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  • #1,053,101
  • Jan 28, 2016 10:45pm Jan 28, 2016 10:45pm
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} {quote} net equity now $13k and still you blame everything but your crappy trades {image}
I am not that concerned. It is just drawdown.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,053,102
  • Jan 28, 2016 10:49pm Jan 28, 2016 10:49pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} I am not that concerned. It is just drawdown.
you are irresponsible with your trading, that is not drawn down it is bad trading
the fact that you offer to trade other peoples money should be a crime, well it is in the UK...
  • #1,053,103
  • Jan 28, 2016 10:56pm Jan 28, 2016 10:56pm
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} you are irresponsible with your trading, that is not drawn down it is bad trading the fact that you offer to trade other peoples money should be a crime, well it is in the UK...
I don't see what's wrong. This trading is better than 95% of the hedge funds out there over the same period. Oh well.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,053,104
  • Jan 28, 2016 10:57pm Jan 28, 2016 10:57pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} so are you telling me BOJ controls the euro??? your views are appreciated but euro will follow what ECB and FED does and not BOJ. at the moment fed are dovish and ecb unless it starts printing again euro will stay in 1.08-1.1 range
NAHHH. Didn't say that. Did you think that's what I said? Wow.

BOJ just happens to be one of the best currency traders in the world. Being 3rd largest economy with multinational conglomerates everywhere for decades gives you certain advantages to currency movements in relation to your own. As opposed to HK, whick is a very cash rich little country, and very astute with their money, but lost 44 billion last year in FX.

ECB is neg and ain't going up in the near future. They don't need to print. US rate hikes is more magnetic.

Anyway we just hit 78 retrace on the move up this morning portion of intra day move, so the move up to 950 area this morning has been nullified as has that move up to 967 yesterday based on the 78 retrace earlier.

Don't be surprised if we hit 106.00 by the end of next week (and maybe 1.079x today). BOJ is probably soft targeting 130 by the end of the year to prop up their international profits. I think Toyota and other majors had their peg at 120+ end of last year, so over 125 is necessary to keep profits up.
  • #1,053,105
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:06pm Jan 28, 2016 11:06pm
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} you are irresponsible with your trading, that is not drawn down it is bad trading the fact that you offer to trade other peoples money should be a crime, well it is in the UK...
Your patience is mind blowing to me...
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #1,053,106
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:08pm Jan 28, 2016 11:08pm
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} NAHHH. Didn't say that. Did you think that's what I said? Wow. BOJ just happens to be one of the best currency traders in the world. Being 3rd largest economy with multinational conglomerates everywhere for decades gives you certain advantages to currency movements in relation to your own. As opposed to HK, whick is a very cash rich little country, and very astute with their money, but lost 44 billion last year in FX. ECB is neg and ain't going up in the near future. They don't need to print. US rate hikes is more magnetic. Anyway we just...
dont get excited. how long have you been trading. BOJ can target anything but the FED is not going to allow the dollar to appreciate as much as they did in the last cycle. euro can fall to 1.06 but before that it will touch 1.1. it has failed 1.0970 so many times now that the guy protecting that barrier will let it go next time a strong move happens
  • #1,053,107
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:10pm Jan 28, 2016 11:10pm
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} NAHHH. Didn't say that. Did you think that's what I said? Wow. BOJ just happens to be one of the best currency traders in the world. Being 3rd largest economy with multinational conglomerates everywhere for decades gives you certain advantages to currency movements in relation to your own. As opposed to HK, whick is a very cash rich little country, and very astute with their money, but lost 44 billion last year in FX. ECB is neg and ain't going up in the near future. They don't need to print. US rate hikes is more magnetic. Anyway we just...
so toyota is the only car that is sold around the world. US and Germany have as good brands as toyota. this BOJ move will backfire on them
  • #1,053,108
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:10pm Jan 28, 2016 11:10pm
Even at -98% he will have his "1500% this year" goal LOL, this guy is just hilarious. 2 days he was at -35%, yesterday -54%, now -67%, still says how great his trading is and that his goal will be achieved this year. That´s just so hilarious
  • #1,053,109
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:14pm Jan 28, 2016 11:14pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} I don't see what's wrong. This trading is better than 95% of the hedge funds out there over the same period. Oh well.
No disrespect, but it doesn't matter what/how you did over a period in the past. If investors see a 50% in a day or even a week or a year, you've wiped out a major portion life savings of some individuals or retirement plans of some companies. If you are managing a discreet fund, that kind of DD will cause a lot of withdrawals quickly.

I've seen your videos and your ideas. I think trading-wise you have some brilliant ideas, but you gotta tame the risk beast. Better to take a portion of your portfolio or a separate one and dedicate it only to high risk/high return (which I assume you are doing).

Are you still using VSA to based trades off of, like you did in your peak years with DUKAS? Or have you deviated from that? If you are still using it and getting slammed in this market with it, time to tweak it.

Anyway, you're right it takes a strong stomach to take a real 80% DD live on real money and still hold the positions and/or strategy valid. But histories have shown time and time again that trading empires have been lost with that kind of stance. At some point, one can throw in the towel and step out of the ring and come back fighting again after reassessing the market. At what point do you declare retreat or do you fight it until zero? For personal funds, all or nothing is the glory story of many movies, but for managing funds, it's the stuff of lawsuits, no matter what kind of disclaimers you have signed, fiscal responsibility to your investors is required and comes first over sticking to your trading system.
  • #1,053,110
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:15pm Jan 28, 2016 11:15pm
Oil has been sold heavy last few days. Looks like it wants to go to $20.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,053,111
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:17pm Jan 28, 2016 11:17pm
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} No disrespect, but it doesn't matter what/how you did over a period in the past. If investors see a 50% in a day or even a week or a year, you've wiped out a major portion life savings of some individuals or retirement plans of some companies. If you are managing a discreet fund, that kind of DD will cause a lot of withdrawals quickly. I've seen your videos and your ideas. I think trading-wise you have some brilliant ideas, but you gotta tame the risk beast. Better to take a portion of your portfolio or a separate one and dedicate it only...
I know. I wouldn't run this model on higher than 20:1 on someone else's portfolio. On 20:1 it is up 4% this past 2 months. On 200:1 it is down 50% this past 2 months. Lol. Big difference. But yes, on 20:1 it performs better than any hedge fund in my opinion.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,053,112
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:17pm Jan 28, 2016 11:17pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
Oil has been sold heavy last few days. Looks like it wants to go to $20.
why do you keep saying such untruths?
oil has been bought up last few days now riding at the highs......
starting to think you are a troll now as well as deluded
  • #1,053,113
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:25pm Jan 28, 2016 11:25pm
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} why do you keep saying such untruths? oil has been bought up last few days now riding at the highs...... starting to think you are a troll now as well as deluded
The selling is in the upbars. It's there. Professional took heavy shorts last few days.
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #1,053,114
  • Edited 11:43pm Jan 28, 2016 11:26pm | Edited 11:43pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} so toyota is the only car that is sold around the world. US and Germany have as good brands as toyota. this BOJ move will backfire on them
The BOJ move will make cash for the BOJ but yeah it will backfire on them. Neg rates is like a slow but definite cancer that kills.

I hope your trading is as good as your sarcasm, because you are putting words that have never been implied or printed by me.

BTW trading since 1990-ish, you do the math.

BTW, I know what you are saying, with the 08-11 range but that was PRE BOJ news. You have not fundamentally assessed how this will affect the other two majors that are tied to it. Most of the business outside of Japan and Asia that Japan does is in the USA and in EUROPE. Vis a vis businesses only, not including their direct holdings, they hold 100's of billions in other currencies in cash/trade, especially when they start repatriating those funds each year. How do you think this move will not affect other currencies?

BTW, move up to 950 this morning is NULL and VOID.

I know I feel your pain, I had to reverse a position and overall analysis this morning after I woke up.
  • #1,053,115
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:28pm Jan 28, 2016 11:28pm
Quoting rahulkghosh
{quote} The selling is in the upbars. It's there. Professional took heavy shorts last few days.
for every short there is a long......

the price is high driven there by a lack of sellers so it is incorrect to say it has been heavily sold
  • #1,053,116
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:34pm Jan 28, 2016 11:34pm
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} for every short there is a long...... the price is high driven there by a lack of sellers so it is incorrect to say it has been heavily sold
So by that token, can we now say the drive down right now is from a lack of buyers?

Not being sarcastic here. Just trying to whatever insight you have on order flow and your opinion for the sake of info.
  • #1,053,117
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:34pm Jan 28, 2016 11:34pm
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} The BOJ move will make cash for the BOJ but yeah it will backfire on them. Neg rates is like a slow but definite cancer that kills. I hope your trading is as good as your sarcasm, because you are putting words that have never been implied or printed by me. BTW trading since 1990-ish, you do the math. BTW, I know what you are saying, with the 08-11 range but that was PRE BOJ news. You have not fundamentally assessed how this will affect the other two majors that are tied to it. Most of the business outside of Japan and Asia that Japan does...
I have no positions on the euro. so it doesn't matter to me. all I am saying is it will not fall bcoz of BOJ
  • #1,053,118
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:41pm Jan 28, 2016 11:41pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I have no positions on the euro. so it doesn't matter to me. all I am saying is it will not fall bcoz of BOJ
Of course, you have no positions on. How rude of me to assume you actually had a vested interest.

We'll you can safely watch from the sidelines, nothing ventured, nothing gained, nothing lost. How nice.
  • #1,053,119
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:43pm Jan 28, 2016 11:43pm
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} The BOJ move will make cash for the BOJ but yeah it will backfire on them. Neg rates is like a slow but definite cancer that kills. I hope your trading is as good as your sarcasm, because you are putting words that have never been implied or printed by me. BTW trading since 1990-ish, you do the math. BTW, I know what you are saying, with the 08-11 range but that was PRE BOJ news. You have not fundamentally assessed how this will affect the other two majors that are tied to it. Most of the business outside of Japan and Asia that Japan does...
How do you guys see the EJ pair doing post this BoJ move? Does what BoJ just did make JPY weaker than the Euro's current position, ie will EJ rocket, or is the Euro still the weaker of the pair, so the pair will ultimately tumble? Any insights?
  • #1,053,120
  • Jan 28, 2016 11:47pm Jan 28, 2016 11:47pm
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} So by that token, can we now say the drive down right now is from a lack of buyers? Not being sarcastic here. Just trying to whatever insight you have on order flow and your opinion for the sake of info.
people look at charts and forget that there is only ever the current price for an asset

the game is a zero sum for someone to buy someone has to sell in equal volume

if price moves up it is because the demand to buy is greater than the demand to sell at a given price so supply runs out and price moves to the next available seller at a higher price and so on - standard auction process

so when crude is running at it's highest price since January it is incorrect to say it has been heavily sold because it has not, it has been equally sold and bought but the volume of the buys at each price level has been greater than that of the sellers - hence the price has moved up not down.

so you could be forgiven for saying it has been heavily bought but it is completely incorrect to say it has been heavily sold.

the concept that particular groups have amassed longs or shorts is something different again.. and in his case pure speculation there is no evidence looking at the up bars on a bar chart that this has happened you would need to see the exchange summaries to see net positions of the bigger players to get an idea of that - and that would only be for the futures market as there is nothing available for spot fx
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