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The sacred edge 2.0

  • #261
  • Apr 4, 2016 9:21am Apr 4, 2016 9:21am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I wouldn't treat them in the same way. Whilst they are both "lines" of price - the theory behind is not the same. However, having said that, there is no reason why you couldn't trade a break of these lines as a normal breakout trade on either side (which is my preferred method). There are however, others, who have done fantastic work to prove (through their own trading and results) that doing contra-trend trades back towards these levels do work and I've followed some of these. It's definitely not S/R as the whole concept of S/R is to merely...
the reason i prefer to trade contra is that i can produce where price should go to the pip. but the other way i can't predict and i have no idea whats happening. the gold rally recently was contrarian. thats has made me believe that when the crowd is selling the big boys are accumulating longs, buying repeatedly at different levels until the trend finishes its logical course and reverses. thats exactly what happened to gold
  • #262
  • Apr 4, 2016 9:24am Apr 4, 2016 9:24am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} the reason i prefer to trade contra is that i can produce where price should go to the pip. but the other way i can't predict and i have no idea whats happening. the gold rally recently was contrarian. thats has made me believe that when the crowd is selling the big boys are accumulating longs, buying repeatedly at different levels until the trend finishes its logical course and reverses. thats exactly what happened to gold
as i said i have developed my own method. one of the things i do is define every pair longterm. is it trending or ranging? then i would know how to manage the gap. One way is to trade only in the direction of the major trend that way you are contra on minor trend but right with the major trend. Examples are the recent GU rally. thats a sweet short setup to look for
  • #263
  • Apr 4, 2016 9:27am Apr 4, 2016 9:27am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} as i said i have developed my own method. one of the things i do is define every pair longterm. is it trending or ranging? then i would know how to manage the gap. One way is to trade only in the direction of the major trend that way you are contra on minor trend but right with the major trend. Examples are the recent GU rally. thats a sweet short setup to look for
but then the counter trend trades are riskier but more juicier. easy pips on a platter of gold. I have my own way of trading that to. its different from trading with the trend. example was the cadjpy chart i posted. i got burnt on that trade and also felt this shit doesn't work. only to see that target being hit 2 months later. some crazy stuff. this market is all a deception
  • #264
  • Apr 4, 2016 9:37am Apr 4, 2016 9:37am
the best analogy is like learning a skill. Eg. Riding a bike.

For sure there are theories as to why the bike stays up and also the interaction of the cyclist etc and everything in between.
But one only ever learns on an individual basis. My experience just won't be the same as another's.

Yet we both can be observed riding the bicycle down the street doing the same thing.

But it could be that I favour my right leg and I have a tendency to lean to the left. So I am also overcompensating for things that are unique to me.
If a scientist were to analyse this, they could potentially explain it but to get the same feeling/mentality/physicality etc etc is almost entirely impossible and we start delving into psychology and NLP type stuff.

... and that's just riding a bike! Imagine a much more complex skill such as painting..... or even TRADING, let alone trading using a particular technique or theory.

It's just hard.

So simply breaking down a theory into an idea is one thing - but this doesn't always translate into something that's tradeable. Personal style and all that, comes into it. Never mind the veracity of the technique's theory.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #265
  • Apr 4, 2016 9:46am Apr 4, 2016 9:46am
As far as all that TZ, Similarity and all that jazz that Ephisi and countless others got into, I can only say that the journey through it has resulted in unique styles. Kind of like learning martial arts (which I did when I was younger). Same concept, thousands of ways to implement and interpret.

I favour trading with trend and I get triggered by a variety of pattern formations, but one of them is Bollinger Band and Pivot Levels.
Ephisi, you and I got into some very early Transient Zone experiments with Pivots early on and I got to find my own rhythm with using Zig Zag Bollinger and Pivot Levels.

I did try and use pure TZ levels.... but I found I was relying on an MT4 client to give me charts. This was a crutch for me.
So I went through a period of naked trading (hahaha) without indicators so that I wasn't relying on the TZ indicators but on TZ theory. Not everything was usable, but I found that what worked for me seemed to always be trade with trend. I could scalp back counter trend.... but I also found I spent too much time analysing the damn trades when my original objectives (ie. lifestyle objectives) was to free up time.

So you see, the TZ business only plays a very minor part in the evolution of "being a trader" - whatever that means. It's just a tool.

I don't use Fibonacci retracements anymore, when I used them alot.
I don't use S/R lines like I used to before.... I plot them against Pivots and I also have some observations about Pivots which are TZ-like. eg. Sunday as a trading day Pivot Levels.

I only use Similarity in terms of ZZBB but I am able to put up MACD or RSI or Stochastics or anything lagging, and enter some settings so that it models price in a "similar" way. This allows me to go onto any internet chart and get a 5 minute view without relying on MT4 or any platform. So again, it's using the art to be able to express myself - rather than being reliant on the tool itself.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #266
  • Apr 4, 2016 9:59am Apr 4, 2016 9:59am
Quoting vlady1974
the best analogy is like learning a skill. Eg. Riding a bike. For sure there are theories as to why the bike stays up and also the interaction of the cyclist etc and everything in between. But one only ever learns on an individual basis. My experience just won't be the same as another's. Yet we both can be observed riding the bicycle down the street doing the same thing. But it could be that I favour my right leg and I have a tendency to lean to the left. So I am also overcompensating for things that are unique to me. If a scientist were to analyse...
nicely said vlad. like the true teacher that you are
  • #267
  • Apr 4, 2016 10:08am Apr 4, 2016 10:08am
Quoting vlady1974
As far as all that TZ, Similarity and all that jazz that Ephisi and countless others got into, I can only say that the journey through it has resulted in unique styles. Kind of like learning martial arts (which I did when I was younger). Same concept, thousands of ways to implement and interpret. I favour trading with trend and I get triggered by a variety of pattern formations, but one of them is Bollinger Band and Pivot Levels. Ephisi, you and I got into some very early Transient Zone experiments with Pivots early on and I got to find my...
well said. Trading is an art and uniques styles have evolved. i can totally relate with your explanation. By the way when we got into those experiments i hadn't discovered what i know now. i remember that period i struggled with understanding the concept. i still struggle with the theory and never bothered to go further after i found what worked for me. i simply specialised in that area and dumped the rest. it was some brain tasking period
  • #268
  • Apr 4, 2016 10:19am Apr 4, 2016 10:19am
Just to give an example of the ridiculous number of signposts that are observable on EURUSD 1H, consider this chart.

What I'm pointing out isn't necessarily a map of how to trade triggers. But any one of these could become a testable trade-type trigger if you delve into the scenarios. Again, each is not for everyone - it's just an idea. They just all happen to have a Similarity or TZ origin from my own view of the world.

 

  1. Firstly, let's establish that on the 1H purely on the screen, trend was originally down before it started going up.
  2. Since I use Pivots, I have them on screen. Notice where price returns to previous Pivot Levels. THESE ARE NOT S/R LEVELS. Even if you could argue that price went to these levels based on demand then went down because of supply - since I don't have order flow data, then I cannot 100% say to myself that is where Support and Resistance will occurr.... that is a fallacy.
  3. The Z marks in blue are my Bollinger indicator. Usually an alternating sequence I look for when it stops alternating. Such as where I mark tram lines and one Z is higher than the other but above the same bollinger line. This is a level of confluence or RECURRANCE. That must mean then that the transient area is below it and would therefore give a view that the trend is up. In theory then any Longs can be protected with a stop placed within the Transient Area.
  4. What I like about Pivots is that it is a global indicator and I use them to guage performance.... not to predict price/direction. I use them in a sense of if above Pivot long, if below short. But then I see if the Pivots are in line with my Bollinger observations. I usually trade reactions, so I would have placed a long after the second blue Z on the bottom, but not on the impulse bar but after wards - using the pivots as my transient zone lines. Hence, they are not "support"/ "resistance" but psychological barriers where market has decided not to return or test.
  5. It's only when you get into the next area where you see the sequence suggests that price will retest various price levels and the only practical way I can trade is to take breaks of lines. Again, I am not using these with a concept of support resistance. It's almost a binary test.... yes/no, long/short kind of thing.


Now many could argue that I am using S/R and that's fine if they want to describe it that way. But I know that when I am trading, I am definitely not looking at it that way. However, that's not to say I won't go into a Monthly or Weekly and plot out S/R lines just to understand the chart and take a view.

It's just a perspective and once you are able to use these on a chart with your own perspective then you can truly say you are an independent thinking trader - and that's a freedom you just can't buy.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1H.JPG Size: 268 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #269
  • Apr 4, 2016 10:32am Apr 4, 2016 10:32am
yep Vlad. i remember telling you how i notice the alternating sequence in your BBZZ method and how the sequence and non sequential concepts was so similar to the TZ indicator sequence and non sequence. Very interesting stuff. Great job.pardon me saying you don't apply TZ/RZ concept. You actually do in your own way. i just forgot that we can't both trade the same way based on our individual personalities

I can't imagine how you came up with the sequence and non sequence on BBZZ. Some art. the mind is really awesome
  • #270
  • Apr 4, 2016 10:33am Apr 4, 2016 10:33am
Here's another idea as to why Transient vs Recurrant Zones aren't the same as S/R

EURUSD 4H. I happen to use Pivots because they're convenient and the platform draws them, I don't.

The highlighted line is a Pivot Point. But it just happens to be a "resistance" line that marked the top of the recent 4H swing top???? really? How did it know to do that in advance if the formula for Pivort is [O+H+C] / 3? Unless it means that Pivots have nothing to do with S/R and it's just a function of price itself (which I just showed it is).

The fact that bounces and breaks occur at S/R simply means that these are the logical and visible price points that thousands of traders around the world find them practical price points to place their trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H.JPG Size: 296 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #271
  • Apr 4, 2016 10:56am Apr 4, 2016 10:56am
Quoting vlady1974
Here's another idea as to why Transient vs Recurrant Zones aren't the same as S/R EURUSD 4H. I happen to use Pivots because they're convenient and the platform draws them, I don't. The highlighted line is a Pivot Point. But it just happens to be a "resistance" line that marked the top of the recent 4H swing top???? really? How did it know to do that in advance if the formula for Pivort is [O+H+C] / 3? Unless it means that Pivots have nothing to do with S/R and it's just a function of price itself (which I just showed it is). The fact that bounces...
Good stuff. Experience counts
  • #272
  • Apr 5, 2016 12:20am Apr 5, 2016 12:20am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} TZ never lies. EURJPY hits target. would like to see EURJPY push further to clear 126.50 bottom of target zone and possible trend even more. Below 126.50 would start looking for exhaustion after some downside to resume up move towards 132 target as i called some pages back. EURUSD dancing around but will surely head towards target
Ok, so enough of the TZ jazz ma Tazz. lol. This is my own trading strategy and my own interpretation and application of the TZ/RZ principles. I don't understand all of the theory. as a matter of fact it was a frustrating experience. but in all i found what works. so we leave it at that.
  • #273
  • Apr 5, 2016 12:24am Apr 5, 2016 12:24am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} TZ never lies. EURJPY hits target. would like to see EURJPY push further to clear 126.50 bottom of target zone and possible trend even more. Below 126.50 would start looking for exhaustion after some downside to resume up move towards 132 target as i called some pages back. EURUSD dancing around but will surely head towards target
As expected EURJPY trending. if i were in that trade i would move stop to breakeven once TZ target hit and wait for trend to continue. Also i don't know how far down we would head but we have a date with 132 after exhaustion. we watch price action around 122 for reversal. EURJPY also dragging EURUSD down with it. TZ never lies. No stops to hunt, just patience needed
  • #274
  • Apr 5, 2016 7:00am Apr 5, 2016 7:00am
Long term Counter trend trade. EURGBP once GBP begins to strengthen. EURGBP is heading back to 0.7080 .
  • #275
  • Apr 5, 2016 7:09am Apr 5, 2016 7:09am
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar 54.5 exp 54.1 prev 53.4 As i have said in previous posts, the market just bounces around within a range waiting for the favourable news to move price towards target.
  • #276
  • Apr 5, 2016 7:15am Apr 5, 2016 7:15am
Quoting ephisi
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar 54.5 exp 54.1 prev 53.4 As i have said in previous posts, the market just bounces around within a range waiting for the favourable news to move price towards target.
Not much effect on EURUSD for now. Nothing to do. just patience
  • #277
  • Apr 6, 2016 11:24pm Apr 6, 2016 11:24pm
Good morning all. EURJPY keeps EURUSD from squeezing higher. Based on Vlads recent contributions i have seen that common sense can be applied such that you only trade in the direction of trend and on the trending pair. FXJay is currently trading this way ( TZ+Trend and Probability)

A good example is the last EURJPY short call and i said once target hits move stop to break even and wait for the trend to continue. So what i intend to do now is take only trades in the direction of the major trend. EURJPY would head back to 132 but instead of buying i would wait to sell on a good signal at 132.

1. Allow for major correction in a clear trend on daily
2. Look for gaps and targets in the direction of trend created during correction
3. Also look for long term targets created months ago Eg (usdjpy 105)
3. Take full position or break full position into 3 trades and average out
4. Place a stoploss of 250pips for regular pairs and 500 for volatile pairs Just incase I'm wrong on entry
5. Aim for over 500pips on regular pairs and over 1000pips on volatile pairs
6. build positions on every new signal towards Long term targets (Usdjpys a perfect example)

Once I'm done with the current EURUSD trade this is how i will be trading. by waiting for the high probability trades. may only be few monthly as long as they make huge pips
  • #278
  • Apr 6, 2016 11:41pm Apr 6, 2016 11:41pm
Though EURUSD target will hit, the trend is currently bullish. TZ principles are usually violated by Trend. i have said that so many times. thats the reason i usually say target will be hit after drawdown. based on new filters i would have held onto previous EURUSD longs staying with the trend because i know Trend violates TZ principles. skip the counter trend trades. I will be looking to long EURUSD with trend once 1.12 target is hit so hence forth use counter trend targets as zones to look for new signals in line with trend
  • #279
  • Apr 6, 2016 11:48pm Apr 6, 2016 11:48pm
GBPJPY has a counter trend target @ 160.87 Will be looking for major correction on GBPJPY any lower timeframe short signal will be good for holding towards new daily lows after correction is done
  • #280
  • Apr 6, 2016 11:49pm Apr 6, 2016 11:49pm
Quoting ephisi
GBPJPY has a counter trend target @ 160.87 Will be looking for major correction on GBPJPY any lower timeframe short signal will be good for holding towards new daily lows after correction is done
so instead of buying GBPJPY counter trend towards 160.87 we set a trap and let price come to us
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