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The Swamp

  • #3,661
  • Apr 15, 2016 11:13am Apr 15, 2016 11:13am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} and absolutely tradeable
1465 slap it down.. london rolled above the mid 1287.. so after st mids 1280 or 74 get touched i hope london close was indicative of up, ej taking that shit pulling eu..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #3,662
  • Apr 15, 2016 11:16am Apr 15, 2016 11:16am
eurusd EMA55 was reached this week (L 1'12333),. with eurcad SMA14 monthly (L 1.43739),...maybe a basis for more investments long for me,
even eurusd monthly could shaping out a little bit more a downside candles (shadow) before its going up again...
but that's not the case IMO, ...how many risk are you willing to take over in this market situation?
FXcube
  • #3,663
  • Apr 15, 2016 11:30am Apr 15, 2016 11:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} possible ej short..123.47/124.22. after 124/124.22 probably safer.
if you took it, you're up 80 atm.. not sure st if 121.93 is coming before the same trade again.. wash rinse repeat.. a new short may be at the same place above once more. but once 121.93 is touched.. i would be more inclined to forget about 121.20 target. ad start looking for some confirmed reversal formations. it may take weeks/months or not at all. posted the 137. stuff norm earlier.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #3,664
  • Apr 15, 2016 11:35am Apr 15, 2016 11:35am
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} #3'640 1282 actual...
?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #3,665
  • Apr 15, 2016 11:49am Apr 15, 2016 11:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ad start looking for some confirmed reversal formations. it may take weeks/months or not at all. posted the 137. stuff norm earlier.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} that's ok 121.93 is a big one.. more an area where large closes may weigh in.
find out what is 121.93 ( here is 121.94) , will be watching it , thanks for sharing
  • #3,666
  • Edited 12:04pm Apr 15, 2016 11:54am | Edited 12:04pm
Bullish JPY cause one has a bearish equity bias has been the "account martyr story" for almost a decade now and always loses money. Equities will go to heaven till they cannot anymore. GLOBALLY. Not just the S&P. So the more carry attractive story will always be the surest one to short.

Japan has a current account surplus with a serious growth problem. Bullish JPY is kinda like betting someone wont use the nearest idle sitting cash to avoid a margin call to keep a conviction trade alive. And we've seen it before. They WILL print. Cause it would be "not reality" not to.

Just my 2 cents.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #3,667
  • Apr 15, 2016 12:05pm Apr 15, 2016 12:05pm
Quoting Neqrotik
Bearish JPY cause one has a bearish equity bias has been the "account martyr story" for almost a decade now and always loses money. Equities will go to heaven till they cannot anymore. GLOBALLY. Not just the S&P. So the more carry attractive story will always be the surest one to short. Japan has a current account surplus with a serious growth problem. Bullish JPY is kinda like betting someone wont use the nearest idle sitting cash to avoid a margin call to keep a conviction trade alive. And we've seen it before. They WILL print. Cause it would...
after 1800 pips. you're a little late. lots of believers long gone, with pockets full of silver, gold, and a canteen of oil, betting on china.. last man has the last laugh
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #3,668
  • Apr 15, 2016 12:08pm Apr 15, 2016 12:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} after 1800 pips. you're a little late.
But Gator. I understand your point. But my point is this is just a pullback and this story is far from over. I mean, wouldnt you agree?
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #3,669
  • Apr 15, 2016 12:14pm Apr 15, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} last man has the last laugh
Oh hell yeah. I hear ya there. Just timing is the trick in current environment. Banker's still "believe". As long as they have the power the print "real shit" as it stands now....I'm respecting it till it makes me money not to.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #3,670
  • Apr 15, 2016 12:21pm Apr 15, 2016 12:21pm
Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} But Gator. I understand your point. But my point is this is just a pullback and this story is far from over. I mean, wouldnt you agree?
nope.. just the beginning of a 40 year energy reset.. has anyone like goldman or any central bank been right? u.s. oil companies and workers have to get used to lower oil.. even below this year's oil low. the fed is between a rock and a hardplace. even 40 dollar oil is 300% above 2001.. we have yet to absorb 2007 crash bills.. china and europe banks are hiding large book losses..
boj and the ecb have no control.. and the little control the fed has has a small threshold.. come on man rates are negative and yet yen got stronger.. the world especially equities are whistling through the graveyard. you can cant more than gibberish, from the experts trying to act like they know.

i relate whats indicated.. then do the indications agree with the closes. as long as they do.. i am on that train..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #3,671
  • Apr 15, 2016 1:08pm Apr 15, 2016 1:08pm
have a good weekend.. later
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #3,672
  • Apr 15, 2016 3:17pm Apr 15, 2016 3:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
have a good weekend.. later
have a good weekend Gator , I tried to find out what is 1388 , couldn't , could you please give a hint , gone through your posts and charts also nothing ... , is it London 1/4 close ?
  • #3,673
  • Apr 15, 2016 11:14pm Apr 15, 2016 11:14pm
Silver, daily chart
Had to try although was Friday afternoon, short little bit...risking not more than 2%
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  • #3,674
  • Edited 3:18am Apr 16, 2016 3:02am | Edited 3:18am
Quoting gatorinla
back to 1404 may look like this {image}
hi gator. that 1404 is the previous mid from 1.1464-1.1345? how come fibb can be drawn this way if the high there wasn't made?

how come 50's have an attraction is there any logic behind it or long term observation?
less is more
  • #3,675
  • Apr 16, 2016 6:29am Apr 16, 2016 6:29am
Quoting mejo
{quote} hi gator. that 1404 is the previous mid from 1.1464-1.1345? how come fibb can be drawn this way if the high there wasn't made? how come 50's have an attraction is there any logic behind it or long term observation?
cthulhu
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  • #3,676
  • Edited 8:16am Apr 16, 2016 7:58am | Edited 8:16am
YEN

Vecchio says: Politically, Japanese policymakers probably dont want a stronger dollar/yen so as to deter US policymakers from backing out of the TTP, which greatly benefits Japanese automakers.
Japans big problem: the strengthening yen

on the other hand...

When foreigners sell Japanese stocks, they simultaneously close out those short yen positions. This causes the yen to rise, which investors see as a further sell signal on stocks, since so many Japanese companies are reliant on a cheap currency to remain profitable. It is a classic feedback loop with market-shattering consequences.
And foreigner investors matter a lot in Japan. They make up 60% of trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. A decade ago it was 38%.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-...ger-1455182036


...& maybe some arguments more:

...one of the biggest risks on the horizon is a substantive currency devaluation from China, while a significant repricing of Fed interest rate forecasts also seems inevitable. Both of these should in theory be bearish for the Japanese economy and by extension the Yen (bullish USD/JPY). And yet if either or both is accompanied with significant volatility across global markets, a broader flight to safety could once again drive Yen gains (USD/JPY declines).
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundam...ue-Higher.html
  • #3,677
  • Apr 16, 2016 9:53pm Apr 16, 2016 9:53pm
Quoting Forexcube
YEN Vecchio says: Politically, Japanese policymakers probably dont want a stronger dollar/yen so as to deter US policymakers from backing out of the TTP, which greatly benefits Japanese automakers. Japans big problem: the strengthening yen on the other hand... When foreigners sell Japanese stocks, they simultaneously close out those short yen positions. This causes the yen to rise, which investors see as a further sell signal on stocks, since so many Japanese companies are reliant on a cheap currency to remain profitable. It is a classic feedback...
Hotel occupancy in Osaka and Tokyo I believe also probably consists of 60% foreigners. The same seemed to be at many of the nice restaurants in Osaka and Tokyo where many tourists go. Locals are not spending much in Japan these days
  • #3,678
  • Apr 17, 2016 2:06am Apr 17, 2016 2:06am
Quoting PhAnTi'
hey buddies, 3 trades ongoing, cad pairs moving well. moved stops to be, eu facing 1295... lets c..... off to the girl, catch ya on monday -have a lovely weekend! best, J. {image} {image} {image}
s/o eur/cad and cad/jpy for a few.... bummer!.... e/u long running, oil summit today, lets c
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #3,679
  • Apr 17, 2016 5:40am Apr 17, 2016 5:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1465 slap it down.. london rolled above the mid 1287.. so after st mids 1280 or 74 get touched i hope london close was indicative of up, ej taking that shit pulling eu.. {image}
hi...i see more mids now...may i ask you what happens when we roll above/below(london, roll) them or when they get touched? thanks
less is more
  • #3,680
  • Apr 17, 2016 6:59am Apr 17, 2016 6:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} hard situation.. oil went from 2x.00$ to 147.. while we protected them.. seems like someone's plan worked. with friends like that, who needs enemies? hell, who needs friends. all those usd floating around the world are coming out from under the (budget) mattress. that probably has something to do with usd unable to gain. china did it, i am sure lower oil is causing saudis to do the same. russia playing war games with navy.
It's indeed a hard situation .............

Export Petrodollar and import Crude from Saudis. Since Nixon unpegged dollar from Gold, Petrodollar is nothing more than I.O.U notes. These notes were converted by Saudis to US Treasuries. They hold a large portion of $20 trillion US national debt. Exact amount unknown to the publics.

Petrodollar can buy many things such as nuclear weapon although Saudi is signatory to Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation Treaty, jet fighters twice the amount of the whole UK Royal Air Force benefitted those war business companies. Funding groups for globalization of their laws such as ISIS, Daesh, ........... And Petrodollar can buy as many policy makers as needed.

Decade long sanctions on Iran oil export with the pretext of Iran Nuclear program was part of Saudi agenda to control oil market and price. Sanctions on Iran lifted and declassified 28 pages of 9/11................. Not going to end well.
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