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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #21,201
  • Apr 14, 2016 5:53am Apr 14, 2016 5:53am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I know, exactly, I went off to watch a film instead...
Don't blame you.
  • #21,202
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:04am Apr 14, 2016 6:04am
For future reference, breakouts, like the one we just had, can be pretty impossible to catch before they break out, and it is too dangerous just to jump in when they have broken out. The best and safest strategy I find is to wait for a pullback, because there usually is one. You have to use a small time frame though, so on my 30 second TF, the price pulled back to the 100sma, then left a perfect hammer candlestick, which was the invitation to jump in. It's the sort of thing I always look for, a signal which says " C'mon mate, it's now or never "!
  • #21,203
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:09am Apr 14, 2016 6:09am
Quoting cat
For future reference, breakouts, like the one we just had, can be pretty impossible to catch before they break out, and it is too dangerous just to jump in when they have broken out. The best and safest strategy I find is to wait for a pullback, because there usually is one. You have to use a small time frame though, so on my 30 second TF, the price pulled back to the 100sma, then left a perfect hammer candlestick, which was the invitation to jump in. It's the sort of thing I always look for, a signal which says " C'mon mate, it's now or never "!...
Yeah, I agree... Also about 2 hours ago, we had an inverted head and shoulders forming, and then it found support on 200sma with a nice hammer as you said on top of the hour about 1 hour ago (2pm CET).
  • #21,204
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:18am Apr 14, 2016 6:18am
Big R level right now on the Dax, and very soon we should know whether this bull run has the legs to break through it or not.
  • #21,205
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:22am Apr 14, 2016 6:22am
That original Dow level I mentioned seems to be holding as well, for now?
  • #21,206
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:27am Apr 14, 2016 6:27am
Quoting cat
That original Dow level I mentioned seems to be holding as well, for now?
I'd put my money on the bulls today... but pullbacks are most welcome
  • #21,207
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:33am Apr 14, 2016 6:33am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} I'd put my money on the bulls today... but pullbacks are most welcome
Not now I wouldn't, not with the R I've got just above.
  • #21,208
  • Apr 14, 2016 6:39am Apr 14, 2016 6:39am
Quoting cat
{quote} Not now I wouldn't, not with the R I've got just above.
​agreed, I shorted from 10094, stops at 10105, holding out for LL, below 9500, although to be safe ill probably close sub 10k, see how today plays, close below 10050 would be more than welcome, as would hourly below 10090 we will see
  • #21,209
  • Apr 14, 2016 8:40am Apr 14, 2016 8:40am
Took a buy entry off the 200sma with 5mins to market close... exited on the close of the market at 5.30 CET, usually you get a spike of last minute buyers during risk-on sentiment.

See ya tomorrow.
  • #21,210
  • Apr 14, 2016 12:01pm Apr 14, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting Forexcube
PO DAX, Short @ 10'090 (10x), (if so) ___ PO = Pending Order
executed...
  • #21,211
  • Apr 14, 2016 12:03pm Apr 14, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​agreed, I shorted from 10094, stops at 10105, holding out for LL, below 9500, although to be safe ill probably close sub 10k, see how today plays, close below 10050 would be more than welcome, as would hourly below 10090 we will see
Stopped at b.e after initial 30 or so retrace, re entered at same price, and 10104, stops are above 10110

would welcome daily close below 60, very doubtful and will probably be closer to 90, but supports shorts
  • #21,212
  • Apr 14, 2016 10:47pm Apr 14, 2016 10:47pm
See some supports at:

10,090.00pts: 1M - 200 SMA
10,089.10pts: 1H - 7 SMA
10,084.80pts: 5M - 200 SMA
10,083.10pts: 1H - 20 SMA
10,074.30pts: 4H - 7 SMA

However, major resistance at 200SMA on Daily at 10,105pts. Not sure it can clear it, perhaps this morning, or when NYSE goes online, let's see.

I do not expect it to break below 10,000pts today, but it could be a tight ranging day limiting the upside and with possible pullbacks to low/mid 10,000-10,100pts range. Then again, I could be wrong and it blasts north.
  • #21,213
  • Apr 14, 2016 11:27pm Apr 14, 2016 11:27pm
next stop for DAX = 10879 --- target 2-3 weeks...
practising coitus interruptus
  • #21,214
  • Apr 14, 2016 11:29pm Apr 14, 2016 11:29pm
Quoting PariCovek
See some supports at: 10,090.00pts: 1M - 200 SMA 10,089.10pts: 1H - 7 SMA 10,084.80pts: 5M - 200 SMA 10,083.10pts: 1H - 20 SMA 10,074.30pts: 4H - 7 SMA However, major resistance at 200SMA on Daily at 10,105pts. Not sure it can clear it, perhaps this morning, or when NYSE goes online, let's see. I do not expect it to break below 10,000pts today, but it could be a tight ranging day limiting the upside and with possible pullbacks to low/mid 10,000-10,100pts range. Then again, I could be wrong and it blasts north.
true massive resistance on the 10000-10100 price range... i believe it will be broken...to give way for dax to rush to 10879
practising coitus interruptus
  • #21,215
  • Apr 14, 2016 11:45pm Apr 14, 2016 11:45pm
Quoting avibe
{quote} true massive resistance on the 10000-10100 price range... i believe it will be broken...to give way for dax to rush to 10879
Maybe, but the Dow looks like it's building to drop 500 pips or so on the H4 chart next week, perhaps beginning today, which can only mean south for the Dax as well.
  • #21,216
  • Apr 14, 2016 11:50pm Apr 14, 2016 11:50pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Maybe, but the Dow looks like it's building to drop 500 pips or so on the H4 chart next week, perhaps beginning today, which can only mean south for the Dax as well.
Early next week for that big drop, I'll probably add a Short position on 20 April, and another on 21 April if it hasn't dropped. All based on Time Series analysis.
  • #21,217
  • Apr 14, 2016 11:58pm Apr 14, 2016 11:58pm
GM,
some levels on Daily, 1st - @ 10, 100:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1.png Size: 49 KB

Best,
  • #21,218
  • Apr 15, 2016 12:26am Apr 15, 2016 12:26am
judging by yesterday's range and today's (so far at least), it seems that traders are waiting for Doha....
  • #21,219
  • Apr 15, 2016 12:52am Apr 15, 2016 12:52am
Looks like some weakness, some Auto companies across Eurozone reporting poor earnings, causing some selling in the Dax. I sense its temporary weakness.
  • #21,220
  • Apr 15, 2016 1:34am Apr 15, 2016 1:34am
There may well be a pullback soon back up towards the CP @ 066 which could offer a short opportunity if you're not already in this move?
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