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The Swamp

  • #1,221
  • Mar 19, 2016 10:06am Mar 19, 2016 10:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} now put on a 5.. and you may see some 40 pip scalps
which one do you mean , last time we tapped 0868 was on ECB day and pair dipped 0822 and rallied back to 1.1115
  • #1,222
  • Mar 19, 2016 10:33am Mar 19, 2016 10:33am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} oh wow , then one should note down every weekly and monthly ny & london closes ... {image}
its above several levels with a close. it's near that 1380,, it's been slapped down here before. either it's going to make a fresh new low 1.029x or less. or test 1.17..to test 1.7, it needs that HH and to be above 1380. this is what going to 1.1115 in november was about.. the bounce was what bears and bulls wanted.. bears to go lower and bulls to go higher. next week u may get a fresh long after 1.1100 ish.. it's probably safer than 1.17 directly. a short to 1.1100 may be the better safer trade near 1.1376 or 1380. could that have happened already last week at the high? yes. i dont know one way or the other. its all about timing. we may test 1.17, but timing can always be wrong. does it need to got back to 1.11 again? i dont know.. is there a path to a new LL? yes sure, but it's below a db.. some merit in both views.. in hindsight it will be clear at a later time. waiting for 1.1100 may be the right move to long. the larger target says 1.2470,, a smaller has a LL at 1.029x. the closes to me have held bullish levels on purpose or accident. things can change, so view can change. looking to close longs near 1.17 test.. reload pull back if 1.17xx is broken..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,223
  • Edited 11:20am Mar 19, 2016 11:08am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its above several levels with a close. it's near that 1380,, it's been slapped down here before. either it's going to make a fresh new low 1.029x or less. or test 1.17..to test 1.7, it needs that HH and to be above 1380. this is what going to 1.1115 in november was about.. the bounce was what bears and bulls wanted.. bears to go lower and bulls to go higher. next week u may get a fresh long after 1.1100 ish.. it's probably safer than 1.17 directly. a short to 1.1100 may be the better safer trade near 1.1376 or 1380. could that have happened...
we are still in 046x-146x range with 1.17xx and his valid targets as you mentioning each time that's what I've look at in the first place , 1.17 to 052x was normal as techs says also db... and 1.22 attraction is there ... yearly R1 is at 1.18 and yearly pp 1.1144 , I'll look for longs around 1.11 for 1.17 , Dec. ECB swing missed norm if you do care to check out we never met 0790 was waiting for it honestly , 1.1328 is 1/2 way to 1.1597 from 0790 , 0520-1376 with 0949 in the middle has valid 1.22 target which is fitting 1.22 attraction ... so many swings are there , I'll trust first one without LL for 247x , cheap ticket is gone when 052x spike happened last Dec. ... eh,... , edit : latest ECB swing missed 1020 , so it worth to note it down , 1.1392 lm may provide s/r for 1020 ... too much complicated
small question do you note LSE close at 16:30 GMT and NYSE at 21:00 GMT as important closing levels , thanks.
  • #1,224
  • Mar 19, 2016 11:16am Mar 19, 2016 11:16am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} which one do you mean , last time we tapped 0868 was on ECB day and pair dipped 0822 and rallied back to 1.1115
yep, and key levels are held on closes.. that's bullish to me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,225
  • Edited 11:36am Mar 19, 2016 11:23am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} which one do you mean , last time we tapped 0868 was on ECB day and pair dipped 0822 and rallied back to 1.1115
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yep, and key levels are held on closes.. that's bullish to me.
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btw , I do trade break outs on hourly charts and this what I usually see in a usual break out , pair take out last high and come back some times even lower than last candle's LL and go for a new HH , it's not worth anything and I know that I don't know sh't just want to share with you how do I read this chart if it was hourly chart ...
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  • #1,226
  • Mar 19, 2016 11:56am Mar 19, 2016 11:56am
A+ posts
  • #1,227
  • Mar 19, 2016 12:01pm Mar 19, 2016 12:01pm
I see you Goat !!!
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Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #1,228
  • Mar 19, 2016 12:02pm Mar 19, 2016 12:02pm
and just like that he's gone...
  • #1,229
  • Mar 19, 2016 12:02pm Mar 19, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting Pharm0r
A+ posts
I know last post (edit) is just full of sh't , I just wanted to share how do I read if it was hourly chart , it doesn't worth anything ...
  • #1,230
  • Mar 19, 2016 12:10pm Mar 19, 2016 12:10pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} I know last post (edit) is just full of sh't , I just want to share how do I read if it was hourly chart , it doesn't worth anything ...
I'm conflicted.

Although it didn't make a higher high, the close is higher. That is indicative of a higher high inbound, but we've also indicated a double top.........so where do we go from here?

If you look at monthly we have the same....a lower close but not a lower low....and that candle has yet to be beat.

gator's right about being wrong- I've no issue with that, the key is knowing when to hold em and when to fold em. If this recent high is beat some 70 pips away I'll fold then look to long on a retrace

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  • #1,231
  • Mar 19, 2016 12:14pm Mar 19, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting Pharm0r
A+ posts
Waw I was just reading this, I agree. Very instructive.
@edy: sick drawing skills.
  • #1,232
  • Mar 19, 2016 12:18pm Mar 19, 2016 12:18pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'm conflicted. Although it didn't make a higher high, the close is higher. That is indicative of a higher high inbound, but we've also indicated a double top.........so where do we go from here? If you look at monthly we have the same....a lower close but not a lower low....and that candle has yet to be beat. gator's right about being wrong- I've no issue with that, the key is knowing when to hold em and when to fold em. If this recent high is beat some 70 pips away I'll fold then look to long on a retrace https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDwCMxPwJ_4...
Yep I've got fooled on that lowest monthly close , probably I am going to get fooled with this one next week also , so much complicated levels and swings , that's why I do watch the first one , like usdjpy had valid target at 115.3x weeks ago but never made it and probably going for 106.xx and cancelled 115.3x with a LL , that's why I look at 247x and more on bullish side , well things changes in market I may be wrong with all of this , don't know will see will look for longs around 1.11 better if 1020 happens ... Regards

Quoting ExForX
{quote} @edy: sick drawing skills.
yep forget that one , it works on hourly trending markets , 1. we are not trending , 2. it's not hourly so ...
  • #1,233
  • Mar 19, 2016 12:25pm Mar 19, 2016 12:25pm
Too complicated

On the Weekly, for me;

Good place to buy and hold is A and AA

Good place to short with tight stop is X, XX and XXX

Bull has to take out X, XX then XXX to have a shot at 1.18 let alone 1.20

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  • #1,234
  • Mar 19, 2016 12:34pm Mar 19, 2016 12:34pm
Quoting Ken A
Too complicated On the Weekly, for me; Good place to buy and hold is A and AA Good place to short with tight stop is X, XX and XXX Bull has to take out X, XX then XXX to have a shot at 1.18 let alone 1.20 {image}
thanks for the chart and the update
  • #1,235
  • Mar 19, 2016 2:01pm Mar 19, 2016 2:01pm
when someone refers to "tight" stops......what is considered "tight"? I get the fact you probably have a larger stop in the higher TF's
the lowest I usually trade is 4HR. I see some people risk as little 4 pips....all the way to 250 or even more. To be honest with my own trading
I do much better with a larger stop to "let the trade breathe" but I'm wondering what others consider "tight"?
How many people here have telekenetic powers?...raise my hand
  • #1,236
  • Mar 19, 2016 2:40pm Mar 19, 2016 2:40pm
Quoting WestCoastCat
when someone refers to "tight" stops......what is considered "tight"? I get the fact you probably have a larger stop in the higher TF's the lowest I usually trade is 4HR. I see some people risk as little 4 pips....all the way to 250 or even more. To be honest with my own trading I do much better with a larger stop to "let the trade breathe" but I'm wondering what others consider "tight"?
well it depends on your entry level and your entry reason , your stop should be exactly where it's invalidating your entry reason , an some say it shouldn't be more than 1% risk of your capital, imho ... cheers
  • #1,237
  • Mar 19, 2016 3:27pm Mar 19, 2016 3:27pm
Quoting Ken A
Too complicated On the Weekly, for me; Good place to buy and hold is A and AA Good place to short with tight stop is X, XX and XXX Bull has to take out X, XX then XXX to have a shot at 1.18 let alone 1.20 {image}
agree in a st case..about the x ones need to be broke.. the x below 1.17 were broken last summer med term. with hh at 1.17, after that, a retrace is normal,as long as its a HL. 1.2470 remains valid. meanwhile last week may have placed a retrace to 1100 as a st norm.. and 1.029 on the schedule. one is wrong. the move to 1.04xx has never been back to its 1.22xx norm.. i have a db. i have a valid target 1.2470. place your bet..the closes are on the bull slide. the best r/r i see for a short to 1.029 to me was/is close as possible to 1.1376 w/o going above. st bears also want 1.1100.. but those closes being on the north side of key levels has leaned me toward bigger players string pulling.

the safest trade may be no trade.. wait n see what happens.. if i wasn't looking for 1.17xx tested. i may have taken a short close to 1.376.. uj is also helping me lean eu up.. uj down to 106xx its 1/2 norm 100.5
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,238
  • Mar 19, 2016 3:34pm Mar 19, 2016 3:34pm
put this shit down and enjoy the weekend.. later
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,239
  • Edited 4:15pm Mar 19, 2016 4:03pm | Edited 4:15pm
Quoting WestCoastCat
when someone refers to "tight" stops......what is considered "tight"? I get the fact you probably have a larger stop in the higher TF's the lowest I usually trade is 4HR. I see some people risk as little 4 pips....all the way to 250 or even more. To be honest with my own trading I do much better with a larger stop to "let the trade breathe" but I'm wondering what others consider "tight"?
It's complete bullshit. and I'm guilty of it.

Tight stops = early stop outs, and reentries. Again I'm admittedly guilty of it. Can be both a good and a bad....

Ken's style leads to many stop outs (as he regularly states)- but you've also seen him hold thousands of pips...it's a hard style that requires patience and persistence. The moment you give up and get tired of being stopped out it turns and goes your way.

Anyway- tight stop is arbitrary. The actual number should be stated, and often isn't....otherwise it means nothing
  • #1,240
  • Edited 5:55pm Mar 19, 2016 5:15pm | Edited 5:55pm
Spending my weekend trying to figure out gators methods.
Tried before but failed.
I see this but i don't know why..
If anyone has any interest in explaining it to me, just pm.
In the mean time i go reproduce gators numbers on my charts to see what i can find.
thanks.

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