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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #422,681
  • Jan 27, 2016 8:33am Jan 27, 2016 8:33am
Quoting Dano12
{quote} punishment for the bull incorrect, 3 x do not break resistance {image}
Hi, what does BTR means on your chart please?Thanks.
  • #422,682
  • Jan 27, 2016 10:14am Jan 27, 2016 10:14am
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
{quote} This is my best guess as we can never know. I think right now the expectation is the Fed is going to raise a total of four times this year. That has likely been factored into the market by now so if the tone of the release is consistent with that very little will happen. If they become more dovish (somehow signal the may not raise a total of four times this year) there could be a sharp correction and the expectations of Interest Rate Differentials (IRD) will change. That's what will drive any knee jerk reaction. What happens after that get's...
I'd say that was a pretty good explanation. In my opinion the Fed aren't helping themselves anyway by raising interests rates right now. I think there is a good chance they could back away a bit from their initial 4 rate rise rhetoric, I guess we will see shortly anyway.
  • #422,683
  • Jan 27, 2016 10:35am Jan 27, 2016 10:35am
Johnny I agree with you. I don't know if they'll soften just yet in the wording but I do think if we really begin to ramp up towards a recession - something they are trying to stall with the rate increases (as counter-intuitive as that sounds) - they will signal a willingness to halt the tightening if it should continue. Everything with the Fed is slow and measured and they look to protect the economy first and the markets (clearly) a distant second - if at all.

Until the underlying fundamentals become so glaringly poor we will probably see the fed march on this path and portfolio flows to embrace a bullish/neutral dollar position and minimize negative data until, well, they can't. Cuz the trend is your friend and all that (until it isn't) and there is a punishment to be served out for breaking away from the pack too early, even if the analysis supports it.

That of course is the opportunity for speculators to make money, if we can identify where flows/trend has separated from the fundamentals (where the bandwagon has overshot levels) we can look for areas to enter counter-trend positions. Of course if you're really good you can also ride the bandwagon up until the point you feel the over-shot has just gone too far.

Right now I'm looking for the Fed to be steady in there conviction. If that happens we may see things like the USD/CAD creep/shoot back up into levels that we just came from, and that might be a good opportunity to get short again, especially if you're of the mindset that either this year or next the Fed will adopt a softer stance if we do head into a recession and cuts or a cessation of increases is the proper course. - JP
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #422,684
  • Jan 27, 2016 12:11pm Jan 27, 2016 12:11pm
Pound Dollars not moving so sold the Euro instead lol at 109 00
  • #422,685
  • Jan 27, 2016 12:25pm Jan 27, 2016 12:25pm
Quoting dean1star
Pound Dollars not moving so sold the Euro instead lol at 109 00
Yup... it's taking a nap. Intraday analysis on the pair is mixed and the bearish break and momentum - based on the current price action - will probably drop off soon. I suspect we've walked out into no mans land on this until the UK session turns the lights on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #422,686
  • Jan 27, 2016 12:28pm Jan 27, 2016 12:28pm
so stress
  • #422,687
  • Jan 27, 2016 12:31pm Jan 27, 2016 12:31pm
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
{quote} Yup... it's taking a nap. Intraday analysis on the pair is mixed and the bearish break and momentum - based on the current price action - will probably drop off soon. I suspect we've walked out into no mans land on this until the UK session turns the lights on. {image}
Would be perfect.

Looking to BUY pound dollar at 142. Tomorrow would be good.
  • #422,688
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:25pm Jan 27, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting Imintheloo
{quote} Hi, what does BTR means on your chart please?Thanks.
https://www.forex-tsd.com/filedata/fetch?id=886000
  • #422,689
  • Jan 27, 2016 1:51pm Jan 27, 2016 1:51pm
Quoting Dano12
{quote} https://www.forex-tsd.com/filedata/fetch?id=886000
Thanks for your time.
  • #422,690
  • Jan 27, 2016 2:58pm Jan 27, 2016 2:58pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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that could be the end of short ,lets see the next trade
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might be this if,,,if long
  • #422,691
  • Edited 10:31pm Jan 27, 2016 8:35pm | Edited 10:31pm
Pull back is over, it's just the start of next down trend. Holding on to my shorts.
... I'm not crazy, just Paranoid ...
  • #422,692
  • Jan 27, 2016 9:59pm Jan 27, 2016 9:59pm
Quoting Charith
Bull back is over, it's just the start of next down trend. Holding on to my shorts.
i'm holding sell too
  • #422,693
  • Jan 27, 2016 10:36pm Jan 27, 2016 10:36pm
Quoting Andrianina96
{quote} i'm holding sell too
Do you know the reason for this stand still, they want to get rid of us bears before moving it down. They will shake the tree, if need arise. Hold tight. If more and more bulls join the game we may see a smooth run down
... I'm not crazy, just Paranoid ...
  • #422,694
  • Jan 27, 2016 10:40pm Jan 27, 2016 10:40pm
Good potential for sell but consider to cover at signs of weakened momentum. Also take in consideration if it will activate before London open it can spike through your SL then it can continue it's decline :

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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #422,695
  • Jan 27, 2016 11:23pm Jan 27, 2016 11:23pm
Expect a small rise, may be up to 4275, or slightly above, then slide down.
... I'm not crazy, just Paranoid ...
  • #422,696
  • Jan 27, 2016 11:26pm Jan 27, 2016 11:26pm
Hi All,

I'm fairly new to Forex. I have to say it's really exciting stuff. I messed around with a demo account for a while then delved straight into a live account. Ive lost as much as i've made, but I've learnt so much from my mistakes.

Anyway, I'm looking for the next trade on the next down trend. The bears are on parade this time I hope

Here we go!
  • #422,697
  • Jan 28, 2016 12:07am Jan 28, 2016 12:07am
I think the dominant trend is bearish but I think a healthy correction is coming to 1.45-1.4560ish area. With support nearby I think it was worth the risk for a small size long. Price has outrun the emas on the weekly...my two cents
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  • #422,698
  • Jan 28, 2016 12:36am Jan 28, 2016 12:36am
Quoting wyley187
I think the dominant trend is bearish but I think a healthy correction is coming to 1.45-1.4560ish area. With support nearby I think it was worth the risk for a small size long. Price has outrun the emas on the weekly...my two cents{image}
Good tip. I fully agree with your analysis.
  • #422,699
  • Jan 28, 2016 2:41am Jan 28, 2016 2:41am
Quoting elbert3
{image} that could be the end of short ,lets see the next trade {image} might be this if,,,if long
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going well see the above chart break that high then 144 i hope
  • #422,700
  • Jan 28, 2016 2:51am Jan 28, 2016 2:51am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} {image} going well see the above chart break that high then 144 i hope
Currently watch this triangle breakout and will trade it. Looks like significant upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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