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Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics

  • #601
  • Edited 10:05am Mar 19, 2016 8:14am | Edited 10:05am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} First you look for a market where both the 5day and the 10day are in balance on the same chart at the same time, that is step 1. you keep trying to go from looking at the 5day straight to analysis of the 20day. You have a 10 and 15 day which are closer to the near term, which you completely ignore. VBPT chapter 5 They first screen on consistency, on those futures with several timeframes in a bracket The trade selection of a chart with all TF's "bracketing"(5-20) is the best place to look for potential trades. That's not always the case,...
Ok thank you Mzvega! I studied the book 3 times, but as you can see I have overlooked that important fact. I was so focused on the reference points and my earlier bad price step sets (5) in my indi dont let me see that error. Thank you for making that clear.
I worked for some hours yesterday night to get my daily setup list right (with pyhton 3,5). I coded a little program to show me the dist combinations of the 10 and 5 for all pairs. The next days I will study the history of some pairs to get a feeling how the reference points change at that time (bracketing 5 and 10 to test-trend).
I joined up my data tables with the dist data of the tfs, Mzvega thats amazing! The dists taking out all the chaos - why did I never recognized that before?
  • #602
  • Mar 20, 2016 1:28am Mar 20, 2016 1:28am
Lurking and reading through this great thread I began to study Market Profile to focus more on value and the auction process, I wonder please if I could ask a question regarding a page I read in the CBOT Market Profile Book, I am having a difficult time in trying to understand the Range Extension explanation on page 36, I am trying to understand how the Range Extension can be double the Initial Balance area when on the chart it appears as if they are roughly the same size? I have been trying to figure this out for a few days but I just cannot see how it can appear to be double, please can you tell me what I am missing?
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  • #603
  • Edited 4:39pm Mar 20, 2016 1:38pm | Edited 4:39pm
Quoting vwap
Lurking and reading through this great thread I began to study Market Profile to focus more on value and the auction process, I wonder please if I could ask a question regarding a page I read in the CBOT Market Profile Book, I am having a difficult time in trying to understand the Range Extension explanation on page 36, I am trying to understand how the Range Extension can be double the Initial Balance area when on the chart it appears as if they are roughly the same size? I have been trying to figure this out for a few days but I just cannot see...
I apologize if this sounds a bit "Rude", but if the title of the thread or first few pages didn't tip you off that that this thread is NOT about "Market Profile" this one should have.
Quoting mzvega
......THIS IS NOT A MARKET PROFILE THREAD!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...24#post8680424

The thread is titled Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics. I asked that as a prerequisite to post here that one should read "Mind Over Markets" (in its entirety), and have read or in the process of reading "Value based Power Trading" both located in the first post of the thread.

Auction Market Value Analytics (AMVA) is an analytical, measurements based approach

Value Analytics, the Process
Value Analytics (VA) is a melding of the Market Condition analyses with a unique form of Market Profile analysis, one oriented to quantitative evaluation of reference points. This is a radical departure from the standard Market Profile, a move from pattern recognition to analytical evaluation of the profile intra-day markers.

Contrary to normal profile procedure, Value Analytics starts with Market Condition as the framework within which all trading takes place. Profile analysis plays a subsidiary, but important, role, describing the infrastructure of the market, the internal details that identify market flow and market bias. Standard profile definitions are used, but not for profile day pattern analysis. In Value Analytics the market is viewed as a continuum, a flow through time. Profile variables are analyzed for their change over time, their relative values, rather than the less useful absolute numbers used in regular profile analysis.

Profile reference points in balanced markets can show internal market bias and directionality, information not available from the market condition analyses. The end result of a day's Value Analytics analysis is a knowledge base from which traders can construct a comprehensive trading strategy, their set-up for the next day. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...54#post7447454

I was an active participant in the MP thread @ 5 years ago but my continued education, research & further study of the Auction Market Value Theory, has lead me here.

I think you want to be here:
Auction Market Theory and Market Profile http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=277528

I posted this @ 5 years ago in the mp thread ; it should answer your questions
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55#post4647155

If you don"t mind could you kindly not post any more "Market Profile" related questions here.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #604
  • Mar 21, 2016 9:23am Mar 21, 2016 9:23am
Hey Mzvega, hope you had a nice weekend. I have a question. Responsive trading=Selling Upper quadrant to the MID of the bracket (MID=target). If the 20,10 and 5 are bracketing and the 10 and 5 brake down from the top to the bottom of a expanded 20 day bracket, then wouldnt it be foolish to trade that one? Because the entry point is often around the 20 day bracket MID...

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greetings
C
  • #605
  • Edited 11:36pm Mar 21, 2016 3:56pm | Edited 11:36pm
Quoting dljonesFan
Hey Mzvega, hope you had a nice weekend. I have a question. Responsive trading=Selling Upper quadrant to the MID of the bracket (MID=target). If the 20,10 and 5 are bracketing and the 10 and 5 brake down from the top to the bottom of a expanded 20 day bracket, then wouldnt it be foolish to trade that one? Because the entry point is often around the 20 day bracket MID... {image} greetings C
By looking at the chart one might assume that. The first thing you learn when reading anything from Steildlmayer, Dalton & Jones is that this is NOT some kind of trading "System" or trading "Strategy". Its about learning to use the "data" generated from the indicator as a way to "read" the market. The graphic (profile) is just a "visual" representation of the data.

Looking at the shape of the graphic/profile doesn't tell me how many days a TF has been bracketing or trending
Looking at the shape of the graphic/profile doesn't tell me if there is an imbalance of TPOs above or below (unless you manually count each TPO)
Looking at the shape of the graphic/profile doesn't tell me if the volume of TPOs is increasing or decreasing
Looking at the shape of the graphic/profile doesn't tell me if VTY is increasing or decreasing
Looking at the shape of the graphic/profile doesn't tell me if the "rotation factor" is negative or positive
Looking at the shape of the graphic/profile doesn't tell me how well the market is facilitating trade.
Looking at the shape of the graphic/profile doesn't tell me the current trajectory of the market
etc.

This is how I interpret your question....."What should I do if the profile "looks" like this?" or "What should I do if the "shape" (profile) of my data "looks" like this?"
There is not much value in trying to analyze a "profile graphic" in the absence of information (the data)

Auction Market Value Analytics (AMVA) is an analytical, measurements based approach oriented to quantitative evaluation of reference points. A move from pattern recognition to analytical evaluation of the profile intra-day markers.

You showed me a picture (profile graphic) minus every piece of information needed to analyze it.

If you look around at the majority of MP & VP traders they're analysis sounds like this, "price will either break above x or if not price will break below x". Basically they are saying. "I have no clue, but I do know that price will either go up or it will either go down". You don't need a profile to tell you that, a dart would do just fine. It doesn't matter where you throw the dart on the chart, price will inevitably go up or it will go down.

When I do my EOD analysis I don't even look at the chart. I look at the "data" first for trade opportunities.

I don't need to look at the chart to tell which tf's are bracketing or not bracketing, its in the data, nor can look at the chart and tell how many days its been bracketing or trending without looking at the data. I cant look at the chart to measure the imbalance of TPOs, I can only see that in the data. I can't look at the chart and see if there is an increase in vty, I can only see that in the data.... etc.

All the info & data I need to make an informed trading decision is not located on the chart, but a chart is all the data you provided me.

Hypothetically, it could do anything. That's what I love about AMVT, we deal with market generated info (facts). Hypothetically, if there was a tpo imbalance in favor of sellers, decrease in VTY it could do X but if tpo imbalance in favor of sellers, decrease in VTY, but with decreased Range and it could do X.....etc., etc., etc, Hypothetically, it can do many things. There are multitudes of hypothetical's (variables), depending on the data (facts) provided. The market is "complex", not 2 sets of info will ever be identical under the same set of conditions.

We can spend hours discussing the multitudes of various hypothetical's pertaining to a single chart, but I would prefer to discuss what kind of trading decision I would make given a specific set of facts.

When you learn how to "read the data" all you need to ask yourself is. "Does the data (facts) support the trade?"

So to answer your question based on the data/info you provided me,
Without a given set of facts (data) to base my trading decision on, your guess would be as good as mine......

You might try to fill in the "gap" with the 15 day dist. There are 10 days worth of data between the 10day and the 20day that is almost 2 weeks of trading data. There is a 10 day gap in the data between the 10day & 20day, You can narrow that gap by plotting the 15day.

If you go back and look at all the charts I've posted they all include the 15day.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post8651035
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post8642366
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post8640962
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post8640946
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #606
  • Mar 21, 2016 11:27pm Mar 21, 2016 11:27pm
Ok yes, sounds logical to me. I want to avoid such misstakes like overseeing "the consistensy of brackets" again. I have read the trade selection chapter again.

Yes I will add the 15 tf. When I got my 5 and 10 brackets for position trading, then I check all the brackets for thier behaviour to get information about the condition of the market.
Are there trends or brackets and do the reference points show continuation or change (for every bracket/trend 20,15,10,5). The best thing that can happen is when all the brackets show signs of a breakout (from the brackets) or trend continuation of the longer tfs with breakout signs on the smaler brackets (minor pause in longer trend).
  • #607
  • Mar 22, 2016 9:43am Mar 22, 2016 9:43am
Quoting dljonesFan
Ok yes, sounds logical to me. I want to avoid such misstakes like overseeing "the consistensy of brackets" again. I have read the trade selection chapter again. Yes I will add the 15 tf. When I got my 5 and 10 brackets for position trading, then I check all the brackets for thier behaviour to get information about the condition of the market. Are there trends or brackets and do the reference points show continuation or change (for every bracket/trend 20,15,10,5). The best thing that can happen is when all the brackets show signs of a breakout...
Every TF has its own references....... We use the daily profiles just for Flow analysis

Here's a little info that may help...........

"A bracketing, trading range, market starts the first day after a trend is finished. Bracket width that first day is the high-low range. The second day's bracket width is the combined high-low range. And so it goes, day after day, so long as the market remains in a trading range. After about five days the bracket can be recognized. Thus, the minimum bracket time in the Trader Control Package (TCP) is five days. For convenience, the next length is ten days; then fifteen and lastly twenty days rounds out the set. Some brackets do go longer than twenty days. But as trading information ages, it generally becomes less important, hence the twenty day cutoff for TCP.

The TCP five, ten, fifteen and twenty day series relate to each other like "chinese boxes" that fit each inside the other. The five day range is usually less and never more than the ten day range; the ten day is never greater than the fifteen, and so on. If one is trading breakouts the five day comes first, the ten next and so on. Responsive trades have the largest potential being traded from the twenty day Overlay, then the fifteen, etc. It is clear that the multiple time frames offer the potential for a variety of staged trading strategies.

Once one knows the value and distribution limits (breakout prices) for a market, it is easy to trade intelligently. Staged entries and stops using the five-ten-fifteen-twenty day form can be developed.

The section on the profile educated us on the nuances of the various forms of profiles, their structures and some understanding of what they meant. An important point there was that the market is not day-to-day serially correlated, that is, a trend day today is not necessarily correlated with continued market movement tomorrow. That is, one day's market structure does not provide a very good understanding of the market as a whole."-Jones
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #608
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:17am Apr 7, 2016 4:17am
Quoting dljonesFan
Ok I understand what you mean. Thank you for bringing me back to the ground. I think my problem is the mechanical buying and selling decissions. I misunderstood the meaning of buying bracket breakouts and selling bracket breakdowns. It is not importand to be the first trader, it is important to trade the condition. Like jumping on a train when it is already underway (condition=trending) and not while it is standing and maybe start to roll in one direction or the other (bracketing, avoid mechanical entries)... Today I looked back on my statistic...
I wanted to show you some examples of the consistency of the TFs moving from bracket to trend, and by trading the change in condition, rather than price, you need not always trade the initial break. (ignore the price line, were looking at the condition of the overlays) Analysis starts April 5th

The chart on 4/5......
All TFs on the 5th are bracketing, the 5 day broke out. I missed the initial break. EOD analysis had an alert on the 10day.
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The chart on 4/6 (the following day).....
the 5day was newly trending I entered on the break of the 10day.
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And the chart today 4/7
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #609
  • Apr 7, 2016 4:50am Apr 7, 2016 4:50am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I wanted to show you some examples of the consistency of the TFs moving from bracket to trend, and by trading the change in condition, rather than price, you need not always trade the initial break. (ignore the price line, were looking at the condition of the overlays) Analysis starts April 5th The chart on 4/5...... All TFs on the 5th are bracketing, the 5 day broke out. I missed the initial break. EOD analysis had an alert on the 10day. {image} The chart on 4/6 (the following day)..... the 5day was newly trending I entered on the break...
Same thing with the nzdjpy..........
The chart on 4/5........I missed the break
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The chart on 4/6.......After EOD analysis, the following day I entered on the 10day
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The chart currently...............
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #610
  • Apr 7, 2016 11:32am Apr 7, 2016 11:32am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I wanted to show you some examples of the consistency of the TFs moving from bracket to trend, and by trading the change in condition, rather than price, you need not always trade the initial break. (ignore the price line, were looking at the condition of the overlays) Analysis starts April 5th The chart on 4/5...... All TFs on the 5th are bracketing, the 5 day broke out. I missed the initial break. EOD analysis had an alert on the 10day. {image} The chart on 4/6 (the following day)..... the 5day was newly trending I entered on the break...
The UJ as well.........

The chart on 4/5
Recent break of the 5day from bracket to trend. I missed both the 5 & 10day break. The 15day still bracketing…….
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The chart on 4/6………
The data supported the trade so I entered on a break of the 15, the following day
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The current chart today 4/7 now shows all three trending......
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #611
  • Edited Apr 8, 2016 12:45pm Apr 7, 2016 1:04pm | Edited Apr 8, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I wanted to show you some examples of the consistency of the TFs moving from bracket to trend, and by trading the change in condition, rather than price, you need not always trade the initial break. (ignore the price line, were looking at the condition of the overlays) Analysis starts April 5th The chart on 4/5...... All TFs on the 5th are bracketing, the 5 day broke out. I missed the initial break. EOD analysis had an alert on the 10day. {image} The chart on 4/6 (the following day)..... the 5day was newly trending I entered on the break...
Again with GU..........
The chart on the 4/5..........
This was not the best trade as the data was weak and ref's mixed.
I also entered on the day of the initial break, and added to my position the same day on the break of the 10day before my EOD analysis. I entered the second position without waiting for the Data to support the trade the following day. The trade is still valid, but the data suggest's some difficulty. Not the best trade, by adding to my position, exposing me to additional risk. I should have just stayed with my original position. I'll wait for EOD before I decide to close my positions......
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The chart on the 4/6..........
The following day the 5 day trending & the 10 & 15 day still bracketing
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The chart today on the 4/7..........
Trending across all TF's
EDIT: I Posted the wrong chart, now corrected
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #612
  • Apr 8, 2016 9:12am Apr 8, 2016 9:12am
Thank you for your analysis Mzvega. Iam still here

greetings
C
  • #613
  • Apr 11, 2016 8:12am Apr 11, 2016 8:12am
Hello MZVEGA,

Greetings ! I have been inactive on the thread because I've been working hard at coding. Besides, I'm still learning SQL, Python and I'm also preparing to enrol for a Masters in Statistics. However, I've been following the thread activity.
I got stuck in learning to use MySQL - don't know why I'm unable to install Libre Base on my Windows 8 PC; it's something to do with Java. I'm wondering if you could help me with the following technical issues:

1. What is the precise SQL syntax you use to derive a tally of the reference points? How do you subtract the value of a reference point such as 'Open' from the previous days value?( or How is it possible to get the difference between consecutive Rows and assign a tally of either 1 or -1 to each "difference"?) How do you do that for one column? How do you do that for several (about 36 Reference Points Columns/Attributes) ?

2. Do you use dummy variables? How do you get the 1s and -1s, to reflect on your table?
I've scoured the internet for answers and suggestions, but the examples I've seen are no where close to what I'm looking for.

3. How do you update your tables?

4. I'm wondering whether it's possible to use Python and screen about 40 pairs simultaneously - will that require opening 40 windows and attaching the indicator to all of them? I reckon that this might crash my Hard Disk because the platform hangs when I open some charts, eg xau/usd and xag/usd. Where is the destination folder from where the Python code can gain access to the data?

I know how to create databases and tables. I also know how to import tables from my drive C to the MySQL dbms using MySQL Workbench. I update my tables by using the Table Import Wizard. I'm stuck with this issue of deriving the difference of consecutive rows and tallying.
Finally, I'm unable to replicate the awesome work you and dljonesfan have done on your Flow tables, etc. How are you able to clearly show the results of your queries in Tables?

I apologise for bothering you with these questions, some of which might be considered to be "beginner" questions.
Thank you in advance for your response.
  • #614
  • Apr 11, 2016 4:35pm Apr 11, 2016 4:35pm
Quoting ocdavids
Hello MZVEGA, Greetings ! I have been inactive on the thread because I've been working hard at coding. Besides, I'm still learning SQL, Python and I'm also preparing to enrol for a Masters in Statistics. However, I've been following the thread activity. I got stuck in learning to use MySQL - don't know why I'm unable to install Libre Base on my Windows 8 PC; it's something to do with Java. I'm wondering if you could help me with the following technical issues: 1. What is the precise SQL syntax you use to derive a tally of the reference points? How...
Most of the heavy lifting & calculations I do, I do with python & excel. I use postgresql as a place to store the finish product (tables). With libre I can connect to an already existing DB (my postgresql) and it will show me all the tables in postgresql. I only use libre because I can add multiple tables to 1 form. So for each pair, I have 1 form (report) that contains tables of each of my studies. Everything I do in python I simply state df.to_csv and df.to_sql which makes copies in a csv and sql table.

df.to_csv(filename, index_col="End Time")
df.to_sql(tablename,engine,if_exists='replace')

I mostly use python (pandas & xlwings) to read & write to excel and save copies of the sheet in both sql & csv.

What I do is use a master sheet (excel wb) for each pair. Using Python I copy my raw data into a master sheet in the excel wb.

Then on another sheet, in the same excel wb I have all the formulas & calculations already in place. Thats it. So with python all I do is clear the sheet of yesterdays data from the master sheet, and import the raw data from the new day. That will automatically update the formulas on the other sheet. Then I simply read the finished product back into python (pandas df) and then df.to_csv & df.to_sql making copies in a csv folder, and table in sql (no sql syntax needed ).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Data Sheet.jpg Size: 473 KB

I only use libre to view the newly created sql tables.

If you go back to the video I posted youll see my python program open & write & update to these excel master files
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post8495114

I keep 2 chart profiles in mt4 that hold all my pairs. I open up a chart profile, click the export button on each one (takes about a minute or two). And close the platform. Thats it. I use python to copy/read the files from the mt4 "File" folder. There is no need to screen 40 open windows. Just export the data from each chart and then close the charts.

Speaking of statistics I am learning to work with R programming which I can call or use python as wrapper like I do with sql, excel. R can handle things pandas cant. Many statistic courses use R. As soon as I get proficient enough I think I will do most of my work in R & Python, and Postgresql simply for storage. Just as I can write to a sql table from python ( df.to_sql(file2,engine,if_exists='replace') ) I can also read the sql table ( df = pd.read_sql(tablename, index_col=0)

I wish you the best in your statistic 's course
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #615
  • Apr 12, 2016 12:36am Apr 12, 2016 12:36am
Quote
Most of the heavy lifting & calculations I do, ... I wish you the best in your statistic 's course

Thanks MZVEGA. That was awesome ! In the interim, I'll have to find a way to replicate what you are doing with MySQL - it's just that the Workbench GUI is not very helpful. I've had the intention to learn R for quite some time, but I need to take my time and take these things one after the other. I have much work to do in (learning) python programming.

Thanks for showing us "The Way" !
  • #616
  • Apr 14, 2016 8:32am Apr 14, 2016 8:32am
5 &10 From Bracket.......
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To trend..........
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #617
  • Apr 18, 2016 4:13am Apr 18, 2016 4:13am
Despite all this excellent information about Market Profile, I still do not see an actual clear strategy for using it. It seems to have all the makings of a revelation but it is like all charts - it plots what has happened. Yes it provides value area but as it builds during the day the patterns just like all charts can change forms to build ultimately a Bell Curve but we know not what part of the bell curve we are seeing in the "snapshot" of the day/cycle. Is there an indicator that builds the overall Market profiles as well as the daily snapshot under construction as this will give possible a clearer understanding of where price will need to go.
Does any one have or know of this type of MT4 indicator? Thank you for your consideration.
  • #618
  • Apr 18, 2016 12:37pm Apr 18, 2016 12:37pm
Quoting pbp1955
Despite all this excellent information about Market Profile, I still do not see an actual clear strategy for using it. It seems to have all the makings of a revelation but it is like all charts - it plots what has happened. Yes it provides value area but as it builds during the day the patterns just like all charts can change forms to build ultimately a Bell Curve but we know not what part of the bell curve we are seeing in the "snapshot" of the day/cycle. Is there an indicator that builds the overall Market profiles as well as the daily snapshot...
Its unfortunate that despite all this excellent info, you haven't read any of it. This thread is not about "Market Profile"

Auction Market Value Analytics (AMVA) is an analytical, measurements based approach.
Quantitative evaluation of reference points is move from "pattern recognition" to "analytical evaluation" of the profile intra-day markers.

In Value Analytics the market is viewed as a continuum, a flow through time. Profile variables are analyzed for their change over time, their relative values, rather than the less useful absolute numbers used in regular profile analysis.

I welcome you to actually read the thread........

I think your MP questions will better be addressed here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=277528
If youre looking for a MP indicator you can find one here https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/3033
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #619
  • Apr 18, 2016 4:27pm Apr 18, 2016 4:27pm
mzvega,
thank you for your reply along with your constructive and helpful comments. I apologize for my errors and truly thought that AMVA and MP were related subjects but I know better now. I did read a chunk of the thread but not all, I am not as analytical as you and your many constructive contributors. So, sorry to you all that are contributing to this thread for my inappropriate remarks and question on the subject cluttering up the thread. I hope you make satisfactory progress.
  • #620
  • Apr 28, 2016 11:21pm Apr 28, 2016 11:21pm
Quoting pbp1955
mzvega, thank you for your reply along with your constructive and helpful comments. I apologize for my errors and truly thought that AMVA and MP were related subjects but I know better now. I did read a chunk of the thread but not all, I am not as analytical as you and your many constructive contributors. So, sorry to you all that are contributing to this thread for my inappropriate remarks and question on the subject cluttering up the thread. I hope you make satisfactory progress.
Hey pbp1955,

to develop your own strategy you must understand:

1. where you are in the market (trade location)
2. condition of the market
3. your personal time frame

I would recommend you to read J.Dalton books." Mind over markets", "markets in profile" and D.Jones articles.

greetings
C
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