trend is very much wrong thing to do. Trend/Range is 20/80 percent. This is exactly where the bankers, who do own and do run the damn forex market, want you to be looking at - locate the trend, so they can do their stop loss collections...

There are very few ways to be profitable in forex. They are all securely kept in private. So, you will never ever get access to those systems.

What can you do?

Surely you can build your own system.

Still, the very first thing is almost to ABANDON the stop orders and use MOSTLY limit orders.

Why?

It is simple, the bankers DO LOVE the STOP ORDERS and they haunt them! It is far more easy to haunt a stop rather than a limit order. The limit order requires more distance on the chart and this would mean more profits for the stop orders, so the movements are very limited. That is why, by now, you should already figured it out, forex is a game of Stop Losses, not Take Profits...

Using LIMIT orders is like taking the bankers side. And stay profitable. As much as they are... or just close to that.

A winning strategy, everybody can come to, should consist of about 1%, or less, of STOP ORDERS and usually, more than 99% of LIMIT ORDERS.

If someone could have told me this two years ago, I could have saved at least 18 months of researching in the wrong direction...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #520
  • Edited 9:00am May 8, 2016 8:40am | Edited 9:00am
I'm leaving this thread in the hands of others now, as although it has generated some excellent discussion, and all points of view are equally valid, I feel personally that I have contributed everything I can without running over old ground.

Is there though a secret to trading success? I think there is, and for me it applies to all areas in life, namely desire. Provided trading is approached with the right attitude and expectations, the path to success will always be open. If it takes 10 years to become a fully qualified doctor, why should these rules not apply to a professional trader. Trainee doctors do not look to become fully qualified in two or three years, yet traders, just because there is no formal qualification, attempt to do this all the time. When they fail, they appear on threads like this one to try and convince others that the game is rigged, that no one can succeed, and that ultimately we are all on a fool's errand. Some of us know otherwise because we have put in the mileage needed to succeed. Others do not because they are still in the early stages of the learning curve and are therefore highly susceptible to the prophets of doom among us.

So, there is no secret after all. It is not in the trend nor is it a certain indicator...it is in each and every one of us, and will be realized to its maximum potential provided we stay the course and never stop believing that where others have succeeded before us, so will we. Belief in ourselves is the most powerful weapon we have, in life, and in trading. There will always be the detractors among us, those who will never succeed, and our task is to use our own logic and intuition to listen to those more likely to ease our path rather than hinder it whilst always, remaining true to ourselves.

Hopefully our paths will cross on another thread.

Cat
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