- #21,123
- Edited Mar 20, 2016 12:38am Mar 19, 2016 11:54pm | Edited Mar 20, 2016 12:38am
- | Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,144 Posts
USDx
Trying to figure out what might happen next, here is what i see :
- 3 bearish scenario (orange) with end-result PA drop to 93 or lower.
- Possible bearish triangle (red) is forming.
Currently usd is in difficult if not dangerous situation to trade but overall remain bearish as long as upper TL not broken to the up-side,
the thing is both bulls & bears might fight to the death to defend/attack 95 level so i expecting to see sudden 'baam' in both direction ... well, expect the unexpected is recommended.
Daily chart:
Trying to figure out what might happen next, here is what i see :
- 3 bearish scenario (orange) with end-result PA drop to 93 or lower.
- Possible bearish triangle (red) is forming.
Currently usd is in difficult if not dangerous situation to trade but overall remain bearish as long as upper TL not broken to the up-side,
the thing is both bulls & bears might fight to the death to defend/attack 95 level so i expecting to see sudden 'baam' in both direction ... well, expect the unexpected is recommended.
Daily chart:
- #21,127
- Mar 20, 2016 6:05am Mar 20, 2016 6:05am
- | Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,144 Posts
USDx Trying to figure out what might happen next, here is what i see : - 3 bearish scenario (orange) with end-result PA drop to 93 or lower. - Possible bearish triangle (red) is forming. Currently usd is in difficult if not dangerous situation to trade but overall remain bearish as long as upper TL not broken to the up-side, the thing is both bulls & bears might fight to the death to defend/attack 95 level so i expecting to see sudden 'baam' in both direction ... well, expect the unexpected is recommended. Daily chart: {image}
atm. i cannot say which way the outcome is (which should affecting usd indirectly) ... 1200/lower or 1300/higher.
- #21,130
- Mar 20, 2016 7:20am Mar 20, 2016 7:20am
- | Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,144 Posts
{quote} I say with lower high thursday and a doji bar to boot its going to test its lower bollinger band, currently at 1212.
Hi, you maybe right.
But let's take a look area between 2 horizontal red-lines (forget about B.Band) and wait for breakout..
- #21,137
- Mar 21, 2016 11:52am Mar 21, 2016 11:52am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: turning probability into profit | 1,550 Posts
Hunting High and Low
- #21,139
- Mar 21, 2016 2:49pm Mar 21, 2016 2:49pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} Do you have any analysis on the DAX? Many thanks in advance
There are basically 2 major scenarios being discussed in most of the western stoch indices:
A) very bearish scenario - the indices have fulfilled a major impulse and are now set to decline very deeply
B) bullish scenario - the indices have not yet fulfilled their major impulse and are now in a major wave 5 up
When stocks dropped post 2000 and post Lehmann, it looked very much as that scenario A would take place. But then the central banks flooded the markets with cheap money and it found its way into the stock markets. Add to that the activities of the governmental plunge protection teams.
All this lead to sharply surging prices with, in my view, destroyed short term Elliott wave patterns.
Now the bearish case A) can only be hold, when the upmove since the post 2000 low is counted as a wave B (up) of a big ABC-flat down (3-3-5). If that is the case, the B-wave should terminate now, because the wave B is now around 1.618x the wave A, and that is already at the upper range.
In other words: the DAX should drop from here and should not build a new top.
If the DAX is able to build a new top, then we are in the bullish scenario B)
If this is the case, we are either now in a wave 4 of 5, or it gets much more bullish and the DAX is in an extending wave 1, which develops through multiple 1-2, 1-2 movements, before the wave 3 of 5 sets in.
My preffered scenario is the bearish case A), because of the deflationary forces which are already underway, and my impression, that the central banks are running out of blankets.
A) bearish case
B) bullish case
- #21,140
- Mar 21, 2016 11:08pm Mar 21, 2016 11:08pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: zero | 20,603 Posts
{quote} Do you have any analysis on the DAX? Many thanks in advance
may lead to further drop soon
