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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #16,561
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:25am Apr 22, 2016 3:25am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} G/J 158.85 printed.
Hi FX-Ray, it should be some resistance here, looking to fill a short. It is Friday though, so cautious like always, just a bit more ...
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,562
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:28am Apr 22, 2016 3:28am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hi FX-Ray, it should be some resistance here, looking to fill a short. It is Friday though, so cautious like always, just a bit more ... {image}
Hi Hickson, next upside is 159.50; not sure about short yet, rather wait until NY open.
  • #16,563
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:37am Apr 22, 2016 3:37am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hi Hickson, next upside is 159.50; not sure about short yet, rather wait until NY open.
I do not know, but the major trend is still pretty bearish despite the squeeze. H4 was my reason to short. Could go up more of course, then 159.50 would be interesting indeed.
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,564
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:45am Apr 22, 2016 3:45am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I do not know, but the major trend is still pretty bearish despite the squeeze. H4 was my reason to short. Could go up more of course, then 159.50 would be interesting indeed. {image}
Gotcha

Next week is decision time, its possible we see a retrace here but im uncomfortable to short the runaway train here tbh.

The upcoming 27-28 April BoJ meeting is likely to push the authorities into finally admitting a plan to consolidate the JGB holdings into perpetual bonds alongside a formal move away from inflation targeting to nominal GDP targeting.

Although there is certainly room for deposit rates to be dropped further into negative territory and possibly the BoJ acquiring local government debt, there is growing realization that at some point the BoJ is likely to announce a tapering of JGBs towards the end of 2016 or early 2017. In this sense, we continue to believe that the BoJs sudden policy U-turn on negative deposit rates in January was driven by the need to collapse the yield curve into negative territory as far as possible.

The authorities are attempting to push bond yields down below existing nominal GDP, so that the existing debt can be converted or consolidated into a perpetual zero coupon bond presumably before any 'tapering announcement'.

(Source: http://ftalphaville.ft.com)

U/J line in sand: 110 (still), since G/J is still correlating you may use it as it as trigger next week.
Add: Example: BOJ statement -> retrace 110 -> takeoff both U/J & G/J
  • #16,565
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:56am Apr 22, 2016 3:56am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I do not know, but the major trend is still pretty bearish despite the squeeze. H4 was my reason to short. Could go up more of course, then 159.50 would be interesting indeed. {image}
G/J 159.50 equals U/J 111.35
  • #16,566
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:57am Apr 22, 2016 3:57am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hi Hickson, next upside is 159.50; not sure about short yet, rather wait until NY open.
GM Ray. Agreed. Waiting to see if this daily to plays out. Getting close. (That first green line is 159.465) so looking about the same as you said. Also waiting on NY. Not dipping my toes in yet.
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #16,567
  • Apr 22, 2016 3:59am Apr 22, 2016 3:59am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Hi Hickson, next upside is 159.50; not sure about short yet, rather wait until NY open.
I think you're right, unfortunately.
I suspect pound will reach 1.4514 in current move up.
USDJPY will not give up 110.00 in a hurry either.
Some hedging are needed to avoid serious drawdown.
When in doubt, HEDGE
  • #16,568
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:00am Apr 22, 2016 4:00am
Quoting albchr
{quote} GM Ray. Agreed. Waiting to see if this daily to plays out. Getting close. (That first green line is 159.465) so looking about the same as you said. Also waiting on NY. Not dipping my toes in yet. {image} {image}
110.65 U/J here to continue, if price falls below rather wait since there is room for retracement until 110 which is next support.
Add: NY open probably clarifies.
  • #16,569
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:02am Apr 22, 2016 4:02am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Gotcha Next week is decision time, its possible we see a retrace here but im uncomfortable to short the runaway train here tbh. The upcoming 27-28 April BoJ meeting is likely to push the authorities into finally admitting a plan to consolidate the JGB holdings into perpetual bonds alongside a formal move away from inflation targeting to nominal GDP targeting. Although there is certainly room for deposit rates to be dropped further into negative territory and...
You are right, momentum is really strong ... might have been a bit too technical on this one, SL is 60 pips away so has some room, let's see.
Things are getting tricky with BOJ, ECB and basically all central banks ... all don't know what to do lol. Yes, UJ I also have this:
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,570
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:03am Apr 22, 2016 4:03am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} You are right, momentum is really strong ... might have been a bit too technical on this one, SL is 60 pips away so has some room, let's see. Things are getting tricky with BOJ, ECB and basically all central banks ... all don't know what to do lol. Yes, UJ I also have this: {image}
Waiting is key.

'You can observe a lot by just watching.' - Yogi Berra
  • #16,571
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:08am Apr 22, 2016 4:08am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} 110.65 U/J here to continue, if price falls below rather wait since there is room for retracement until 110 which is next support. Add: NY open probably clarifies.

Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Waiting is key. 'You can observe a lot by just watching.' - Yogi Berra
I don't disturb the beast whilst she's eating / resting ... .... lol
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #16,572
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:11am Apr 22, 2016 4:11am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} Waiting is key. 'You can observe a lot by just watching.' - Yogi Berra
The problem is that sometimes something like this IS waiting for me
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,573
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:14am Apr 22, 2016 4:14am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} The problem is that sometimes something like this IS waiting for me
Good one
Attached Image
  • #16,574
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:19am Apr 22, 2016 4:19am
posted this over in NU thread... cup and handle, 180 north... AJ slow out the blocks, so is EJ

and GJ 1 hour looks higher, perfect because it leads close to a short I'm waiting for
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  • #16,575
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:19am Apr 22, 2016 4:19am
Wrong structure to short ... should sleep more lol
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,576
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:23am Apr 22, 2016 4:23am
Quoting alayinizAMK
bet up until some clear sign {image}
pure imagination but think of three weeks like this before a real reversal. pain..
Attached Image
  • #16,577
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:52am Apr 22, 2016 4:52am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} I do not know, but the major trend is still pretty bearish despite the squeeze. H4 was my reason to short. Could go up more of course, then 159.50 would be interesting indeed. {image}
159.50 printed
  • #16,578
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:55am Apr 22, 2016 4:55am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} 159.50 printed
And what now? for me its quite resistence here, will it turn down or keep moving?
  • #16,579
  • Apr 22, 2016 4:59am Apr 22, 2016 4:59am
Quoting FX-Ray
{quote} 159.50 printed
s/o already, last try:
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #16,580
  • Apr 22, 2016 5:00am Apr 22, 2016 5:00am
Quoting RomanBubenik
{quote} And what now? for me its quite resistence here, will it turn down or keep moving?
NY about to open, it gets clear, am still long biased.

Add: next upside is 160.89, time will tell.
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