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Trend Trading System

  • #1,681
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:36am Jan 25, 2016 8:36am
Great Vid Fartist. Thanks.

One topic I'd like to hear from you on is the entry. When entering a Trend trade, I find that it often requires a day or more to be free and clear of a previous Swing high/low. Personally, I try to get precise in my entries, zooming in on lower time frames. Still, often times I'll face drawdown for hours even though I'm confident the trend will take control. Is this simply a money management issue: risk a tolerable amount in case of drawdown?

I find this area to be my main weakness in catching the wave of a trend. I stop out too early in many cases.
  • #1,682
  • Jan 27, 2016 7:44am Jan 27, 2016 7:44am
Hey Fartist

Nice video. Thanks again.
Quick question. Do you wait for the position to reach 2-3R in profit before starting to trail the stops with the 50ma?
Because sometimes 2 X ATR stop is quite a distance from the 50ma.

Thanks

Redeye
  • #1,683
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:43am Jan 28, 2016 1:43am
Quoting wtmckee
Great Vid Fartist. Thanks. One topic I'd like to hear from you on is the entry. When entering a Trend trade, I find that it often requires a day or more to be free and clear of a previous Swing high/low. Personally, I try to get precise in my entries, zooming in on lower time frames. Still, often times I'll face drawdown for hours even though I'm confident the trend will take control. Is this simply a money management issue: risk a tolerable amount in case of drawdown? I find this area to be my main weakness in catching the wave of a trend. I stop...
If you're entering off the lower time frames, then you'd be subjected to the noise on that time frame, before the trend can resume itself on the higher time frame.

Stay on the higher time frame, use the necessary stops like 2 ATR, and reduce your position size so you lose no more than 1% on each trade.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,684
  • Jan 28, 2016 1:44am Jan 28, 2016 1:44am
Quoting Redeye
Hey Fartist Nice video. Thanks again. Quick question. Do you wait for the position to reach 2-3R in profit before starting to trail the stops with the 50ma? Because sometimes 2 X ATR stop is quite a distance from the 50ma. Thanks Redeye
That's a rough estimate.

You'd want to give it breathing room to ride the trend, and not trail it too tightly and get stopped out prematurely.

At times i do see my profits of 2R turn into a small loss or breakeven. That's possible and the price I pay for wanting to ride a trend.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,685
  • Jan 29, 2016 7:30am Jan 29, 2016 7:30am
Is anyone on anything with this strategy at the moment. I'm only really on the "Bund" and "EUR/CHF" also just shorted "oil". Although im a bit skeptical of how much further we can go down on that. Anyone else manage to get on to anything? Thanks.
  • #1,686
  • Jan 31, 2016 1:17pm Jan 31, 2016 1:17pm
Quoting Redeye
Is anyone on anything with this strategy at the moment. I'm only really on the "Bund" and "EUR/CHF" also just shorted "oil". Although im a bit skeptical of how much further we can go down on that. Anyone else manage to get on to anything? Thanks.
I'm out of a everything to begin the week.
I'm looking to get back into GU and GY, heading south.
I'm watching the UCad and EG too... I feel like UCad could go lower still, retesting a major monthly trend line turned support and 100ma on the daily. This may contradict your Oil Short.
On oil, I think there's overall longterm downside until $20-$24. Inventories were higher, economies are dragging, more oil is coming online. But, in the short term, the Russians and Opec are meeting, and there's an overall retracement in the markets partially due to the QE of EUR and negative interest rate strategy of Japan.
Notice the USDCAD broke an upper trendline on the monthly. A good buy area may be at 1.35-1.36.
The USDCAD daily shows the 100ma following along a trendline too. This shows 1.36 could be retested and act as support.
WTI shows a possible breakout up, or before that, a pullback to a lower trendline before a breakout to the upside.
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  • #1,687
  • Jan 31, 2016 1:19pm Jan 31, 2016 1:19pm
And I can't wait to see Fartist's new Vid!
  • #1,688
  • Feb 1, 2016 2:35am Feb 1, 2016 2:35am
This week's market analysis here...

Inserted Video


fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,689
  • Feb 1, 2016 2:41am Feb 1, 2016 2:41am
Regarding trends, I don't see any pair following it's given trend right now, per the 20ma on the 4hr chart. I hope I'm wrong.
  • #1,690
  • Feb 1, 2016 2:51am Feb 1, 2016 2:51am
Trend trading remains the best approach if only you can correctly determine the prevailing trend.
  • #1,691
  • Feb 1, 2016 12:41pm Feb 1, 2016 12:41pm
Quoting Redeye
Is anyone on anything with this strategy at the moment. I'm only really on the "Bund" and "EUR/CHF" also just shorted "oil". Although im a bit skeptical of how much further we can go down on that. Anyone else manage to get on to anything? Thanks.
Good call on oil.
Will it break this trend line?
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  • #1,692
  • Edited 8:46am Feb 2, 2016 5:37am | Edited 8:46am
OIL - Yes. I think it will/Has broken the resistance channel. I think it will just keep going down. At some point they wont have room to store it and they will give it away for a while. Then possibly pay people to take it
  • #1,693
  • Feb 2, 2016 10:44am Feb 2, 2016 10:44am
Quoting Redeye
OIL - Yes. I think it will/Has broken the resistance channel. I think it will just keep going down. At some point they wont have room to store it and they will give it away for a while. Then possibly pay people to take it

Gold looks to be trending.
  • #1,694
  • Feb 3, 2016 1:39am Feb 3, 2016 1:39am
how's everyone doing?
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,695
  • Feb 3, 2016 2:05am Feb 3, 2016 2:05am
Quoting fartist
how's everyone doing?
Doing OK thanks Fartist.

I've got positions on Oil, Bund, Gold, USD/CAD, USD/MXN, USD/ZAR, UK100.

They are all doing OK. Stop is generally trailing at 1-2R profit on each.

How are you? What positions are good for you at the moment?

Cheers

Redeye
  • #1,696
  • Feb 3, 2016 2:22am Feb 3, 2016 2:22am
I'm sitting around watching. Waiting.
Had a great ride down with GBP/JPY yesterday. Took Profit though.
NZD/USD just had a break higher.
GBP/USD broke higher too.
  • #1,697
  • Feb 3, 2016 2:27am Feb 3, 2016 2:27am
Quoting Redeye
{quote} Doing OK thanks Fartist. I've got positions on Oil, Bund, Gold, USD/CAD, USD/MXN, USD/ZAR, UK100. They are all doing OK. Stop is generally trailing at 1-2R profit on each. How are you? What positions are good for you at the moment? Cheers Redeye
Great to hear that, Redeye.

I'm long eurgbp and short sugar at the moment.

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,698
  • Feb 3, 2016 2:27am Feb 3, 2016 2:27am
Quoting wtmckee
I'm sitting around watching. Waiting. Had a great ride down with GBP/JPY yesterday. Took Profit though. NZD/USD just had a break higher. GBP/USD broke higher too.
staying on the sides is a position in itself.

cheers

fartist
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,699
  • Feb 3, 2016 2:33am Feb 3, 2016 2:33am
Quoting Redeye
{quote} Doing OK thanks Fartist. I've got positions on Oil, Bund, Gold, USD/CAD, USD/MXN, USD/ZAR, UK100. They are all doing OK. Stop is generally trailing at 1-2R profit on each. How are you? What positions are good for you at the moment? Cheers Redeye
USDCAD and USDZAR against the main trend. Just showing Down on H4!!
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
  • #1,700
  • Feb 3, 2016 2:41am Feb 3, 2016 2:41am
Quoting wtmckee
I'm sitting around watching. Waiting. Had a great ride down with GBP/JPY yesterday. Took Profit though. NZD/USD just had a break higher. GBP/USD broke higher too.
Have you took short or long on GBP/JPY?
I Win, I Lose, It's my Job... And I Love it!
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